Simulating Pats' 2020 season if Tom Brady was still QB
What if Tom Brady had stayed with the Patriots in 2020? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated New England's 2020 season with TB12 under center, and the results were pretty fascinating.
Editors Note: Strat-O-Matic, the market leader in sports simulation, has partnered with NBC Sports Boston to build simulation experiences for "What If Wednesdays.”
Tom Brady's legacy in Foxboro is unassailable. The Patriots quarterback helped lead New England to six Super Bowl championships over 20 seasons and will go down as the greatest player in franchise history, if not the entire NFL.
But after the Patriots sputtered to a 7-9 record in 2020 while Brady lifted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl title, it's hard not to wonder: What if Brady had stayed with the Patriots in 2020?
That's where our partners at Strat-O-Matic come in.
In the first installment of our "What If" series, the sports simulation company played out the Patriots' entire 2020 season with their same roster, but with Brady, not Cam Newton, under center.
The results go well beyond New England's final record. There are complete box scores for every game, season stats for every Patriots player and a full simulation of the 2020 playoffs.
So, how did the Brady version of the 2020 Pats fare? Here are five observations from Strat-O-Matic's data.
Here's a simple way to quantify Brady's importance to New England's success: The Patriots won seven games with Newton and 13 with Brady.
In Strat-O-Matic's simulation, the Brady difference manifests itself around Thanksgiving. Both the Brady Patriots and the Newton Patriots hover around .500 through nine games, but TB12 helps his squad win seven of its last eight regular-season contests, then win two playoff games before bowing out to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
In fact, Meyers is a borderline elite wideout with Brady throwing to him in 2020. The second-year wide receiver finishes three catches shy of 100 and three yards shy of 1,000, posting the best campaign by a Patriots receiver not named Julian Edelman in a long time.
Meanwhile, Harry (474 yards) and Edelman (484 yards) combine for just 958 receiving yards, proving that the pass-catching gem of the Patriots' 2019 rookie class was the guy they didn't draft.
Brady's 3,777 passing yards in this simulation is his lowest total in a 16-game season since 2006, while his 16 interceptions are a career high. But TB12 still has a much better passing season than Newton and his 2,567 yards.
Interestingly enough, Brady's 2.7 percent interception rate is the same as Newton's (10 interceptions on 368 attempts). But TB12 cuts back on the turnovers in the postseason with one pick in three games.
Brady works his usual postseason magic in the Wild Card round with 368 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans. But New England's defense steps up in the Divisional round, as Lawrence Guy's fourth-quarter sack of Josh Allen in his own end zone proves to be the difference-maker.
Turns out postseason experience means something. Strat-O-Matic has Tampa Bay at 11-5 without Brady (all NFC teams keep their actual records in this simulation), and Jameis Winston helps his squad squeak by Washington in the Wild Card round.
But the eventual NFC champion New Orleans Saints wallop the Bucs 44-9 in the Divisional Round to send them home early.
