Perry's Prototypical Patriots: Which QBs are best fits in New England?
Will the New England Patriots address the most important position in football at the 2021 NFL Draft?The Patriots brought back quarterback Cam Newton on a one-year contract for 2021, but with the No. 15 pick in this year's draft, they could add one of several talented QBs to compete with Newton for the starting job and potentially be New England's future face of the franchise.So, which quarterbacks would fit best in Foxboro? Phil Perry's "Prototypical Patriots" series continues with a look at the 2021 quarterback prospects who check the most boxes for head coach Bill Belichick.
Had their views on the quarterback position changed? Or were they just in a tight spot and acquired the best player still available to them?
When the Patriots signed Cam Newton last summer, it may have served as an indication that Bill Belichick was changing his standards for the most important position on his roster. Perhaps Belichick believed that having a quarterback factor into the running game was important. Maybe accuracy, which had long been among the most important qualities in a passer for Belichick, wasn't a requirement to the same extent it had been in the past.
The reality is the Patriots wanted more competition at quarterback last year. They signed Newton. He won the job. They re-signed Newton this offseason while still in need of competition at the quarterback position, and he's now on a backup-quarterback contract with incentives.
While Belichick is constantly looking to evolve, and while his ideas on the quarterback position and how it should be played may have pivoted at times over the years, his pact with Newton seems more representative of an insurance plan than it does a real philosophical shift.
What makes the 2021 NFL Draft interesting is that, if he invests a high draft pick in a quarterback, we'll learn more about what Belichick values at quarterback than maybe ever before. Still, based on the 11 quarterbacks Belichick has drafted we have a decent idea of what he likes and what he wants to see from draftees at that position.
Since 2000, Belichick has typically selected quarterbacks who played in Power Five conferences and stood 6-foot-2 or taller. Their hands usually measure more than nine inches. He's exclusively drafted quarterbacks who have spent at least four years in college, even if they didn't have four years of playing experience. Their career touchdown-to-interception ratio averaged out to be better than 2-to-1. Their yards per attempt was often 7.5 or better. And they normally completed more than 60 percent of their passes. Most had at least 800 pass attempts under their belts.
Not every quarterback checked every one of those boxes -- Tom Brady hit on six of the nine categories listed above; Jimmy Garoppolo played at the FCS level -- but most hit most.
For more context on what Belichick is looking for at the position, it's also worth noting what he told Browns scouts back in the 1990s when he was establishing his program there. The following is from a Cleveland scout's notes, passed along by NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah.
"[No. 1] is to make good decisions -- then arm, size, physically tough, leadership, guys look up to and have confidence in," the notes read. "A real competitor. Accurate rather than a guy with a cannon. Emphasis on our game will be on decision, timing, accuracy. Guy needs to be confident.
"Intelligence is important but not as much so as field awareness and judgement. Can't be sloppy fundamentally unsound guy with ball-handling, [techniques] ... footwork, drops, release, etc. Quarterback has to be able to throw the ball with accuracy."
Nothing there about athleticism or mobility or making the first pass-rusher miss. Would Belichick add an amendment to reflect the athletes -- particularly on the defensive line -- in the game today? Maybe. But we're going to adhere to what we've seen from Belichick in terms of his tendencies drafting quarterbacks, which means the first player listed here certainly isn't here because of his athletic traits.
Perry's Prototypical Patriots series: RBs
Height, weight: 6-foot-3, 217 pounds
Other than some shortcomings when it comes to his level of experience (17 starts, 556 attempts), Jones checks every box and then some for the Patriots. He played in the SEC, against some of the toughest defenses in the country, he won a national title, and he played under Nick Saban.
If you want to go beyond the eight categories we highlighted above (of which he hits seven) and look at Belichick's demands at the quarterback position in those 1990s Browns notes, Jones is one of the best decision-makers (56 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions in his collegiate career) and most accurate passers (no one was more accurate within 10 yards, per Pro Football Focus) in the country.
Belichick isn't looking for a cannon arm, necessarily. He's not looking for Olympic-caliber athletes. Jones has very good tape (74.3% career completion percentage, 11.0 yards per attempt) and he'll likely come with a good review from one of Belichick's closest friends in the coaching ranks. For those reasons, it's not hard to envision the Patriots taking Jones if they have the opportunity.
Height, weight: 6-foot-6, 213 pounds
The Patriots will not have the opportunity to draft Lawrence. But if they did, he'd be the first player taken by Belichick at the quarterback spot without being four full years removed from high school. That's the only one of the nine categories Lawrence doesn't satisfy here, making him one of the best fits in this year's class for the Patriots. Shocker. The guy is a generational prospect and will fit any of the 32 teams in this year's class. Moving along ...
Height, weight: 6-foot-5, 236 pounds
Trask completed 68.7 percent of his passes last season with 43 touchdowns compared to just eight picks and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt. He has just two years as a starter under his belt and showed real improvement from 2019 to 2020. That's encouraging.
He's not as accurate as guys like Lawrence or Jones. And he is the least likely player on this list to create with his legs. But if Belichick doesn't mind that aspect of Trask's game, he remains a pretty good fit relative to what Belichick has drafted in the past. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels got a closer look at Trask, who checks six of eight categories listed above, during Florida's pro day last week.
Height, weight: 6-foot-3, 227 pounds
Think Belichick would be willing to make a few exceptions here when it comes to time on the field? Fields has all the ability in the world with a 4.46-second 40-yard dash to his name and arguably the most accurate arm in the class. Fields went to Georgia in 2018 and transferred to play at Ohio State each of the last two seasons, where he showed that combination of accuracy, arm strength, size, toughness and leadership ability Belichick was looking for in Cleveland.
Exhibit A: Fields had his ribs caved in against Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinals and finished with as many incompletions (six) as he had touchdowns. Fields' decision-making, like many of his counterparts, could use sharpening. But last season it looked like Fields held onto the ball at times not because he didn't know where to go with it after his first read, but rather because he was confident in his ability to go through his reads and make a play late in the down.
After Lawrence, an argument could be made he's the safest quarterback in the class because his tools and NFL-ready pinpoint placement could make an immediate impact on Sundays.
Making the case for Justin Fields to be Patriots' next QB
Height, weight: 6-foot-3, 211 pounds
Mond is another box-checker when it comes to who the Patriots have drafted in the past. He's big enough. He played in the SEC and started games in four different seasons for the Aggies. He's close to an eight-for-eight guy on this list -- there are a couple coming -- when it comes to our oft-drafted qualities for Patriots quarterbacks, but Mond came in just under the 60-percent completions (59) and the 7.5 yards per attempt figure (7.1).
That level of production might be a tad of an issue, but Mond saw some challenging defenses without much in the way of NFL-caliber receiving help, and he was asked to execute a challenging pro-style offense loaded with tight-window throws over the middle of the field. Mond is athletic enough to escape pressure and throw accurately, and with some zip, while off-platform. He showed he could do exactly that against Alabama's pro-loaded defense last season.
Mond is still extremely mechanical behind center, though, and his footwork appears less than efficient at times. Would those marks against Mond make Belichick wary of rolling the dice on him on Day 2? If the Patriots can't come away with a quarterback in the first round, Mond may have the most upside of the next tier of passers in this year's class.
Perry: Mond among Pats' best QB options outside first round
Height, weight: 6-foot-4, 217 pounds
Mills was rated ahead of Jones, Tua Tagovailoa and every other high school quarterback in the country in 2017. His career simply hasn't taken off like those of either recent Alabama signal-caller. But Mills is a "Prototype" for reasons that go beyond his frame.
His arm is talented enough to rip passes all over the field. However, despite having four years at Stanford, he has fewer than 500 drop-backs to his name. Because he's not a next-level athlete, he'll have to do more when it comes to reading the intentions of a defense than he did for the Cardinal. Though he throws a good-looking ball, Mills may have some work to do to better identify how to get it where he wants it to go.
Mills' adjusted completion percentage was ninth in the country (78.8), but evaluators have noted some wild misses on his tape that are difficult to square with a player who may end up being drafted in the second round.
Height, weight: 6-foot-4, 224 pounds
Lance is yet another of this year's top quarterback prospects who seems unlikely to fall to the Patriots. Let's say he does, though. While drafting a 20-year-old with one real season under his belt would be a departure for a program that likes its quarterbacks well-seasoned, there are plenty of reasons to view Lance as a fit in Foxboro.
No. 1? Hard to find a quarterback who made better decisions than Lance in 2019. His absurd touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28-to-0 is evidence of that. PFF also charted him for a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.7 percent in 2019, which would've ranked him inside the top 10 in the country in 2020.
Arm? Check. Size? Check. Physically tough? There are plenty of moments where Lance is the one seeking out contact as a scrambler rather than give up a few extra yards. (That may dock him points in the decision-making category... but his toughness is apparent.) Fundamentally, he's largely sound in terms of his footwork, and evaluators have noted an improved release -- shaving off some of the dip in his throwing motion -- he showed off at his pro day.
Lance's accuracy may be an issue. His relative inexperience, his hesitancy to let it rip at times, and his dominant performance against lower-level competition may make him a risk the Patriots aren't willing to take. But Lance's time in a pro-style offense at North Dakota State -- he made pre-snap checks at the line many college quarterbacks aren't asked to make -- combined with his physical traits peg him as an intriguing fit at One Patriot Place.
Height, weight: 6-foot-2, 214 pounds
There's not much in the way of evidence that Belichick cares about the ability to make off-platform throws. That dings Wilson as far as this list goes because he's among the best in this class at working off-script.
Still, Wilson brings plenty to the table. He has enough size, and his statistical production was through the roof working behind a very good offensive line (and against a less-than-intimidating schedule) at BYU. And while Wilson has just three years in college, he has enough in-game experience (837 career attempts) to catch New England's eye.
He's also a top-notch decision-maker and one of the most accurate throwers in the class. His PFF turnover-worthy throw rate last season was just 1.2 percent (third in the country), and his adjusted completion percentage was 80.3 percent (fourth).
Since the end of the season, some have questioned the leadership role Wilson played at BYU. But his teammates and coaches have backed him publicly since those questions arose, and the fact that Wilson had to win the starter's job last offseason might help him in the eyes of those in Foxboro, where there's a premium placed on overcoming adversity.
Height, weight: 6-foot-2, 235 pounds
Newman may have been more impacted by opting out of the 2020 season than any other quarterback. After having some success in a bit of a wonky college offense with the Demon Deacons -- many of his attempts were either deep lobs or came off RPO calls -- he transferred to Georgia but never ended up taking the field for the Bulldogs. His rust showed at the Senior Bowl, where he threw for the second-highest number of inaccurate passes in practices and posted the longest average time to throw, per PFF.
Still, in his short time as the guy at Wake, Newman checked plenty of boxes for this list. In a Power Five conference, he had a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (35-to-16), 7.8 yards per attempt and a completion percentage just over 60 percent.
