Patriots

Star trainer predicts Patriots' N'Keal Harry will have 1,000-yard rookie season

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USA TODAY Sports

Star trainer predicts Patriots' N'Keal Harry will have 1,000-yard rookie season

The New England Patriots' selection of N'Keal Harry in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft received rave reviews in expert draft grades, but media members aren't the only people excited for what the future holds for the former Arizona State wide receiver.

Famed trainer Travelle Gaines, whose clients have included NFL stars such as Saquon Barkley and Antonio Brown, worked with Harry before the draft. Gaines explained on the latest "Lefkoe Show" from Bleacher Report why he's confident Harry will be a success in the NFL.

"How focused he is," Gaines said. "He's almost oblivious to what's going on outside around him. He's just focused on training and playing football."

Well, that sounds like the ideal player for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. 

Gaines also was asked what type of player Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is getting in Harry.

"(Brady) has an athlete that's going to compete and he has an athlete that can go up and get (the ball)," Gaines said. "And he's a lot faster than people think. He returned kickoffs and punts this year. He wasn't just a receiver. Again, I definitely think he's going to be a 1,000-yard receiver as a rookie. I definitely think he's probably going to win NFL Rookie of the Year. And I'm not saying that because I trained him, I'm saying that because he's in the best position of all offensive rookies in the NFL this year."

Oddsmakers are a little less optimistic about Harry's chances of winning Rookie of the Year. Caesars Palace had him at +1000 (fourth-best odds) to win the award earlier this month.

He's not a bad bet, though. Harry has a real chance to be a critical player in the Patriots' offense, especially after the offseason departures of tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson. We also don't know if suspended wideout  Josh Gordon will be eligible to play at all in 2019.

It's not unreasonable to think Harry could hit the 1,000-yard mark and be a top contender for Rookie of the Year. And according to Gaines, the young wide receiver certainly has the work ethic needed to reach those goals.

Ex-NFL QB compares N'Keal Harry to Larry Fitzgerald>>>

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The Stidham Plan: Patriots can aid young QB by getting creative with athletic fullback options

The Stidham Plan: Patriots can aid young QB by getting creative with athletic fullback options

Bill Belichick readily admitted that his offense would have to change with Tom Brady out of the picture.

"Over the last two decades," Belichick said back in April, "everything we did, every single decision we made in terms of major planning, was made with the idea of how to make things best for Tom Brady . . . Whoever the quarterback is, we'll try to make things work smoothly and efficiently for that player and take advantage of his strengths and skills." 

For now, let's assume the quarterback in 2020 will be Jarrett Stidham. How can Belichick and Josh McDaniels make him comfortable? How can they accentuate his strengths and hide his weaknesses?

We won't know for sure until the Patriots take the field. But emphasizing looks that have taken the league by storm of late, looks that have simplified things for good-but-not-great quarterbacks, looks that Belichick's pal Mike Shanahan is credited with popularizing... That might make things interesting.

The first installment of our "Stidham Plan" series takes a look at how a couple of newly-added athletic fullback options might help make the second-year quarterback's life a little easier.

* * *

Kyle Juszczyk is a unicorn at the fullback position in today's NFL. 

The Swiss Army knife in Kyle Shanahan's offense played over 100 snaps more than any other fullback in 2019. He caught more passes (20) for more yards (239) and picked up more yards after contact (155) for the Niners than anyone else at that spot. The $5.25 million average annual value of his contract, signed in 2017, isn't gaudy but it's more than $2 million more per year than the next fullback contract. His $7 million guaranteed at signing was almost double that of the next best fullback deal.

Juszczyk is an outlier, a high-IQ hybrid whose multi-faceted impact on San Francisco's offense would be difficult for anyone to replicate.

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But that won't keep new Patriots fullback Danny Vitale from trying.

"He’s kind of the prime example of what a lot of teams are moving towards," Vitale said last week. "Obviously, every offense is different, but he’s been able to do a lot of great things since his career in Baltimore and now obviously all the way into San Fran. 

"He’s kind of the player that I like to model my game after in terms of the versatility aspect. Different teams have different schemes and need their fullbacks to fill different roles, so obviously that’s what your scouting departments are looking for is guys who can fill that role that they need. But, yeah, I think he’s a good guy to look up to."

Versatile as he hopes to be, can Vitale provide the same kind of return to the Patriots that Juszczyk has provided the Niners? Can he help prop up a passing game led by Jarrett Stidham in the same way Juszczyk has helped to boost Jimmy Garoppolo's effectiveness?

Vitale's one-year contract with New England includes $100,000 in guarantees, indicating he's not a lock to make the 2020 roster. But the Patriots also added a hybrid player with one of its two tight end additions in this year's draft when they selected Dalton Keene out of Virginia Tech at the end of the third round. At least one them — and maybe both — figures to add an athletic wrinkle to a position the Patriots have long valued. 

NEW ERA IN NEW ENGLAND

When James Develin aligned in the I-formation, neck roll jutting up from the back of his collar, he was power personified for the Patriots. The 6-foot-3, 255-pound bruiser helped the team rack up over 2,000 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns in the 2018 regular season. Then in the playoffs that year he was on the field for each of New England's nine rushing touchdowns en route to a Lombardi Trophy.

After eight years with the Patriots, limited to two games in 2019 because of a neck injury, Develin retired this offseason.

"It’s definitely some pretty dang big shoes to fill," Vitale said of Develin. "James is a hell of a player. I’ve enjoyed watching him, really since I got into the league now. He was really a role model at the position, which as a fullback, a lot of people don’t typically notice how important that role can be. 

"I think it was pretty clear how important James was to this Patriot team over the last however many years. Definitely have some really big shoes to fill, but I’m really looking forward to that opportunity, as well as working with a lot of the other guys. It'll be fun."

Vitale, though, is a different type of fullback than what the Patriots have been accustomed to. He's about 15 pounds lighter than Develin, and tested similarly to Juszczyk as an athlete coming out of college.

Compared to other fullbacks invited to the combine over the years, Vitale was an elite performer in Indy in 2016. At 6-foot-1, 239 pounds he recorded a 4.60 40-yard dash (91st percentile), a 38.5-inch vertical (96th), a 123-inch broad (95th) and a 4.12-second short shuttle (91st). Juszczyk was listed at 6-foot-1, 235 coming out of college and recorded a 4.71 40, a 37-inch vertical, a 121-inch broad jump and a 4.19-second short shuttle at his pro day.

Keene, meanwhile, has the size to better replicate Develin's skill set. He measured in at 6-foot-4, 253 pounds before the draft and was often used as a lead blocker out of the backfield in Virginia Tech's offense. 

While Keene could be the team's next Develin, he looks like a more dynamic passing-game option. A determined and elusive runner with the ball in his hands for the Hokies, he averaged 9.7 yards after the catch per reception in his career. Keene also possesses impressive movement skills, having recorded a 125-inch broad jump (94th percentile for tight ends) and a 4.19 short shuttle (85th) at this year's combine, indicating he has some real receiving chops.

Neither Keene nor Vitale has yet had the opportunity to show what they can do to replace the toughness quotient Develin provided the Patriots. But if either earns a role, he'll add something Josh McDaniels hasn't really had at the fullback spot of late: explosive athleticism to handle more in the passing game.

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TASTE OF SAN FRANCISCO?

Juszczyk's raw receiving numbers aren't all that impressive. But part of the reason he allowed the Niners to be as efficient as they were in 2019 was because of his ability to help keep opponents guessing.

He could play the traditional lead fullback role. He could leak out of the backfield on play-action throws. He could align as an in-line tight end, in the slot, or as an H-back on the wing. He gave Garoppolo a matchup weapon when covered by linebackers. His mere presence in the huddle helped provide the Niners with more favorable looks against which to throw by encouraging opposing defensive coordinators, fearing smash-mouth run plays, to send bigger (and typically slower) defenders onto the field. 

Opponents had to make a choice when they saw Juszczyk on the field as part of Shanahan's attack: Match the fullback's 30 or so snaps per game by keeping a linebacker on the field and risk getting exposed in coverage, or respond with an extra defensive back to protect against the pass and get run over.

Not ideal. 

That lose-lose proposition and the defensive uncertainty that came with it allowed the Niners to be extremely effective in using play-action last season. They were second in the NFL with 10.8 yards per play-action attempt, which in turn helped make Garoppolo a top-10 passer according to certain statistical categories like yards per attempt (third), completion percentage (fourth) and quarterback rating (eighth). 

As a member of the Packers last season, Vitale had some of the same responsibilities Juszczyk did. In Green Bay, where Shanahan disciple Matt LaFleur runs the show offensively, Vitale aligned as a lead blocker in traditional I-formation packages. He led the way for running backs on wide-zone runs. He motioned into the slot to run routes, as he did at Northwestern. He motioned from the backfield into a wing position to get a better angle as a blocker.

He lined up as a wide receiver — as Develin often did — to serve as a man-zone indicator for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. (If a linebacker went with Vitale to the boundary, the defense was likely playing man-to-man. If a corner stood across from Vitale, it was likely zone.) He served as the lone back next to Rodgers in shotgun situations, able to take a hand-off, run a route or pass-protect. Vitale also leaked out of the backfield on play-action passes, and his speed occasionally provided chunk-play opportunities.

Though Vitale (11 snaps per game) typically played much less than Juszczyk (33 snaps per game) last season, he had games where he might carry out half a dozen different roles in his limited playing time. Does that make an athletic fullback like Vitale (or Keene) the kind of piece who can help the Patriots shift toward an offensive attack like the one featured in San Francisco? 

Couldn't hurt. And given the results produced by Shanahan-influenced schemes in other places, it might be worth a shot.

NUMBERS DON'T LIE

The Niners style of offense and others born from it love their fullbacks.

Gary Kubiak worked under Kyle's dad Mike Shanahan in Denver in the 1990s and helped sow the seeds for the wide-zone run, bootleg play-action attacks now strewn across the league. His fingerprints are all over the offense in Minnesota, which used fullback C.J. Ham (354 snaps) almost as often as the Niners used Juszczyk (388) in the 2019 regular season.

After letting Vitale walk in free agency, the Packers used a third-round pick to draft an athletic hybrid fullback-tight end option in Cincinnati's Josiah Deguara.

The Rams almost never abandon their 11-personnel package (one back, one tight end, three wideouts) but under former Mike Shanahan pupil Sean McVay they had one of only 14 fullbacks to play at least 100 snaps last season: Derek Watt. 

Why the affinity for fullbacks? 

They help the running game, of course. They change the math for defenders wondering which gaps to play against the run. Their power, momentum and (usually) low center of gravity helps them clear space. And the fact that fullbacks are relatively scarce — the spread-happy college game isn't producing them — means there aren't many offenses that use them, which means there aren't many defenses that devote much in the way of time to defending them. 

But perhaps more importantly, for offenses that so heavily rely on successful running games and passing games that thrive off the deception that play-action creates, having someone who can make pass plays look like runs — someone who then can become a legitimate receiving threat himself — can open up a world of possibilities.

"Across the league, in general, teams average more yards per pass attempt and have a higher success rate when you're using heavier personnel out on the field," Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Stats told us earlier this offseason. "You're controlling the personnel that the defense has to play. Then you can take advantage of these guys when you have tight ends that are as good at catching the ball as they are now. When you have fullbacks that can catch the ball as well as they can now. It's a massive X-factor . . . 

"Far too often teams will use a fullback because it's a run play and he's a run-blocker. As long as you're using that fullback to sometimes catch the ball, to block in pass protection, to do a variety of things, it's very effective to have that guy out on the field. I think that more teams do need to incorporate them, as long as it's a dynamic enough player."

It might come as little surprise that some of the Shanahan-style teams have already figured that out. The two clubs that ran the highest percentage of two-back sets in the NFL last season? San Francisco and Minnesota. 

A whopping 39 percent of the Niners offense came with two backs on the field last year. Out of 21 personnel, they were deemed successful on 55 percent of their plays. Out of 22 personnel, they were successful on 52 percent of their plays. Compared to their 43 percent success rate out of 11 and 12 personnel packages, they experienced a significant up-tick in efficiency with two backs on the field. 

The Vikings, meanwhile, had two backs on the field for 32 percent of their plays. From those sets, their yards per pass attempt figure (8.7) was about a full yard higher than it was when they were in 11 personnel (7.6) or 12 personnel (7.8). In essence, when they replaced a pass-catcher at receiver or tight end in their huddle with a fullback . . . they became a better passing offense. Counter-intuitive maybe. But because of how it gets defenses to react, it works. 

It's no coincidence, either, that the play-action figures for fullback-friendly offenses in San Francisco and Minnesota were among the best in football. 

Garoppolo (second) and Kirk Cousins (fourth) were among the league leaders in yards per attempt out of play-action last season. No one threw more touchdown passes off play-action than Cousins (14), while Garoppolo was fifth in that category (9). Only Jared Goff (1,703), playing in a similar offense under McVay, threw for more play-action yards than Garoppolo (1,667), while Cousins was fourth in that category (1,373). Cousins (fifth) and Garoppolo (ninth) were both among the best in football when it came to completion percentage off play-action.

When you amass all of Cousins' and Garoppolo's attempts — play-action or no play-action — they racked up elite statistics. They were No. 4 (Cousins) and No. 8 (Garoppolo), respectively, in quarterback rating. They were No. 3 (Garoppolo) and No. 7 (Cousins) in yards per attempt. They were tied at No. 4 in completion percentage. But is either an elite quarterback? 

The numbers tell the story: That style of offense — the under-center, play-action-heavy, wide-zone-running, fullback-infused, bootleg attack — is widely considered to be extremely quarterback friendly. It simplifies reads. It buys quarterbacks time to find open windows. It buys receivers time to create open windows. For a young quarterback with some mobility, a quarterback like Stidham, it can do wonders.

Does that mean the Patriots should be all-in? Not necessarily. Later in this series, we'll dive into the challenges involved in a full-on commitment of that nature.

But if Belichick and McDaniels wanted to emphasize those types of looks as they find an offensive identity following Brady's departure, having athletic options at fullback to deploy all over formations and sell play-action could help them achieve that end.

Coming next week: Patriots rookie tight ends could make for endless opportunities

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Oddsmakers drop Patriots' 2020 NFL season win total to new low

Oddsmakers drop Patriots' 2020 NFL season win total to new low

Confidence in the New England Patriots entering the 2020 NFL season seems to be waning.

Well, at least among oddsmakers.

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The Patriots, despite losing longtime quarterback Tom Brady to free agency in March, have remained the betting favorite to win the AFC East for most of the offseason. That changed, recently, when the Buffalo Bills became the favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim the division crown next season.

New England also had the third-best odds to win the AFC in 2020 throughout the offseason, but it has fallen to fourth at +1200. The Indianapolis Colts are just ahead of the Patriots in third with +1100 odds to win the conference.

The Patriots' season win total has been lowered, too. Here's the latest number and odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Over 8.5 wins: -130
Under 8.5 wins: +107

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It's strange to see the Patriots' win total be less than 10, but without a top-tier quarterback leading the offense, it's tough to just assume New England's streak of 17 consecutive seasons with 10-plus wins will continue.

The schedule also makes it hard for the Patriots to hit that 10-win milestone. Two of their first five games are against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and perennial NFC contenders the Seattle Seahawks. Both games are on the road. After a Week 6 bye, the Patriots begin a stretch of five weeks during which they play four playoff teams from 2019, including the Baltimore Ravens and defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. The schedule gets easier after that with New England's final six games including just one playoff team from last season. The Patriots' last two games also are at home.

That said, the Patriots don't need to extend their 10-win season streak to hit the over on this win total prop bet. An above-average performance from Stidham, a veteran defense that's still really talented, and the best head coach in NFL history should be enough for the Patriots to reach nine or more wins.