FOXBORO -- The last time the Patriots saw Andrew Luck, he was one of the most prolific deep-ball throwers in the NFL. The quarterback the Patriots have seen on tape this week is different.
Despite the fact that only one quarterback (Kirk Cousins) has more pass attempts than Luck through four games this season, these days Luck is among the least-likely at his position to throw long.
Back off of a shoulder injury that robbed him of the 2017 season, Luck is attempting passes that travel 20 yards or more in the air on just seven percent of his throws, according to Pro Football Focus. That's the lowest number of any starting quarterback outside of Blake Bortles (6.7). Luck's 119 yards on those throws is 28th in the league.
In 2015, the last time the Colts and Patriots met, Luck was a deep-passing fiend. He threw long on 16.4 percent of his throws (second in the league) in an injury-shortened season.
In 2014, the last time the Colts were at Gillette Stadium, Luck was ninth in deep-throw percentage (14.3), and no one was more productive on those throws as he racked up 1,387 yards on passes of 20 yards or more. That was almost 300 yards more than the next-best quarterback in that category (Peyton Manning, 1,098).
Luck may be targeting different areas of the field in 2018, but the Patriots are clearly preparing for the worst -- meaning his best.
"See him slinging that thing everywhere," Devin McCourty said when asked for his assessment of Luck's return.
"I think for football, it was good to see him back out there. I think as players, anytime you see a guy hurt and go through a long recovery, seeing him back out there. But, as a defensive player, you see it as stress it puts on you . . . He’s still the same type of guy that can get the ball wherever he wants."
And that may be true. In Luck's most recent outing, an overtime loss to the Texans, he aired it out a little more than he had in previous weeks. He threw long six times on 62 attempts (10.7 percent) for 64 of his 464 yards.
Still, four games is a large enough sample size to be able to say that the Colts offense has not been one that will frequently threaten the deep part of the field. Luck's average depth of target is 6.4 yards, which is 30th in the NFL. His 6.1 yards per attempt is 31st in football.
With TY Hilton expected to miss Thursday's game, Luck's best receiver and deep threat, the offense might become even more focused on the short-to-intermediate range.
What does that mean for the Patriots defense? It might mean fewer split-safety looks and more post-safety coverages with an extra defender in the box to clog the short-to-intermediate area of the field. It could mean more aggressive play in the secondary, anticipating that the ball will be out relatively quickly. It may mean the Patriots will be on high alert to slow down Indy's pass-catching back Nyheim Hines near the line of scrimmage, re-routing him when possible in order to disrupt the timing of those shorter throws.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have seen Luck sling it everywhere during their studies this week, but he's not slinging it a long way down the field quite as frequently as he used to.