Here are two sentences that can't possibly both be true:
1. Eduardo Rodriguez has a chance to win 20 games.
2. The Red Sox are probably going to miss the playoffs.
Not to play the "if I had told you before the season" game, but if I had told you a defending champion built around its rotation's top four of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, and Nathan Eovaldi would see E-Rod of all people win 20, you'd be right to wonder if last year's record 108 wins would fall, too.
Unfortunately, the first four names on that list have proven to be such bitter disappointments, the Red Sox will likely spend October as spectators.
One man keeping that dream from dying completely is Rodriguez, who delivered another effective outing in Wednesday's 7-4 victory over the Rockies that was mostly notable for the path of destruction carved by Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. The two lineup mainstays combined for six hits, three homers, and four RBIs, and were everybody's story on Thursday morning.
They weren't the only story, though. Rodriguez improved to 16-5 with five innings of three-run ball. That doesn't sound impressive until you remember where the game was played. Coors Field remains a launching pad, and the Rockies mash there to the tune of a .306 average, 102 homers and .893 team OPS in 65 games.
Boston Red Sox
With Sale done for the season, Price sidelined for most of the month because of a wrist cyst, and Eovaldi limited to an opener/bullpen role, Rodriguez has emerged as the staff's most reliable arm. Still only 26 years old, he has a chance to prove that he can be leaned on when the going gets tough.
So far, he is delivering.
"He did an outstanding job," manager Alex Cora told reporters in Colorado. "Like I said yesterday, these are tough conditions for anybody and that's a tough lineup and for him to give us five, he had good stuff at the end, too, but obviously we had to take him out and hit for him and he left everything he had in that fifth inning. It was good enough and the way we're throwing the ball in the back end of the game is very impressive, so it's good and we went to our guys right away."
With 28 games remaining and few viable alternatives, Rodriguez could make six more starts. If he goes every five days, he'd be on turn for the season finale against Baltimore. He needs four more wins to become just the sixth Red Sox pitcher to reach 20 since 1990, joining Rick Porcello, Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez (twice), and Roger Clemens.
That's some pretty exclusive company, and while the odds aren't exactly in his favor, the run he'd need to close the season on wouldn't be unprecedented. Rodriguez must end with seven wins in nine starts (he has already won 3 straight). He did exactly that between June 14 and the end of July, going 7-0 in nine turns.
In the bigger picture, he is finally delivering on the promise the Red Sox saw in him when they acquired him from the Orioles in 2014 for left-hander Andrew Miller. Starting pitchers usually need more time to break through than hitters, and because Rodriguez doesn't even turn 27 until April, he's just entering his prime.
Can he reach 20 wins? That would be a heck of an accomplishment, whether or not the Red Sox are playing in October.
It's just hard to believe they could have one without the other.
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