On September 5th, the heartland of America will become the heartbeat for ravenous fans of professional football. The NFL will “kick” start its 100th season with a matchup of its oldest rivalry: Packers vs Bears!
Gambling, fantasy football, and even video games like the Madden series create a thirst for analytical statistical information. Everybody wants an edge.
Bear P.A.W.S. (Predictive Analysis With Statistics) uses numerical data to predict winning possibilities for Chicago victories. Time to look at this week’s numbers…
Simply put, Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears. Since starting for the Pack in ’08, Rodgers is 17-4 versus Chicago. Seventeen and four! Embarrassingly, those 17 wins to 4 losses are the most and least, respectively, against all divisional foes.
Placing both numbers (17 – 4) into perspective may be essential to winning Thursday night.
In those 17 wins, the Pack averaged 29.8 points per game. During that stretch, Rodgers tossed 41 TD to 8 INT, for a 5:1 ratio. Conversely, Green Bay never scored over 17 points in its 4 losses. Chicago successfully limited Rodgers to 4 TDS and 4 INTs for a 1:1 ratio in those games.
For added perspective, the Bears only lost 4 regular-season games in 2018. Chicago allowed 30.8 points per game in those defeats, one point more per average than what they’ve surrendered to a Rodgers-led offense. In their 12 wins last season, the defense held teams to 17 points or less 10 times. Clearly, the Bears are a more effective team when they hold the opposition to 17 points or less, as any team would be – they just happen to do so more often than most!
If you believe in karma, the number 4 is significant to Chicago besting Green Bay on September 5th.
Thursday marks Mitch Trubisky’s 4th start against the Pack, and thru 3 games his career numbers are solid (703 pass yards / 3TD / 0 INT / 65.3 completion %).
A win on opening night would be the Bears’ 4th home victory against Rodgers since he’s been Green Bay’s starting QB. Plus, Matt Nagy is the 4th Bears Head Coach to square off against Rodgers and the Packers since 2008. So, yeah, we’re strongly intimating there’s a chance for a Windy City win.
Keys to Winning:
• Must hold Aaron Rodgers/Packers to 17 points or less
• Must limit Rodgers TD:INT ratio to no better than 1:1
• Trubisky in his 4th start vs Pack must win this home game