Perry: Is Jameis Winston worth considering for the Patriots in 2021?

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Let's just ask the question: How desperate would the New England Patriots have to be to sign Jameis Winston?

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, now 27, is set to be an unrestricted free agent after playing out a one-year deal in New Orleans. Winston might be Saints coach Sean Payton's No. 1 option for life after Drew Brees, but he'll be able to hear pitches from other clubs when the new league year begins later this month.

Will the Patriots be among those pitching?

If the San Francisco 49ers don't want to trade Jimmy Garoppolo, they may strike out on that front. If the Raiders release Marcus Mariota, he could have a few options from which to choose. So let's dive a little deeper and envision how an "Odd Couple" partnership between Winston and Bill Belichick might look.

CAN HE PLAY?

Winston is the personification of the ultimate quarterback conundrum. He can play. But you're going to have to live with him throwing it to the other team occasionally. OK. More than occasionally. 

During his last year as a starter in 2019 with the Bucs, he compiled 33 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions, the most in a season since 1988. He racked up 88 picks (against 121 touchdowns) in his five seasons in Tampa. But it's not all bad with Winston. Really.

 He led the league in air yards per attempt in 2019, chucking it deep in coach Bruce Arians' offense while throwing to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Those prayers came with some risk. But when he hit, he was efficient enough to still rank 14th in EPA (expected points added) per play, 12th in success rate and 16th in completion percentage over expected. Despite the picks. 

Those, my friends, are signs Winston could be a top-20 quarterback. In a different scheme, with different coaching, perhaps there's a more-risk-averse-yet-still-explosive version of Winston the world has yet to see. 

WOULD THE PATRIOTS FIND IT FEASIBLE?

Part of the reason a union between Winston and Bill Belichick is so intriguing is because of the stylistic clash that would ensue. For two decades Belichick has touted the value of preventing turnovers (and creating them defensively) in order to maximize the team's chances of winning. He and Josh McDaniels would have their work cut out for them. But there is clearly potential there with Winston. 

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Longtime Belichick consigliere Mike Lombardi once had some very nice things to say about the young quarterback. In his book, "Gridiron Genius," Lombardi lays out the seven qualities he looks for in a quarterback. The first two? Wins in college and "a thick skin." His example for both? Winston.

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He referenced Winston's 26-1 record as a starter at Florida State after explaining, "You can't bluff your way to 23 wins (a reference to Bill Parcells' golden rule for drafting quarterbacks), not even in Pop Warner."

Winston's inclusion in the "thick skin" section is also pretty self-explanatory for anyone familiar with Winston's gun-slinging approach.

"Say this about him: Those [interceptions] don't bother him," Lomardi wrote. "He comes off the field acting as if they are just part of the game -- which they are. His mental toughness allows him to keep taking chances, to keep moving forward."

At the right price, the Patriots may see enough to be gained from a partnership with Winston that they'd be willing to sign him.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

One of the most enticing elements of a potential link between the Patriots and Winston, from a New England perspective, would be the cost. 

Volatile as Winston may be, if he just gets back to his 2017 levels -- 2.5% interception rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 92.2 quarterback rating -- that would be a bargain on a low-money deal. And the money should be low.

Last offseason, Winston couldn't even sniff the quarterback reclamation-project kind of contract that Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater have signed in recent years. Winston took the minimum in New Orleans to sit behind Brees (and, at times, Taysom Hill). If he gets any more than that, it'd likely be that reclamation type of contract. The going rate on those? About $7 million for one year.

BUILDING PLAN

If $7 million is all it costs for his starting quarterback, suddenly Belichick would have oodles of cap space with which to play in free agency this offseason.

The issue, of course, is that Winston himself is a free agent. Signing him on Day 1 of the new league year, for example, might be too little too late for top wide receivers (Allen Robinson, Chris Robinson, Kenny Golladay) or tight ends (Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith) looking to sign their deals early.

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The Patriots could scramble during the legal tampering period just ahead of the new league year to bring aboard Winston (or fellow free-agent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick). Then at least they'd have a quarterback on the roster to point to while trying to negotiate with weapons who will want to know the team's plan at the game's most important position.

But that raises a critical question: Are there players who want to play with Winston? 

For the Patriots, Godwin would be an obvious big-money match with Winston if he was amenable to a reunion, given their shared history. Big down-the-field targets -- like Robinson, Golladay and Corey Davis -- could help erase Winston's inaccuracies and reward him for his aggressiveness.

A short-area receiver also could help curb Winston's appetite for deep passes, meaning someone like receiver Curtis Samuel or tight end Gerald Everett would be logical adds for New England, too.

When it comes to the cap, odds are none of the names listed above would be too rich for the Patriots if they were saving as much as they would be with Winston on a salary that pays him less than $10 million to be their starter. Convincing any of those top-end free agents to get to Foxboro, though, could be a challenge.

LIKELIHOOD IT HAPPENS

Hard not to go back to the keys to good quarterback play Belichick laid out late last season: decision-making and anticipation. There's an argument to be made that no one was worse in those facets of the position in 2019 than Winston. 

Does that mean he's a hopeless quarterback? Belichick certainly may see something worth mining in him, just as Lombardi apparently once did. And we should never say never if the price is right.

But what Belichick values at the position and what Winston represents just ... don't seem to match up.

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