Paul Aspan

Vegas sets Mitchell Trubisky’s pass TD total at 26.5

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USA TODAY

Vegas sets Mitchell Trubisky’s pass TD total at 26.5

If Mitchell Trubisky has the kind of break out year in his second season under Matt Nagy that Bears fans are hoping for, he should have no problem cashing an OVER 26.5 passing TDs ticket for bettors who want to back him.

Per Bet Chicago, Caesars is rolling out division props and they set Trubisky’s touchdown pass total for 2019 at 26.5 and his pass yard total at 3,744.5.

While both those marks would be career highs for Trubisky, this number will surely be seen as a slight by the hometown fans and continue to add to the polarizing nature of the quarterback formerly known as the Pretty Boy Assassin.

In Chicago, and if you’re team Mitch, this number is ridiculously low and you’re probably already pounding the over.

Outside of Chicago, and with some analytical support, there’s a lot of doubt about Trubisky’s future as a viable option as an NFL starter, so I’d guess the Pro Football Focus crowd is probably gonna take the under.

We rolled out some props of our own on the Under Center podcast last week including:

Will Mitch Trubisky pass for 10 or more touchdowns than Craig Kimbrel has saves? (Including playoffs for both)

26.5 regular season passing touchdowns probably gives Kimbrel the edge, but it’s right in range. 

And that Trubisky – Kimbrel prop prompted this bold response from our own Bears insider JJ Stankevitz:

I don’t think I’m in the 40 club with my guy JJ, but the OVER certainly feels like the move here. At least it better be if the Bears are gonna make any sort of NFC North title defense. 

 

Bears summer prop bets: Eloy home runs vs. Bears sacks and others

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USA Today

Bears summer prop bets: Eloy home runs vs. Bears sacks and others

With over a month until football comes back for Bears training camp, JJ Stankevitz, Cam Ellis & Paul Aspan are killing that time on the latest Under Center podcast by taking a way too early look at some fun Bears prop bets. Here are some of their favorites that they discussed and a couple bonus props.

Eloy HR vs. Akiem Hicks + Khalil Mack + Roquan Smith sacks

Well, That. Was. Awesome.

As far as Crosstown moments go, Eloy’s 9th inning go-ahead home run immediately jumps into AJ vs Barrett territory. Dude broke his bat and still managed to (momentarily) crush one entire fan base while convincing another the rebuild has turned a corner. Poor Jose Quintana. He never had a chance.

With his absurd hot streak of six home runs in his last nine games, Eloy now has 12 homers in 47 games which skews his pace to about one every four games. With 91 games remaining that would put his season total around 34, but it’s safe to say he’s at least in the 25-30 HR neighborhood. Now if they keep throwing Eloy inside fastballs, Akiem Hicks & Khalil Mack could each pass Michael Strahan’s single season sack record of 22.5 and it won’t matter.

As for Hicks, Mack and Roquan Smith, might as well dub them the HMS trio with a trip to London on tap. Those three combined for 25 sacks in 2018 and with five sacks thru the first four games of 2018, it looked like Mack might have a real chance to threaten Strahan’s mark on his own. But then injuries, triple teams and the constant adjustment / readjustment nature of the NFL by opposing offenses held Mack to 7.5 sacks in the final 10 games he played, even if we can all agree he deserved at least two more for this.

Hicks tallied 7.5 sacks and shows no signs of slowing down, so a double digit sack season for him seems to be well within reach. And Smith’s sneaky five sack total in his rookie season will likely only increase with Chuck Pagano’s penchant to blitz and ‘wreak havoc.’

This is a total coin flip, so while you contemplate, let’s go back to the latest, greatest moment in this Crosstown rivalry:

Ozzie is the freakin’ best.

Eloy was probably thinking of that moment on this entire drive up to Wrigley Field Tuesday.

And salty Cubs twitter is (are?) my favorite Cubs fans.

Relax, I’m putting you guys in the World Series later, so take it easy.

Do the Bears cut their kicker before or after their Week 6 Bye?

At least give me some credit for not leading with the obvious kicker prop.

This bet starts with the Week 1 kickoff, because based on what we’ve seen from this ‘oh this is fun --- wait they’re still in real trouble’ kicker competition, who knows if the Bears are still playing kicker roulette leading up to the opener. At first I had this at Week 3, but that puts us all in a world of despair that we don’t want to imagine.

The original prop I...um...proposed...earlier this offseason on the podcast was Over/Under: 2.5 Bears kickers during the regular season. Two kickers seem all too likely while anything over that spells disaster, so we’ll make this more of a timing thing. Which doesn’t really make it any better.

An early season change that involves anything other than a trade for Robbie Gould will send the fan base into a panic. A late season change that involves anything other than a trade for Robbie Gould? Much worse.

Oh, you want to bet that they’ll stick with one kicker all season? It won’t be hard to find someone to take that bet. Just make sure you get like 5-1 odds to make it worthwhile.

Will Trubisky throw 10 more touchdowns than Craig Kimbrel has saves? (including playoffs for both)

Here’s how this one breaks down by the numbers

Note: “by the numbers” in no way means these have been calculated by any sort of algorithm, python or R - you’ll need to find someone much smarter than me for that kind of data analysis. I’m pro-analytics but I would hope I’d be in a front office if I had that kind of brain power.

Trubisky had 24 passing touchdowns in 14 games last season and we have to account for some growth in his second year in Nagy’s system so let’s give him 30 TD in 2019. Over the last four seasons, Kimbrel has averaged right around 36 saves per season, so let’s cut that in half to 18. And also use it as an excuse to show this again.

The wrinkle in this one is the playoffs. If the Cubs are going to make a deep playoff run, they’re gonna need Kimbrel to shut the door, conservatively, every other game. 11 wins for a World Series, so let’s (once again conservatively, we know how Joe Maddon likes to use his closer) say at least 6 saves.

I know how much Bears fans don’t want to hear the Jared Goff - Trubisky comparisons, but for this example, just hear me out -  it makes sense!

Goff got the Rams to the Super Bowl (or the Rams got Goff to the Super Bowl??), with the former first overall pick throwing one total touchdown pass in the playoffs. Based off that blueprint - and mix in a Freezer Left or a Chicago Special -  it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the Bears could do the same without needing Trubisky to throw more than one touchdown pass in each playoff game. So we’re right in the range of 34 TD to 24 saves.

Stop yelling at me about not automatically assuming Trubisky is gonna be better than Goff. This is a good thing! We’re talking about the possibility of a Cubs World Series & a Bears Super Bowl.

Will the Bears have twice as many sacks vs Rodgers, Stafford & Cousins as those three QBs have passing TD vs the Bears?

I was going to make this a straight up prop of sacks vs touchdowns until I went back and looked at the numbers from their six games last season again.

Bears sacks vs Rodgers, Cousins & Stafford:                                    21!!!

Rodgers, Cousins & Stafford total passing TD vs Bears                    8

We have to account for some regression here, as the Bears sacked Stafford six times in a single game and Rodgers five times in a single game. I also can’t bank on the Bears D to keep this trio completely out of the end zone in two of the six games as they did in 2018.

Boil it down and the Bears averaged 3.5 sacks per game against their NFC North foes and that’s a tall order to run back in 2019. But even if the Bears replicate that, I’m gonna take the three princes of the north to throw 2 TD per game, which leaves the final count at 21 Bears sacks vs 12 passing TD.

Will the Blackhawks & Bulls combine for more total wins than Trubisky’s lowest passer rating this coming season?

For those of us who need want a little action on the back burner thru football season, March Madness, the start of next baseball season, the Masters, and want to (hopefully) sweat it out all the way until the end of the next NBA & NHL regular seasons.

The Hawks (36 wins) and Bulls (22 wins) combined for 58 total wins last season. Mitch turned in a total clunker against the Rams (33.3 passer rating), so if that happens, the Hawks & Bulls are probably - probably -  a safe bet.

But if you throw out that Rams game, Mitch’s 2nd lowest passer rating of 2018 was the week before, against the Vikings, when he posted a 61.9 rating (hey, they won!). Even allowing for the most optimistic of Trubisky growth spurts in his 2nd season under Matt Nagy, if ya threaten everyone at Halas Hall with a couple of Malort shots, even they would admit Mitch is gonna have at least one bad game next season.

If that (foul tasting) *hiccup* is in the 60-65 passer rating range (or if you’re optimistic about the Blackhawks & Bulls - let’s say  65-75 range) this could be an all the way down to the Bulls and Hawks final games next April, wager.

Ah April...just like June...when it’s still cloudy. Rainy. And we’re stuck inside coming up with ridiculous prop bets because it feels like summer will never show up, ever again.

Bears regular season wins vs Cubs playoff wins

Hey, if the Bears are going 12-4 again, this one is easy. This is also easy if you’re a White Sox fan who will obviously take the Bears. But whatcha thinking Cubs fans? 11 wins for a World Series...I gotta proposition for ya! (RIP Prop Joe, still too soon.)

Projected lineups for Eddie Jackson’s charity softball game

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USA Today

Projected lineups for Eddie Jackson’s charity softball game

Eddie Jackson is hosting a charity softball game this Saturday, June 15th at Schamburg Boomers stadium at 5:05pm. It’ll be offense vs defense so let’s take an early look at what these lineups might look like for both teams.

Defense

1. Eddie Jackson

Has home run hitting ability in the leadoff spot and a flair for the dramatic. This rising star puts the pressure on the opposing pitcher from the very first pitch. Plus it’s his game, so of course he’s batting first.

2. Kyle Fuller

Tied for the NFL interception lead in 2018, Fuller’s combination of speed, instincts and film study  at the top of the lineup helps set the table for the big bats.

3. Akiem Hicks

As Ed O’Bradovich said at the 100 year celebration this past weekend, Khalil Mack “is a man-eater, but (Akiem Hicks) is the man who makes it happen.” It’s long been said you put your most important hitter in the 3-hole.

4. Khalil Mack

The quintessential cleanup hitter. Who else would you want in this spot?

5. Danny Trevathan

Provides world champion protection behind Mack in the likely event that the opponent tries to pitch around #52.

6. Roquan Smith

Just when an opponent think they’ve gotten thru the heart of the lineup, the 2018 rookie who came up just shy of Brian Urlacher’s franchise tackling mark is there to “break a man,” as he said right after his Bears intro press conference.

7. Ha-Ha Clinton Dix

Sliding this new addition into the 7-hole takes some of the pressure off of him to make an immediate impact, while also trapping pitchers into thinking they might get a break against a guy who has shown big play ability in the past.

8. Bilal Nichols

One of the most underrated players in the entire league is perfectly fine lurking at the bottom of the order. A second cleanup hitter, he’s happy consistently performing and making his teammates better. Everyone in this lineup knows how valuable he is.

9. Leonard Floyd

Still in a bit of a prove it spot, but if he consistently plays the way he’s shown shown flashes of, he could not only be dangerous in this spot, but he could climb up the lineup pretty quickly.

10. Prince Amukamara

Veteran who knows he’s there to do a job and turn the lineup over. His speed and ball skills make him a threat.

11. Buster Skrine

Another newcomer, let’s see what he’s got at the bottom of the order.

Offense

1. Taylor Gabriel   *Anthony Miller

We can all agree there’s no reason for Miller, a guy who dislocated his shoulder multiple times to be swinging a bat amiright?? Miller has the Willie Mayes Hayes swag you want from the leadoff man when healthy tho.

As for ‘Turbo’ Taylor Gabriel, of course you’re putting a guy who’s been clocked at 23 mph at the top of the lineup.

2. Tarik Cohen

Perfect spot for the swiss army knife of the offense. Could lay down a bunt and beat it out, move the runner, or even hit one to the gap and clear the bases.

3. Mitch Trubisky

The obvious spot for the leader of the offense and Akiem Hicks’ pick (outside himself) to win the home run derby part of this event. Let’s just hope he breaks out the punky QB headband and sunglasses look again this weekend.

4. Kyle Long

The most veteran member of the offensive line is there to protect the QB. Whether or not he’s even in the lineup, if anyone goes high and tight on # 10, better believe they’ll answer to #75.

5. Cody Whitehair

Some more muscle in the middle of the order. Has made it clear he’s good with moving around the lineup if the coaches think it’s best for the team.

6. Allen Robinson

Based on what we saw in the playoff game, he could be on his way to putting up big numbers anywhere in the batting order. Definitely a guy you want up late with the game on the line.

7. Charles Leno

Flies under the radar at one of the most important positions in football. If a pitcher thinks he’s in the clear after getting past Robinson, Leno will be there to throw a big block into that thinking.

8. Trey Burton / Adam Shaheen

When healthy, they provide some pop towards the bottom of the lineup. Let’s have Anthony Miller ready as the designated runner if these guys can get on base.

9. Bobby Massie

The ultimate team guy as he showed by signing a team friendly deal to stay in Chicago much earlier in the offseason than he had to.

10. James Daniels

As the new man in the middle on the offensive line, the burden falls on him to turn the lineup over and set the table for the speedy top of the order.

11. Mike Davis

Good spot to start for this new addition. Could easily see him towards the top of the lineup if he produces the way Matt Nagy & company thinks he can.

The defense has been ahead of the offense for pretty much the entire Pace/Nagy regime. But if Matt Nagy is involved, there’s sure to be no shortage of hidden ball tricks, squeezes and other trick plays with awesome names, so I might have to give a slight edge to the offense in this game.