This surprising Patriots trend doesn't bode well for Eagles matchup


The New England Patriots have opened as 3.5-point road favorites for their Week 11 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.

That should surprise no one: The Patriots have been favorites in their previous 38 road games dating to Nov. 2014 and generally are favored against any opponent they play. That's what happens when you win 11 or more games in nine consecutive seasons.

What may surprise you, though, is that New England isn't all that great as a road favorite.

Here are the results from the Patriots' last 13 regular-season games as road favorites since the beginning of the 2018 campaign, courtesy of the "Boston Sports Info" Twitter account:

Week 9 at Baltimore: 20-37 LOSS
Week 7 at New York Jets: 33-0 WIN
Week 5 at Washington: 33-7 WIN
Week 4 at Buffalo: 16-10 WIN
Week 2 at Miami: 43-0 WIN

Week 15 at Pittsburgh: 10-17 LOSS
Week 14 at Miami: 33-34 LOSS
Week 12 at New York Jets: 27-13 WIN
Week 10 at Tennessee: 10-34 LOSS
Week 8 at Buffalo: 25-6 WIN
Week 7 at Chicago: 38-31 WIN
Week 3 at Detroit: 10-26 LOSS
Week 2 at Jacksonville: 20-31 LOSS

The Patriots have lost six times as road favorites since the beginning of last season and are 7-6 in those contests. 

As you may have gathered, that's the same number of regular-season games they've lost overall in that span, meaning all of their losses in their last 25 regular-season games have come as road favorites.


New England had better hope that 3.5-point line doesn't waver, either. According to Boston Sports Info, quarterback Tom Brady actually has a losing record (10-15) in his career when the Patriots are favored by three points or fewer.

That stat makes sense when you get past the sticker shock: It's hard for any club to beat good teams on the road, and New England's incredible run of success under Brady and Bill Belichick means it's favored in virtually every game, even on the road versus quality opponents.

The Patriots are coming off one of those losses in Baltimore earlier this month, and the Eagles will present another tough test in Sunday's Super Bowl LII rematch.

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