Trying to guess what the Patriots will do in the draft in two weeks? Don’t just look at empty spots at the top of the depth chart (and there really aren’t that many). Don’t just look at where they could use an upgrade.
Look at the list of guys with expiring contracts at the end of 2023 and use that as a guide.
It’s a group laden with talent. On the defensive side, the three big names are safety Kyle Dugger, edge Josh Uche and linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley.
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On offense, their steadiest lineman -- guard Mike Onwenu -- is up after 2023, as is the sometimes dominant Trent Brown. Both tight ends -- Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki -- are on the last year of their deals. And two wideouts who tantalize with peekaboo flashes of explosiveness -- Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker -- are done as well.
Last week, I threw those names out on Twitter and asked my followers which three guys they’d prioritize re-signing.
I got 391 replies and the overwhelming majority went with the obvious: Dugger, Onwenu and Uche. Agreed. Dugger has developed into a Pro Bowl-level player (as predicted) and teammate Matthew Judon was already talking about having to "write Kyle a blank check" when it comes time to re-sign him.
According to Pro Football Focus, Onwenu annually grades out as one of the best guards in the league. Like, "as good as Joe Thuney/Quenton Nelson" good.
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And while Uche’s 2022 sack bonanza (11.5 but with a total of six coming in demolitions of Arizona and Indy) invites skepticism, having watched him dominate offseason reps with speed and bend in the past three seasons, he didn’t just luck into the production. The unique skill is there and was unleashed in ’22.
We’ll get into the projected cost to retain those guys in a minute. Meanwhile, let’s look at the other expirees. Two wideouts. Two tight ends. A tackle.
Where’s that lead the Patriots in the draft? Pass-catchers. They need ‘em. Fortunately, this draft’s got ‘em.
If Parker and Bourne depart after 2023, the wideouts under contract will be Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster. A lot can happen between now and next March. I remain the guy who believed Bourne was a production dynamo about to be tapped in 2022. Maybe both guys find their muse in O’Brien’s offense and the Patriots retain them. But neither is a week-in, week-out danger at this point in their careers. An upgrade is needed and finding a complement to the presumed outside threat that the Patriots have in Thornton is a priority.
Which we’ve all recognized at this point and devoted mounds of time to discussing. Is that a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba? A late first on Zay Flowers? A "reach" on Flowers at 14? A snatching of Tank Dell in the later rounds? There is business to be done and a wideout will be coming aboard. Bet on it.
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As for tight end? Also, a must. Regardless of how the game’s changed, Bill Belichick still loves his tight ends. The guy who spent first-rounders on tight ends in 2002 and 2004, doubled up on them again in 2010 and saw offensive records set, kept signing free agents to marry to Rob Gronkowski (Scott Chandler, Martellus Bennett), burned two third-rounders on the position in 2020 and splurged on them in 2021 won’t be caught tight end-less after this season. And he almost certainly isn’t going to wait until guys are leaving before he addresses the spot.
Fortunately, this is a boom year at the position. You can find big ones, fast ones, highly-productive ones and value picks.
Belichick could opt to find a WR/TE hybrid like Gesicki or Travis Kelce in Iowa’s Sam LaPorta and kill two birds with one stone in the second round after spending on corner or tackle in the first. It’s great conversation fodder.
But getting back to the guys the Patriots DO NOT want to lose -- Dugger, Onwenu and Uche -- the Patriots may have to plan on dealing with some big numbers, especially with the latter two.
Atlanta set the market for right guards when they re-signed Chris Lindstrom to a five-year, $ 20 million deal with $ 62.7 million in guarantees this offseason. Regardless of the fact Lindstrom was a first-rounder and Onwenu was a sixth, it’s by now established that the league missed on Onwenu. He’s the best lineman on what’s become a despairingly inconsistent line. He's gonna be pricey.
As for Uche, there are seven pass-rushers making $ 20 million or more annually. He doesn’t have a case to join them, even if he lights it up in 2023. There are 12 making between $10 million and $ 15 million annually. If Uche follows up 2022 with a similar season, that’s not unreasonable. Meanwhile, Judon at the other end of the line expires in 2024. So that will be kept in mind.
And then there’s Dugger. The Falcons plucked Jessie Bates from Cincy with a four-year, $64 million deal which will likely be a comp for Dugger.
Theoretically, the Patriots could lock one of these guys down before the season. Imagine an offseason in which the team fixes the incomprehensible mess it made of its offensive coaching, upgrades at tight end, drafts a wide receiver, tackle, corner and a tight end and then re-ups with Dugger?
That would be exceptionally good business.