Bears general manager Ryan Poles made his big NFL draft move earlier than expected. The Carolina Panthers wanted the certainty that comes with picking first overall and paid a premium price to acquire the No. 1 overall pick from the Bears just before free agency opened.
Poles could have waited to trade the pick, hoping to either increase the value of the asset or trade down twice to secure more draft capital. But he didn't want to get greedy and lose the deal he liked, so he shipped the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina for wide receiver DJ Moore, the No. 9 overall pick, No. 61, a 2024 first-round pick, and a 2025 second-round pick.
The Bears' decision to move when they did was wise, and it could get even better if some of the top quarterbacks fall out of favor.
"Well, look, you never know how it's going to shake out once everybody does all their homework and gets to the finish line on the quarterback evaluations," NFL Media draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said Thursday on a pre-draft conference call about how the value of the Bears' trade decision has changed. "I would say that it feels like, and the teams I've talked to, there's a clear-cut No. 1 [QB]. When that happens, you end up getting a pretty good price. Even that being said, with the haul they got when you include the player that they got in DJ Moore, I don't know that they would have been able to do better [if they waited]. I think that was smart on his part. He got a deal he liked. He was comfortable with it, and he wasn't going to wait to see if there was anything better out there and maybe miss out on that opportunity.
"So I thought it was smart to go to nine. It made the most sense. I love the return they got, and the crazy thing about it is, I think as we're a week out, I think never would have thought this when they made that trade, but they might be sitting there with more quarterbacks still on the board when they pick at nine and
might be faced with another opportunity to continue to add more picks. I really thought that was the smart move that they made."
Poles is willing to trade the No. 9 pick and move down again. Of course, the price would have to be right for the Bears to give up the opportunity to pick in the top 10 entirely.
When the Bears made the trade seven weeks ago, it looked like four quarterbacks would go in the top five. But that narrative has shifted over the past week.
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Alabama's Bryce Young is almost a mortal lock to go at No. 1 overall. But it appears the Texans might go defense at No. 2, and the Arizona Cardinals are looking to move out of the No. 3 spot but have yet to find a deal to their liking. The Indianapolis Colts will likely go quarterback at No. 4, but the Seahawks (No. 5), Lions (No. 6), and Falcons (No. 8) are all unlikely to draft a signal-caller.
Ohio State's C.J. Stroud was once in the mix to be the No. 1 pick, but his draft stock has dipped in the past week, and there's now a chance he could slide into the back end of the top 10. Kentucky's Will Levis has been connected with the Colts at No. 4, but there's a chance he could start to drop if Indy passes on him.
Jeremiah believes the potential for one or two quarterbacks to fall increases if they don't go in the top five. If they are still on the board in the eight, nine, and 10 range, expect several teams to be looking to move up.
"To me, if they're not good enough to go up there in the top five, they get to 10," Jeremiah said. "Now you bring in a whole new wave of teams that could be in the quarterback market and can trade up. We've seen that in years past. We saw it in, gosh, what was it, the Mahomes draft with him and Watson. Those 10,
12, that area. There seems to be kind of that new sweet spot for quarterbacks. You saw Justin Fields go in that range. You saw Mac Jones go in that range. I think a lot of times we assume these quarterbacks are all going to roll and go off the board in the top five, but there's a lot of history over the last handful of years where that 9, 10 to 15 range has been a spot where you could see teams go get one."
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Should one or two of the top signal-callers fall, the Bears will be in a prime position to once again extract maximum value from a team trying to move up to secure their future franchise quarterback.
Poles already stocked the Bears' draft cupboard in the deal with the Panthers, but an opportunity could present itself to get the rest of the historic return he planned to get.
The trade with the Panthers was a win. But there's a chance for more if things break the Bears' way in Round 1.