With the playoffs approaching, Evan Drellich will look at various decisions the Red Sox are going to have to make on their postseason roster. Today: The bullpen.
PREVIOUSLY IN THE SERIES
BOSTON — Pick two: Joe Kelly, Bobby Poyner, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree. Use in middle innings if needed, and let’s talk in 10 days.
The bullpen that will carry the Red Sox in the playoffs, at least through the first round, is probably the most difficult decision the braintrust has. (Well, that, and how to actually use them.)
The decisions haven’t snuck up on anyone. Now, time is almost up.
Alex Cora said the Sox will carry 11 pitchers, seven of them to be used primarily in relief, for the Division Series, which can last up to five games. Likely, they’d expand to 12 pitchers for the Championship Series or World Series, which can go up to seven games. But Step 1 is the Division Series.
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Whether the Sox face the A’s or the Yankees could have some impact, Cora said on WEEI’s "Ordway, Merloni and Fauria" on Friday.
“Maybe a few decisions, or one decision probably,” Cora said.
He was asked if that meant potentially carrying a lefty.
“Maybe,” Cora said. “I’m a big believer if you can get lefties and righties out, you’re better off carrying that guy. I really don’t believe that you carry a lefty to carry a lefty.”
Cora also said on WEEI whether Nathan Eovaldi or Eduardo Rodriguez goes to the bullpen depends on the match-up in the first round, and from there, that could have some effect on the final pen choice too. (E-Rod probably makes sense in the ‘pen either way).
The pitchers we can safely say at this point will be in that group of seven, in no particular order:
Craig Kimbrel (R)
Ryan Brasier (R)
Matt Barnes (R)
Steven Wright (R)
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) / Nathan Eovaldi (R)
That leaves two spots to be filled from a group of four, most likely:
Joe Kelly (R)
Brandon Workman (R)
Heath Hembree (R)
Bobby Poyner (L)
Why isn’t Kelly considered more certain? Well, he’s a favorite in this group. But he also has a 6.39 ERA from the start of June on, with opponents carrying an .828 OPS against him in 38 innings. He has a 10.29 ERA in September.
What Kelly has been good at is preventing home runs. He doesn’t get swings and misses on his fastball as often as hoped, but he also doesn’t allow the long ball.
Poyner’s thrown 8 2/3 innings in September. Workman’s thrown 7 1/3 innings this month, with Kelly at seven innings. Hembree’s at 4 2/3 innings. Those numbers suggest, to some degree, where Cora may be leaning, and the arms he wanted to see.
Poyner’s the lefty, but he probably hasn’t shown enough against righties to merit inclusion unless the Sox feel the A’s lineup, with the likes of Matt Olson, deserves a dedicated lefty reliever. Lefties have a .440 OPS against Poyner, with righties at a .769 OPS.
Workman has made a growing case with a 2.68 ERA, and he can handle lefties as well as righties, with a sub.-200 average for the former.
Hembree has 75 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. A 5.50 ERA in the second half compared to a 3.79 mark in the first half might be his undoing, but he also has reverse splits.
Tyler Thornburg is now entirely out of the picture because of health. Drew Pomeranz has been a non-factor. Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez have been important pieces in the regular season as swingmen, but it’s hard to see a role for them in the DS with two starters, Wright and one of either Eovaldi or Rodriguez expected in the ‘pen.
Oh, and if this observer had to pick two right now?
Kelly and Hembree. Hembree has punch-out upside. Kelly might not put guys away as well as you’d want but he was excellent early in the year, and if he gets rolling with his changeup, he’s a different pitcher.