Red Sox

J.D. Martinez to the Yankees would be nightmare scenario for Red Sox

J.D. Martinez to the Yankees would be nightmare scenario for Red Sox

It makes little sense, given their needs. But is a door cracking for the Yankees to take a run at J.D. Martinez?

If so, what's already projecting to be a painful Red Sox offseason could end up becoming catastrophic.

In the old days, the marriage would've made complete sense. The Yankees can never boast enough sluggers, and adding Martinez would serve the dual purpose of also weakening their rivals.

The only problem is, the Yankees have practiced fiscal responsibility under the stewardship of Hal Steinbrenner, who's nowhere near as reactionary as his legendary father. The Yankees haven't led the league in payroll since 2013, but cutting costs hasn't stopped them from topping 100 wins for two straight years. Their opening day payroll of $167 million in 2018 ranked seventh in MLB, and even as it rebounded to $206 million this year, still ranked only third.

After an American League Championship Series loss to the Astros that saw their lack of starting pitching badly exposed, the Yankees are expected to be in the market for multiple starters. With CC Sabathia retiring, Masahiro Tanaka undergoing elbow surgery, and Luis Severino limited to only three starts, the Yankees can't afford another season of openers, James Paxton, and Domingo German. They should be directing their considerable resources at starters. They'll undoubtedly make a run at Astros ace Gerrit Cole.

But then came Thursday's news that center fielder Aaron Hicks needs Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for eight to 10 months. With 36-year-old one-dimensional DH Edwin Encarnacion coming off a putrid ALCS (1 for 18, 11 Ks), New York could easily decline his $20 million option.

That creates two openings in New York's crowded outfield/DH mix, and suddenly Martinez doesn't look so far-fetched.
 
If the Yankees wanted to build a devastating lineup, they could find the money for Martinez while maintaining the flexibility to add a frontline starter. Sabathia's retirement clears $8 million off the books, and they could save another $50 million by declining Encarnacion's option and bidding adieu to free agents Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Dellin Betances.

The risk in signing Martinez is a considerable one, since $300 million man Giancarlo Stanton was limited to only 18 games all season and is looking more and more like a full-time DH. Similarly, caveat emptor to any club looking to outfit Martinez with a glove, given his back issues in 2019.

But if the Yankees are comfortable with the two sluggers splitting left field and DH, imagine how potent New York's lineup would look with Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Martinez, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, and Gio Urshela.

Martinez has proven himself to be a difference-maker over two seasons with the Red Sox, with a pair of All-Star berths and a near Triple Crown. Over the last three years, he has averaged 41 homers and 113 RBIs while hitting .313 with a 1.007 OPS. That's superstar production, and given the dearth of teams willing or able to extend major resources to a DH, he could end up being a bargain on a three- or four-year deal.

It's the kind of move the Yankees used to make with regularity before embarking on this era of relative austerity. Maybe Martinez will tempt them to strike again, which would be a disaster for Boston.

Where Martinez would rank among MLB's top free agents>>>>>

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Is there time for Red Sox to trade Mookie Betts before spring training?

Is there time for Red Sox to trade Mookie Betts before spring training?

February arrives this weekend, spring training begins in two weeks, and Mookie Betts remains on the Red Sox roster.

This leads to an obvious question: with rumors swirling about interest from the Padres and Dodgers, is there still time for the Red Sox to swing a trade?

According to chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, the answer is yes.

"Sometimes the action happens early, some years it happens late," Bloom said recently. "Obviously, closer to spring training there are practical hurdles. You want to feel like you have time for the impact of anything to settle. But I've been around deals that happened very late and there's certainly still time. But I don't say that to indicate anything one way or the other, just to answer your question."

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It turns out that history is with him, though blockbuster trades this late in the offseason certainly aren't common.

Examine 20 years' worth of transactions and you'll find a handful of impact deals that occurred between Jan. 27 and Opening Day. Most don't involve the kind of money — $27 million — the Red Sox are trying to move with Betts, but it's worth noting how tricky they are to consummate this close to the start of the season.

Since 2000, five deals generally fit Boston's current parameters: trading an All-Star caliber player this close to the season, when most clubs have settled their budgets and rosters. (For the sake of this exercise, we're not including the monster free agent deals Manny Machado and Bryce Harper signed last February/March with the Padres and Phillies, respectively).

Two of the five deals don't realistically compare to Betts, though. On this date in 2006, the Red Sox acquired center fielder Coco Crisp from the Indians for a package that included top prospect Andy Marte and catcher Kelly Shoppach. Crisp was good, but not great, and the Red Sox acquired him while he still had arbitration eligibility remaining.

Likewise, the everything-must-go Marlins shipped All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies last Feb. 7 for a pair of prospects, a fringe big leaguer, and international bonus money. Realmuto had two years of team control remaining when the Phillies acquired him.

That leaves three deals involving players the caliber of Betts — trades of former MVPs Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, as well as Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana.

Let's break down each to try gain some insight into what the Red Sox face.

Feb. 10, 2000: Mariners trade Ken Griffey Jr. to Reds

When owner John Henry told reporters in September that the team wanted to drop below the $208 million luxury tax threshold, he effectively put his next GM in a box, but it's nothing compared to the one Seattle's Pat Gillick found himself in during the winter of 1999-2000.

He entered that offseason knowing he needed to trade  the former MVP and all-around best player in baseball before his contract expired in a year, but Griffey's 10-5 rights meant he could dictate his destination, and he provided the M's with only four options: the Reds, Mets, Astros, and Braves.

Gillick negotiated all winter before finally striking the February deal that sent Griffey to his hometown Reds for a package that included future Gold Glover Mike Cameron and right-hander Brett Tomko.

Cameron ended up making as many All-Star games (1) as Griffey over the next four years, winning two Gold Gloves to Junior's zero. He also played an integral role in the 116-win behemoth of 2001, while Griffey never made the postseason over his nine years in Cincinnati.

Here's where the Betts comparison falters, though. Griffey arrived in Cincinnati at age 30, while Betts only just turned 27. Betts should be that much further from his decline, buying his next team some more leeway if it signs him to a long-term deal.

Feb. 16, 2004: Rangers trade Alex Rodriguez to Yankees

Red Sox fans need no reminder of how this deal went down.

Boston spent half of that offseason trying to acquire the defending MVP, striking a complicated deal involving Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Magglio Ordonez, and others. It would've pulled it off, too, except the MLBPA balked at Rodriguez reducing his salary.

So in swooped the Yankees at the 11th hour by dangling slugging infielder Alfonso Soriano, completing the trade that put Rodriguez in pinstripes and made him villain No. 1 in Boston for the next decade.

While Rodriguez imported more than his share of controversy to the Yankees clubhouse before retiring in disgrace, he also delivered, winning a pair of MVP awards and the only World Series title of his career in 2009.

If there's a tie to Betts, it's the idea that the Red Sox could move down the road with one club — let's say the Padres — before a division rival with massive resources springs into action, in this case the Dodgers.

Feb. 2, 2008: Twins trade Johan Santana to Mets

Sometimes, there are no right answers.

Take the 2008 trade that sent the two-time Cy Young Award winner to New York before he played out the final year and $13.25 million on his contract.

Minnesota's rookie GM, Bill Smith, knew he couldn't afford Santana long-term (sound familiar?), so he jettisoned him for a pile of prospects, virtually all of whom missed. The best player in the deal was outfielder Carlos Gomez, not that the Twins benefited; he didn't blossom into an All-Star and Gold Glover until 2013 with the Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Mets didn't receive an adequate return on their six-year, $137.5 million investment, either. Santana delivered three good-to-great seasons before injuries effectively ended his career in 2010.

The real what-if in this scenario is how different the deal would look if the Twins had traded Santana to a Red Sox team that boasted Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, and Jed Lowrie in a loaded farm system.

It's a cautionary tale for Bloom as he evaluates competing prospect packages from the Padres and Dodgers, because making the right deal for the wrong players accomplishes nothing.

MLB Rumors: Red Sox' Mookie Betts trade talks with Padres at this sticking point

MLB Rumors: Red Sox' Mookie Betts trade talks with Padres at this sticking point

The Boston Red Sox are at a franchise-altering fork in the road.

The Red Sox reportedly are in negotiations with the San Diego Padres regarding a trade for star outfielder Mookie Betts, who becomes a free agent in 2021.

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, though, those negotiations have hit a snag.

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The Padres are willing to send outfielder Wil Myers, "two young major leaguers and at least one prospect" to the Red Sox in exchange for Betts, Acee reported Monday.

Betts is set to earn $27 million on the final year of his contract, however, so in return for taking on his contract, San Diego wants Boston to take on more of Myers' hefty deal, per Acee:

Myers is owed $61 million over the next three seasons, and the Red Sox are offering to assume about half that. Sources said the Padres would prefer to eat only about a quarter of the money owed Myers in order to take on Betts’ salary.

Acee also listed several major league-level players the Padres are willing to send to Boston, per his sources: outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor as well as starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi.

A haul of Myers, Margot or Naylor, Quantrill or Lucchessi and a prospect would be a solid return for Betts. If the Red Sox are serious about getting under the $208 luxury tax threshold, though, they may need to keep negotiating.

As The Boston Globe's Alex Speier points out, Chaim Bloom and Co. would be able to get under the luxury tax if they assume about $30 million (half) of Myers' salary but would need to make additional moves if they take on any more of his remaining deal.

Boston reportedly is also discussing a Betts deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, so it has some leverage. But whether Betts is on the roster this spring may come down to the money.