Patriots

Patriots

You have to admit: It's an enticing scenario.

Just weeks after losing Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots swing a trade to land Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Nick Saban-groomed quarterback becomes a star in New England, and the Brady-less Patriots don't miss a beat. Dynasty intact.

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The Tua-to-New England rumors have picked up steam amid reports that the Miami Dolphins may try to trade up to the No. 1 overall pick to draft LSU's Joe Burrow instead of targeting Tagovailoa.

The Boston Globe's Ben Volin then laid out a scenario in which the Patriots trade up to the Lions' No. 3 pick to select Tagovailoa, sending Detroit some combination of draft picks that includes their first-rounder (No. 23 overall) while potentially adding wide receiver Julian Edelman in the deal.

That'd be a major shakeup, especially if the Patriots move Edelman. So, is it worth spending that much capital to land the quarterback you covet?

Fortunately, there's plenty of recent precedent.

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Consider this stat: Seven of the 11 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2017 have been acquired by a team trading up in the draft.

Here are the seven QB and the deals teams swung to land them:

 

Mitchell Trubisky, No. 2 overall (Bears)
Bears trade their 2017 first-round pick (No. 3; Solomon Thomas), 2017 third-round pick (No. 67) , 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 111) and 2018 third-round pick to San Francisco.

Patrick Mahomes, No. 10 overall (Chiefs)
Chiefs trade their 2017 first-round pick (No. 27; Tre'Davious White), 2017 third-round pick (No. 91) and 2018 first-round pick to Bills.

Deshaun Watson, No. 12 overall (Texans)
Texans trade their 2017 first-round pick (No. 25; Jabril Peppers) and 2018 first-round pick to Browns.

Sam Darnold, No. 3 overall (Jets)
Jets trade their 2018 first-round pick (No. 6; Quenton Nelson), 2018 second-round pick (No. 37), 2018 second-round pick (No. 49) and 2019 second-round pick to Colts.

Josh Allen, No. 7 overall (Bills)
Bills receive a 2018 seventh-round pick and trade their 2018 first-round pick (No. 12; Vita Vea), 2018 second-round pick (No. 53) and 2018 second-round pick to Buccaneers.

Josh Rosen, No. 10 overall (Cardinals)
Cardinals trade their 2018 first-round pick (No. 15; Kolton Miller), 2018 third-round pick and 2018 fifth-round pick to Raiders.

Lamar Jackson, No. 32 overall (Ravens)
Ravens receive a 2018 fourth-round pick and trade their 2018 second-round pick (No. 52), 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 125) and 2019 second-round pick to Eagles.

Rosen was a swing-and-a-miss, and Trubisky has underwhelmed so far. But three of these trades were absolute home runs -- Mahomes, Watson and Jackson -- while Darnold and Allen have the potential to be solid franchise quarterbacks, as well.

The takeaway: These teams had good reason to move up and land the QB of their dreams, and in several cases, they were justified.

Does this mean the Patriots should go all-out for Tua? Not necessarily. Belichick would need to covet Tagovailoa the same way the Chiefs coveted Mahomes, and our Tom E. Curran has reported New England is confident in the QB duo of Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer.

If the Patriots do have a QB atop their draft board, though -- whether that's Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert or Jordan Love -- history suggests a trade-up could be worth it.