Bears

For Bears, a cautionary tale if considering Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson with a high No. 1 pick

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USA TODAY

For Bears, a cautionary tale if considering Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson with a high No. 1 pick

“The best offensive line prospect ever.” Among his key traits: a to-the-echo-of-the-whistle meanness marked by driving one opponent into the turf, standing over him and snarling, “Now STAY there!” And his 30+ reps were among the power leaders for his position group at his Combine.

And he is not Quenton Nelson. He is/was/still is Tony Mandarich.

The Notre Dame offensive lineman is rated as the No. 1 or No. 2 best prospect in this year’s draft, a consensus day-one, plug-and-play, perennial Pro Bowler. As was Mandarich in his day, the can’t miss draft prospect if ever there was one.

The point is not to project Nelson for inclusion in a team photo of all-time NFL draft bust, which Mandarich is (more on that shortly). The point is the dangers of buying into the hype and, even more so in fairness to NFL evaluators, the epic difficulty of projecting college excellence into an NFL context.

The Bears at No. 8 may be confronted with a Nelson quandary: Is Nelson the next Mandarich (No. 2 overall, 1988) or Jonathan Cooper (No. 7 overall, 2013)? Or is he a John Hannah (No. 4, 1973, HOF class of 1991)?

The reasons for the uncertain outlook lie in the position group itself, and lead to more “reaches” than any position group other than quarterback.

Former Bears GM Jerry Angelo once said that, because of the dearth of NFL-grade front-five guys, offensive linemen routinely are drafted 1-2 rounds higher than their true grade. The supply chain has not gotten stronger in the last five years, since the days when Angelo committed to the position group with three No. 1’s spent on tackles in the span of 10 years: Chris Williams (2008, No. 14), Gabe Carimi (2011, No. 29) and Marc Colombo (2002, No. 29). Colombo (Dallas) and Williams (Bears, Rams, Bills) went on to serviceable careers of 10 and seven seasons, respectively, but it all points to the difficulty of hitting on picks with a bust/mediocrity potential second only to quarterback.

Bears GM Ryan Pace has not ignored the offensive line by any means, albeit with a success rate in the range of Angelo’s. Pace invested a fifth-round pick in Jordan Morgan last draft, a No. 2 on Cody Whitehair in 2016 and a No. 3 in Hroniss Grasu in his first (2015) draft – all addressing the interior at this point. Probably just coincidence here, but Angelo and Pace both are former college defensive linemen, and Angelo often copped to how hard it’d been for him to score with up-front prospects on that other side of the football. Pace hit on Whitehair, Morgan’s rookie year was spent on IR, and Grasu is in a battle for a roster spot, giving Pace a net “Incomplete” grade on his O-line drafting.

The character factor

Maybe The Mandarich Experience was all a casualty of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. But the jinx (which really refers to solo cover portraits more than in-action shots) didn’t take down Michael Jordan, Jack Nicklaus or a lot of others. So cover-boy status isn’t the culprit.

Over-estimation or over-drafting (for need) usually is. Over-hype can enter in but hopefully personnel departments have appropriate filters in place for white noise.

Is Nelson really on a level with John Hannah or Gene Upshaw, even Steve Hutchinson or David DeCastro, or Kyle Long for that matter?

Best guess is that Nelson is in fact the polar opposite of Mandarich. Nelson has gone through the Combine, pro days, workouts and the rest with the same chip on his shoulder that he’s had since he came to Notre Dame. Mandarich firmly believed he was the hype and by his own admission, without the hunger.

Coaches are consultants on draft personnel decisions but don’t make them. While Matt Nagy will be in the draft room, he isn’t likely to be pounding the table for an offensive lineman on day one (round 1) or two (rounds 2-3). As mentioned previously, during Nagy’s years (2008-12) with some very good Philadelphia teams under Andy Reid, the Eagles took just one offensive lineman higher than the fourth round. And that one pick was a guard (Danny Watkins) taken at No. 23, who was a bust.

Why Leonard Floyd is the key to the Bears' defensive success

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USA Today Sports Images

Why Leonard Floyd is the key to the Bears' defensive success

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — For all the attention heaped on Roquan Smith in the last 48 hours, he’s not the most important player to determining the success of the Bears’ defense in 2018. 

Rightly, the Bears feel good about their depth at inside linebacker, especially now that the No. 8 overall pick is in the mix. Smith, Danny Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski being at the top of the depth chart is solid at worst; John Timu is entering fourth year in Vic Fangio’s defense, and rookie Joel Iyiegbuniwe has some promise. 

This isn’t to diminish the importance of Smith, who represents the biggest (and, arguably, only major) addition to the Bears’ defense made in the 2018 offseason. But if you’re looking for the guy whose performance will be the most critical to the success of this defense, look toward the last Georgia product the Bears took with a top-10 pick. 

Given the upside of Leonard Floyd and where the Bears stand at outside linebacker three and a half weeks before the start of the regular season, that’s your guy. And over the last few weeks, Floyd has practiced and played better and better, providing an encouraging sign for a guy the Bears are betting big on this year. 

“He’s feeling more comfortable,” Trevathan said. “So I’m just happy with the direction he’s heading. It’s just going to make our defense better with Flo flying around.”

The Bears have seen flashes from Floyd in the past, but he’s yet to put together much in the way of consistency when it comes to affecting the quarterback. His 11 1/2 sacks in 1,118 career snaps come out to an average of one sack every, roughly, 102 snaps in 22 career games. For a guy that’s averaged 51 snaps per game his first two years in the league, that averages out to about one sack every two games. 

If you factor in quarterback hurries, of which he has 21 in two years, Floyd is affecting the quarterback once every 34 snaps. Pernell McPhee, who the Bears released earlier this year, averaged a sack or a hurry once every 24 snaps, abeit in a small sample size. Von Miller, who Floyd is sharing practice fields with this week, averaged a hurry or sack once every 26 snaps in the last two years over 1,828 snaps. 

These numbers don’t factor in a lot of things, like coverage assignments or flat-out statistical misses of hurries (for instance, Floyd wasn’t credited with a hurry in last week’s preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals, despite his pressure on quarterback Andy Dalton forcing a throw Kyle Fuller picked off and ran back for a touchdown). But the overall point is this: The Bears need Floyd to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and be that double-digit-sack guy they envisioned when drafting him two years ago. 

Floyd isn’t putting that pressure on himself, though, and stuck to the usual one-day-at-a-time answer when asked how he achieves better consistency and what his goals are for the season. 

“Going out and practicing and just going as hard as you can, fixing your corrections and just continuing to be better every day,” Floyd said. 

If Floyd was a little reserved about his own expectations for the season, his teammates are more than willing to do the talking for him. 

“Even if he’s not flashy in the way you would want to see your outside linebacker flashing, he’s scaring offenses, you know what I’m saying?” defensive end Akiem Hicks, who tabbed Floyd as a Pro Bowl favorite as early as April, said. “So he already put that intimidation factor in there, and then to come up with the plays on top of that, the sky’s the limit for that guy. You just look at the body of work that he’s had as far as putting it in the past couple years, you’re waiting for that moment where he just takes over the league, and I think it’s this year.”

“He’s more disruptive,” Trevathan said. “I see a sense of him trying to create more big plays. Instead of just a sack, more to it. Sack/caused fumble. Getting the quarterback’s (vision). He’s guarding, dropping back. He’s doing everything that Flo is supposed to do even better now.”

Another positive point in Floyd’s favor is outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley seeing him talking more in meetings and growing more comfortable with his role and position on this defense. While Floyd isn’t going to be a vocal leader in that room — that role is ably filled by Sam Acho — his teammates are starting to notice his performances in practice. 

“I think our guys know that Leonard can do so many things for us,” Staley said. “They lean on him by his example — how he is in the practice field, how he is in the meetings. He's been doing a good job.”

But the most important point on Floyd may be this: The Bears bet big on him, and are betting big on him, based on how they addressed outside linebacker in the offseason. Aaron Lynch was brought in on a one-year, prove-it deal, but the injury issues that dogged him in San Francisco have returned during training camp (he’s only participated in one practice due to a hamstring injury). Acho was re-signed to a two-year deal, rewarding him for the stable play he’s provided over the last few years, but he’s only recorded four sacks in 47 games with the Bears. Ryan Pace waited until the sixth round before drafting an edge rusher, giving a flier to Kylie Fitts. Isaiah Irving, an undrafted rookie from a year ago, has flashed in a few preseason games dating back to last year but didn't record a sack in his 41 snaps on defense in 2017. 

Those moves screamed one thing: The Bears believe in Floyd, and believe if he has the kind of season they think he can have, they didn’t need a massive addition to their group of edge rushers. That doesn’t mean Pace won’t make a move for an edge rusher before or after cut-down day in September, but unless he were to pay an exorbitant price to trade for Khalil Mack, whoever is brought it won’t be viewed as the team’s No. 1 edge rushing option. 

That would be Floyd, who’s shown in the last few weeks that he’s past his season-ending knee injury from 2017. It’s now on the third-year player to make that leap in production and play a major role in the success of a Bears’ defense that, other than Smith, largely stood pat this spring. 

Under Center Podcast: Takeaways from the Bears’ joint practice in Denver

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AP

Under Center Podcast: Takeaways from the Bears’ joint practice in Denver

JJ Stankevitz and The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain break down the Bears’ joint practice with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday, including how Roquan Smith looked, some encouraging signs for the offense and an enjoyable sequence of pass-rushing drills involving Von Miller.

Listen to the full Under Center Podcast right here: