Patriots 53-man roster projection: Is there room for Jamie Collins?

Patriots 53-man roster projection: Is there room for Jamie Collins?

Though the Patriots didn't dive head-first into the free agency waters this offseason, they've made several potentially impactful moves recently.

Jared Veldheer could play significant time at tackle, a position where the Patriots have dealt with injuries in recent years. Dontrelle Inman provides even more depth in the fight for roster spots at wide receiver. New England was able to lure Benjamin Watson out of retirement for his second go-round in Foxboro. And speaking of a second stint in Foxboro, Jamie Collins is back.

But here's the question: will any or all of these additions crack the roster or will they be camp casualties, if they even last that long?

Phil Perry breaks down the position battles and has made several changes to his initial 53-man roster projection that he filed 11 days ago.

Click here for his latest Patriots roster projection.>>>>>

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PFF analysis finds Tom Brady still ranks among NFL's most accurate passers


PFF analysis finds Tom Brady still ranks among NFL's most accurate passers

Tom Brady may say he's eyeing 2,000 yards rushing after cracking the 1,000-yard barrier last season, but it'd be a good idea if he kept his focus on throwing footballs accurately to much faster human beings. 

According to Pro Football Focus, which looked at quarterback accuracy based on the separation of their receivers in 2018, the 41-year-old quarterback was among the league's most pinpoint passers.

On throws to "open" targets -- two steps or more of separation, per PFF -- Brady was the third-most accurate quarterback in the league, with 78 percent of his throws deemed accurate. That trailed only Ben Roethlisberger (78.2 percent) and Philip Rivers (78.7 percent). It tied him with Drew Brees. 

PFF also noted that 17.6 percent of Brady's throws to open targets received an "accuracy plus" designation, accurate throws away from coverage, which led all quarterbacks. 

The takeaway: On throws that should be completed, throws to open receivers, Brady is still better than most. 

At the next level of target separation -- PFF calls if "step/closing" -- Brady is still one of the best in the league. He was accurate on 67.4 percent of throws into windows where receivers had "up to" two steps of separation, which placed him fourth among all quarterbacks. 

And for the second straight year, Brady led all quarterbacks in "accuracy plus" percentage throws in the "step/closing" category. Last year, 33.3 percent of his step/closing attempts were were tagged "accuracy plus."

The takeaway: On throws where receivers are "NFL open," where there a window is opening or about to close, Brady is still better than most.

In PFF's "tight throw" category -- which is defined by a defender being within an arm's length of the target or in a passing window to discourage a throw -- Brady didn't rank inside the top-5. He was instead in the middle of the pack at No. 14, per PFF. 

But there are a number of other metrics by which Brady can still claim to be among the most accurate throwers of footballs on the planet. Regardless of separation, no quarterback had a higher percentage of "accuracy plus" throws. He was second in true accuracy percentage, and he was first in "catchable" throw percentage.

Brady was also the second-most accurate passer, per PFF, on throws landing between 10 and 19 yards from the line of scrimmage (59.3 percent). 

The separation accuracy numbers are what really stand out, though, given the types of players the Patriots have imported for 2019. Where Brady ranked lowest (though still middle-of-the-road) was on "tight" throws. 

While the Patriots lost the best contested-catch threat Brady has ever had in Rob Gronkowski, they added plenty of "50-50" weapons. First-round pick N'Keal Harry's calling card is his ability to make plays in tight spots due to his frame, physicality and strong hands. Undrafted rookie Jakobi Meyers is a big slot who had just as many contested catches last year as Harry did, according to PFF. 

The team added veteran 6-foot-3 wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Dontrelle Inman and Maurice Harris. They also got a few big-bodied pass-catchers at tight end in Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6-5, 262) and Ben Watson (6-3, 251).

Brady is still tremendously accurate when throwing to open receivers, even in his early-40s. And if he can get some help on the tighter-window throws that will always be most difficult, that should help keep him in the conversation as one of the game's elites.

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Patriots have options but Gostkowski hopes to continue to kick off

Patriots have options but Gostkowski hopes to continue to kick off

FOXBORO -- When the Patriots selected Jake Bailey in the fifth round last month, they got someone who could punt and kick. He'd done both throughout his career at Stanford. While the assumption was that Bill Belichick would ask Bailey to focus on punting a pro, Bailey said he'd jump at the chance to do any kicking off for his new team as well.

"I would love to be able to do that," he said. "It's been a part of my game ever since I've been at Stanford. It's something I would like to continue. A lot of NFL teams really value a punter that can also kick off because it kind of helps out the kicker if he's getting old or something or doesn't have a strong kickoff leg, so whatever happens, I'll be super happy with it."

Bailey was a kickoff specialist to start his career at Stanford, punting only situationally. But even as his punting duties increased, he remained the kickoff choice for coach David Shaw. Bailey had 60 touchbacks on 72 kickoffs last year (83 percent). In 2017, he had 58 of 83 kicks go for touchbacks (70 percent), playing primarily in kicker-friendly Pac-12 locales.

The Patriots have a kicker, of course, in Stephen Gostkowski. The 35-year-old just signed a two-year deal to remain with the club this offseason.

I asked him on Tuesday, in light of the Bailey selection, if he'd benefit from a break from handling kickoff duties. He said he'd love the opportunity to continue to kicking off, as he has since he replaced Adam Vinatieri as a fourth-round pick in 2006.

"I personally love kicking off," he said. "It gives me another chance to get on the field. The hardest thing about kicking field goals sometimes is you don't know when you're going to play. You don't know what situation you're going to be in. I remember in the Atlanta Super Bowl, it's two weeks of the biggest buildup of your life, and I didn't step on the field until there was two seconds left in the second quarter.

"Those are the things that you have to deal with in my position. The more I get on the field, the more comfortable I am. I love kicking off. Just like anyone else, after a while, you're like, 'Man, I don't want to practice this.' But I love kicking off and I want to try to do it as long as I physically can do it."

The Patriots ranked last in the league last year in average opposing starting field position following a kickoff, according to Football Outsiders, with offenses beginning their drives at the New England 27-yard line (27.11 average). That was a drastic departure from where they ranked in 2017, when they were the No. 2 team in the league in opposing starting field position following a kickoff (23.31). In 2016, they were No. 3 in the league.

Before the league changed touchback rules to give receiving teams the ball at the 25-yard line as opposed to the 20-yard line on touchbacks, in 2015, the Patriots were still near the top of the league in kickoff effectiveness. They ranked third that year in opposing starting field position following a kick (20.20).

How to explain the results in 2018? Before the season, there was another rule change to kickoffs that didn't allow teams to get running starts before kicks, making it harder to build speed and pin an opponent deep -- something at which the Patriots had become adept in seasons prior. There were also personnel changes made mid-season with veterans like Albert McClellan and Ramon Humber brought aboard and given roster spots to improve what was at times a porous coverage unit.

It's difficult, if not impossible, to gauge how Gostkowski's kicks themselves factored into his team's average starting field position number last year without knowing exactly when he was told to kick it short -- intentionally encouraging a return -- or when to go for a touchback. But here are some numbers to consider . . .

* According to Pro Football Focus, among the 31 kickers who played at least 12 games in 2018, Gostkowski ranked 19th in average kickoff distance (65.8 yards).

* Gostkowski's percentage of kicks returned (45.2) was sixth-highest.

* Late in the year, outdoors, Gostkowski's touchback percentage was 23 percent: Five of his six kicks in a frigid AFC title game in Kansas City were returned and the Chiefs had an average starting field position of the 28.7 yard line; six of his eight kicks in the Divisional Round against the Chargers were brought back, and they had an average start of their own 26.5; in regular-season contests at Gillette Stadium against the Bills and Jets to finish off the year, Gostkowski had nine of 12 kicks returned.

* At the Super Bowl, inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Gostkowski had three of four kicks go for touchbacks.

* Gostkowski's 23 percent touchback rate (six touchbacks on 26 kicks) in his final four outdoor games of the season is less than half the rate he boasted in his final four outdoor games of the season in 2017 (50 percent; 12 touchbacks on 24 kicks, all at Gillette Stadium).

I asked Gostkowski, as he prepares to go into his 14th season, if at this stage of his career he spends as much time thinking about the kickoff portion of his job as he does the field goal portion.

"I would say you always practice field goals a lot more than kickoffs," he said. "I would equate kicking off to like hitting on the driving range. We work on things like hitting it short, hitting it in the corner, hitting it high. But at the end of the day, I'm really just swinging as hard as I can. Field goals. are so much more attention to detail that goes into it. Plus, if a kicker were to get injured, nine times out of 10 it's on a kickoff.

"It's one of those things, you gotta kick off enough to where you're comfortable with your rhythm and your steps. But you could go out there and kick field goals all day. You kick too many kickoffs, it'll tire you out a little bit more so you have to watch out how much you actually do kickoff-wise. I know a guy like Thomas Morstead who used to do it, he was like, 'I could punt all day, but kickoffs you just can't do all day.' It's one of those things. It's all effort. Balls to the wall. Then field goal is more like a smooth stroke."

There are plenty of kickers who have focused on field goals more, and kicked off less, as they got along in their careers. For Vinatieri, who hasn't kicked off since 2008, that change seems to have extended his career, and as Gostkowski noted, may have taken him out of situations where he'd be more likely to get injured.

The question is whether the Patriots see any value in giving Gostkowski a break from his kickoff duties this year after trading up in the fifth round to select a punter who could, in theory, provide him one.

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