Tony Andracki

2019 MLB preview and predictions: How Cubs stack up against Cardinals

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AP

2019 MLB preview and predictions: How Cubs stack up against Cardinals

The National League looks as strong as ever, with as many as 12 of the 15 teams planning to contend in 2019.

The Cubs had a quiet winter, transactionally speaking, but almost every other team in the NL bolster their roster this offseason. 

But expectations haven't changed at the corner of Clark and Addison. After a disappointing finish to 2018, Kris Bryant and Co. once again have their sights set on another World Series.

With that, let's take a look at all of the teams that could stand in the way of the Cubs getting back to the Fall Classic:

St. Louis Cardinals

2018 record: 88-74, 3rd in NL Central

Offseason additions: Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Miller, Matt Wieters, Chris Beck, Drew Robinson

Offseason departures: Luke Weaver, Tyson Ross, Bud Norris, Matt Adams, Carson Kelly, Patrick Wisdom

X-factor: Marcell Ozuna

The Cardinals traded for Ozuna last winter, expecting to get the hitter that just put up 37 homers, 124 RBI, a .924 OPS and hit .312 while coming off back-to-back All-Star appearances.

Instead, they got a solid hitter who was only slightly above average (106 OPS+) and saw a major dip in power (23 homers, 88 RBI). 

Which player is the real Marcell Ozuna?

He's still only 28 and is a free agent after this season. The Cardinals are counting on him to be one of their big bats in the middle of the lineup, likely hitting cleanup and lending protection to Goldschmidt.

We know Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter are going to hit if they're healthy and we know guys like Paul DeJong, Yadi Molina, Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader will be thorns in the Cubs' side at various points in 2019. But we don't know what type of player Ozuna will be.

You could say the same thing about Dexter Fowler, who has hit just .230 with a .739 OPS in a Cardinals uniform after signing an $82.5 million deal with the organization before the 2017 season. He still has three years left on his contract and if he can't regain his form, will the Cardinals be forced to stick a guy making more than $16 million a year on the bench in favor of better offensive options Jose Martinez or Tyler O'Neill?

Projected lineup

1. Matt Carpenter - 3B
2. Paul DeJong - SS
3. Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
4. Marcell Ozuna - LF
5. Dexter Fowler - RF
6. Yadier Molina - C
7. Kolten Wong - 2B
8. Harrison Bader - CF

Projected rotation

1. Miles Mikolas
2. Jack Flaherty
3. Adam Wainwright
4. Michael Wacha
5. Dakota Hudson

Outlook

The last time the Cardinals were in the playoffs, they watched as Javy Baez sent Wrigley Field into a frenzy with a blast to the right-centerfield bleachers. That 3-run shot came off John Lackey and both he and Jason Heyward had yet to don a Cubs uniform. Only one pitcher that threw for the Cubs in that game is still on the team (Pedro Strop).

Oh yeah, and the Cubs were still a year away from winning their first championship in more than a century.

In other words: It was a long time ago. It feels like a lifetime given how often the Cardinals were in the postseason prior to 2016.

So yeah, this organization and their fanbase are hungry as hell to get back to October. They proved that this winter.

The Cardinals didn't make a ton of moves over the offseason, but the decisions they made are very impactful — trading for Goldschmidt and signing Miller and Wieters.

Then they went out and reportedly extended Goldschmidt through the 2024 season. He is one of the best players in the NL and brings a legitimate stud to the middle of the lineup. Now the Cubs are forced to face him 19 times a season for at least the next half-decade and he carries a .353/.471/.699 slash line (1.170 OPS) against Chicago pitching in 43 career games. (The somewhat good news is that Goldschmidt also tears up Brewers pitching to the tune of a .366/.478/.652 slash line in 46 career games.)

Miller had a rough 2018 season, sporting a 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while pitching only 34 innings due to injuries. But he's still only 33 and was arguably the best reliever in the game from 2014-17 when he posted a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 14.5 K/9 in 260 appearances. If he's even close to that pitcher again, that's a huge stabilizing force at the back end of the Cardinals bullpen. However, he's had a really rough go of it in spring training thus far:

Wieters has never turned into the star many were expecting him to become, but he'll be good depth for St. Louis behind Molina.

This offense should be just fine, especially once Jedd Gyorko returns from injury and if they can somehow find a way to get Martinez and O'Neill in the lineup often.

The defense is also going to be great, with speedster Bader chasing everything down in the outfield and Molina/Wong/DeJong up the middle.

The pitching staff is where most of the questions lie. 

Carlos Martinez has been their ace in the past, but he experienced shoulder issues this spring and it's unknown how much time he'll miss or if he'll be a starter or reliever when he returns. He only pitched 118.2 innings last year due to the same injury.

Veteran relievers Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson are also both dealing with arm injuries and not expected to be in the Opening Day bullpen.

Miles Mikolas was an incredible find for the Cardinals last year and after a fantastic season (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), they made sure to lock him up for another four years. 23-year-old Jack Flaherty was a Top-50 prospect entering 2018 and exploded onto the MLB scene with a very good season that included a ridiculous 10.8 K/9 rate. He looks like a potential Cy Young contender this year and gives the Cardinals a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation even without Martinez.

After that, however, it's up in the air. Adam Wainwright is 37, Michael Wacha has been injured/inconsistent and rookie Dakota Hudson (just named the team's fifth starter Thursday) has only 27.1 MLB innings under his belt.

Meanwhile, in the bullpen, 22-year-old Jordan Hicks is looking like the closer with his 100+ mph fastball, but he also has some control issues (5.2 BB/9 in his rookie season) and blew more games (7) than he saved (6) last year. After him and Miller, there's a hodge podge of unproven guys like John Brebbia, Dominic Leone, Chasen Shreve and others. Former top prospect Alex Reyes is looming as a potential X-factor in the bullpen, but he has pitched only 27 innings since he had Tommy John surgery after the 2016 season.

Expect this to be a three-team race in the NL Central all year and it would not be at all surprising to see the Cardinals on top come October. 

But for now, I'll put them just behind the Cubs only because I have question marks about their outfielders (Ozuna and Fowler) and some of their pitching. I also think the Cubs have more depth than any team in the division and are better built for the marathon that is a 162-game season.

Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, wild-card team

All 2019 previews & predictions

San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals

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Cardinals locking up Paul Goldschmidt, which is very bad news for Cubs

Cardinals locking up Paul Goldschmidt, which is very bad news for Cubs

It's extension season all around baseball at the moment and now the St. Louis Cardinals are getting in on the fun.

Which is decidedly not fun for the Cubs. 

The Cardinals are close to an extension with stud Paul Goldschmidt on a deal that will go five years and be worth around $130 million, St. Louis Post-Dispatch beat writer Derrick Goold reported:

The Cardinals traded for Goldschmidt over the winter, giving up top catching prospect Carson Kelly as well as young pitcher Luke Weaver to acquire the star first baseman and perennial MVP candidate in his final season before free agency. Obviously Goldschmidt is not ticketed for the open market anymore, making the trade look all that much better for St. Louis.

The 31-year-old has earned a spot on the NL All-Star team six years in a row and has finished in the Top 6 in MVP voting four times in that span with the Diamondbacks. He owns a career .297/.398/.532 slash line (.930 OPS) and has averaged 30 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs scored since 2012.

Since the start of the 2013 season, only Buster Posey (35.1) has accrued more WAR than Goldschmidt (32.8) in the NL. For comparison, Anthony Rizzo has totaled 24.1 WAR in the same span.

As if that wasn't bad enough, Goldschmidt has been an absolute Cub killer over the years. 

In 43 career games against Cubs pitching, he has hit .353/.471/.699 (that's a 1.170 OPS) with 14 homers and 39 RBI. The only team he has a better OPS against in his career is the Los Angeles Angels...and he's faced them just 11 times.

Goldschmidt also loves hitting at Wrigley, with a .337/.433/.578 slash line (1.011 OPS) in 22 games at The Friendly Confines. 

This extension would take him through his age-36 season, keeping him playing under the arch through the 2024 season.

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The Brewers bullpen is suddenly in a serious state of flux

brewers_bullpen_state_of_flux_slide.jpg
AP

The Brewers bullpen is suddenly in a serious state of flux

When the Brewers were linked to Craig Kimbrel earlier this week, the initial reaction was a potential move that would be an embarrassment of riches — adding an elite arm to an already elite unit.

That might not be the case any more, however. Adding Kimbrel might be something more of a necessity for the Brewers.

Brewers closer Corey Knebel was shut down recently due to what was called a tired arm, The Athletic's Robert Murray wrote. But it just came out Thursday afternoon that he is getting his elbow checked out by the team physician and "there is reason for concern," Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell said.

That would be a huge blow to a Brewers bullpen that entered the season as maybe the best unit in the National League.

Milwaukee is already operating without Jeremy Jeffress for the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder issue, eliminating one of their top late-inning arms.

Now Knebel's ominous status lingers like a dark cloud over the Brewers, leaving Josh Hader as the lone high-leverage arm set for Opening Day.

Knebel, 27, endured an up-and-down 2018 season (he missed most of April with a hamstring injury and was actually sent down to the minors for a stretch at the end of August), but still wound up leading the Brewers with 16 saves (in 19 chances) while posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. 

He was lights-out in the postseason, allowing only a run on 2 hits in 10 innings while striking out 14 Rockies and Dodgers. In 2017, Knebel led the NL in appearances (76) with a 1.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 39 saves and 14.9 K/9. 

Jeffress led the Brewers bullpen last year with a 1.29 ERA in 73 appearances (76.2 innings) with 15 saves, 89 strikeouts and 18 holds.

The Brewers also lost another potential bullpen arm in Bobby Wahl when he tore his ACL a few weeks ago. They acquired him from the Mets in January in exchange for Keon Broxton.

Kimbrel would obviously be a nice addition for the Brewers if they were able to pull something off. He ranks as arguably the top closer in baseball and is still unsigned with Opening Day a week away. 

The Brewers caught the Cubs from behind in the division last September and came one win away from only their second-ever World Series appearance. Their bullpen was a huge part of the team's success and they already let a bunch of lower-profile names walks this winter via free agency — Xavier Cedeno (who signed with the Cubs, but is currently battling a wrist injury), Joakim Soria, Dan Jennings, Jordan Lyles.

Milwaukee also moved young arms Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns to the starting rotation, further depleting the bullpen.

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