Hoge: If changes are on the way, Bears must think bigger

Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell became the fourth NFL GM to lose his job in the middle of the 2020 season, getting fired shortly after Jacksonville’s loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday.

But if you’re expecting Bears general manager Ryan Pace to be the fifth, don’t count on it. Changes at Halas Hall can't be ruled out, but mid-season firings are just not the Bears’ way.

Of course, I’m certainly willing to listen to an argument suggesting the Bears need to start operating more like other NFL organizations, as three playoff victories in 25 years suggest the franchise is stuck in the previous century.

This is not going to be a column about whether or not Pace or head coach Matt Nagy should be fired. Those arguments – most notably the failures at quarterback and the successes of rebuilding a defense – have been and will continue to be made.

The argument in this column is this: If changes are made, the Bears can’t just continue to operate the way they have – with the same people making the firings and hirings – and hope for different results. Remember, when the franchise ultimately chose Pace over Chris Ballard – who is now having success as the Colts’ GM – my podcast partner Adam Jahns reported that Ballard wanted to make changes to the organizational structure and that “being very forthright with those ideas very well could have turned people off.”

Ballard had spent 12 years in the organization so he had deep, intimate knowledge of Bears’ shortcomings. To be fair, in hiring Pace, chairman George McCaskey and president Ted Phillips gave their new general manager considerable control over football operations and allowed Pace to bring the Bears into the 21^st century with technology, nutrition, strength training and the massive renovation/expansion of Halas Hall. Seeing those investments through could be one reason why Pace earns a seventh season in charge of the football team.

But NFL business might suggest otherwise. 2021 is the last year on Pace’s contract, and coaches/general managers rarely go into the final year of a contract without either an extension or a pink slip. But regardless of the contract situation, this is also a crucial offseason that will likely once again include considerable investment in the quarterback position, which has been Pace’s most obvious weakness in Chicago. By keeping Pace and Nagy in place, McCaskey and Phillips would be allowing them to make an enormous evaluation/decision that will alter the direction of the franchise for many years, just like the selection of Mitchell Trubisky (bad) and acquisition of Khalil Mack (good) did. It seems hard to believe that even the Bears would allow Pace to make those decisions without an extension.

The comparisons to Caldwell – again, fired by the Jaguars Sunday -- are interesting because he held the job for eight seasons, hired two different coaches (Gus Bradley and Doug Marrone), and built up a very good defense that made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, but ultimately was done in by the selection of Blake Bortles with the No. 3 overall pick in 2014. With the quarterback failures, it eventually all came crumbling down.

It might not seem like it’s Jacksonville Jaguars bad in Chicago, but it might actually be better in Northeast Florida because the Jaguars are positioned well with two first round draft picks in 2021 – one of which will likely be in the top two. They also have two second round picks. Acknowledging that major decisions/investments are on the horizon, owner Shad Khan went ahead and let Caldwell go Sunday, one day after the Detroit Lions fired their general manager, Bob Quinn.

The GM race is on.

A few weeks ago, major changes at Halas Hall seemed extremely unlikely. But 5-1 has suddenly turned into 5-6 and embarrassing losses in Green Bay don’t help job security. The shot NBC captured of Pace shaking his head during Sunday’s 41-25 loss was eerily similar to the shot NBC captured of Trestman during the 2014 blowout in Green Bay, when the head coach stood seemingly all by himself on the sideline as everyone else kept their distance.

That said, the changes in 2014 were much easier to make. Trestman was very clearly in over his head as an NFL head coach and Emery had created enough friction in the organization that he wasn’t nearly as respected as Pace still is inside Halas Hall. And while Nagy’s offense has been terribly disappointing, he is still held in high regard by his players and management. Still only 42 years old, Nagy will likely end up getting another opportunity as an NFL head coach and it would not be surprising to see him have success.

But while the personal respect matters, none of it changes the reality of the current state of the Chicago Bears. The order of the questions at Halas Hall go something like this:

- Who is the next quarterback and how do you create more cap space and more draft capital?

- Who should be the one making those decisions and if it’s still Pace, what do you do about his contract?

- If you opt for a new general manager, you can’t possibly demand the new GM keep the head coach like the Bears did to Emery in 2012, right? Right?

- And wait a minute. If there are firings, are the same people doing the hirings?

Put this down in permanent ink: The Bears will not change the direction of their franchise until they successfully find the quarterback to build around. But the steps they take in the next two months to determine who decides on the next quarterback will reverberate for years.

And time is already ticking.

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