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Film review: Trubisky's interception, Foles' ‘clinic'

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NBC Sports Chicago’s Adam Hoge and JJ Stankevitz break down two plays from the Bears’ 30-26 win over the Atlanta Falcons that illustrate why Matt Nagy benched Mitch Trubisky for Nick Foles. First up: Hoge looks at what might be Trubisky’s last pass with the Bears.

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Hoge: It’s 3rd-and-8 so the Bears need to get to the 48-yard-line here. Darnell Mooney (orange) and Jimmy Graham (blue) are going to run shallow crossers underneath. Against man-coverage, they could have enough room to catch-and-run for the first down. Anthony Miller (yellow) is going to run a post-route, while Allen Robinson (red) is going to run an in-breaking dagger, which should be open against zone coverage. It’s up to Trubisky to identify the coverage.

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Hoge: Give the Falcons credit here. They showed blitz and made it tough on Trubisky to know which defenders were coming. It’s natural to think the Falcons are blitzing, which means man-coverage. But that’s not what happens. Atlanta drops back in a Cover-2 shell, with linebacker Deion Jones (orange) flipping his hips and running with Anthony Miller on the post route.

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Hoge: Bears quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo said Monday: “I just don’t know if he saw the coverage roll back to Cover-2 at the snap of the ball. I don’t know. I have not talked to him about that play yet, but that would be my guess is that he got fooled a little bit coverage-wise.”

Whether or not Trubisky processed the coverage, he did not read Falcons defensive back Blidi Wreh-Wilson. This screenshot is frozen at the moment Wreh-Wilson starts to break on Graham’s route. Trubisky is still holding onto the football, which tells you the defensive back is reading the quarterback’s eyes. 

“They zoned us out on that play and you get an over/under with the hook-to-curl defender and so there’s a zone read there,” Nagy said. “I think he didn’t feel or see that flat defender.”

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Hoge: Trubisky telegraphs the throw to Graham, not realizing that the dagger is now wide open as a result of Wreh-Wilson breaking on Graham. 

“If he could have that back he would probably end up trying to throw the dagger route to A-Rob right behind there,” Nagy said. 

To Trubisky’s credit, he hustled and tackled Wreh-Wilson after the interception, otherwise this would have been a pick-6. There’s no question that effort helped the Bears’ comeback.

But this was the last straw for Trubisky, especially after Nagy’s public challenge in the offseason to become “a master at understanding coverages.”

JJ: Remember when Nagy kind of walked back the master of coverages thing in naming Trubisky his starting QB before the season?

“I think first of all master is a strong word,” Nagy said. “That takes a while to get to. But I think that he’s doing a really good – he’s definitely, 100 percent growing in understanding coverages. And I think that’s all you can ask for. Master, I think there’s only a few of those right now when you really think about it. But he is doing everything that we asked in regards to progression and understanding where defenses are at.”

Looking back, that comment above from Nagy maybe was the best indication of how short Trubisky’s leash was. As in: Hey, I challenged him to be a master of coverages; although he got better, he didn’t totally do it, but I’m not going to say that while naming him my starter. 

Certainly, Trubisky isn’t the first quarterback with 40+ games of starting experience to mis-read a defense and throw an interception. But when these mistakes pile up over the years, an egregious one can’t be written off. And it kind of feels like Nagy was ready to turn to Foles as soon as Trubisky started making the same mistakes he made in 2018-2019, does it not?

Hoge: It wasn’t just the failure to master coverages. The Bears wanted to see Trubisky be better in key situations -- particularly on third down and in the red zone. Nagy’s frustration built up throughout the game and it started early when the Bears were settling for field goals. 

“We cannot come away with field goals,” Nagy said. “To have a field goal on that first drive … and then to miss it drives me nuts.”

Then you throw in the overthrown deep ball to Anthony Miller and this third down interception and it all adds up. It was time to go to Foles. And the next play shows us exactly why the move was warranted.

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JJ: The Bears don't win Sunday without this play. Here's how it happened. 

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JJ: The Falcons drop eight into Cover 2 with the Bears needing to pick up six yards for a first down. Cornerback Darqueze Dennard and safety Jaylinn Hawkins (red circles) will be in coverage while Ginn (orange arrow) runs a deep corner route. Tight end Demetrius Harris chips edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. (navy circle) before releasing into the flat.

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JJ: Foles knows exactly where he’s going with this ball when he reads the defense at the snap, but has to make sure Dennard doesn’t drop deep enough to affect the throw to Ginn. So he has to freeze Dennard, just for a fraction of a second, with his eyes. Harris is running into the flat, and while he’s well short of the line to gain (yellow), Foles allows him to be just enough of a threat to make sure Dennard isn’t falling back with Ginn. 

“You still have to hold the corner down with your eyes because we were slamming to the flat where the corner can get a little bit of depth if he needed to because there’s nothing in the flat to affect him right away,” quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo explained. “So you have to hold that corner down with your eyes for just a split count to be able to hit that sweet spot against Cover 2.”

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JJ: How many times has Ginn run a deep corner route against Cover 2 in his 14-year career? And how many times has Foles hit a deep corner route against Cover 2 in his nine-year career? (Hint: A lot is the answer for both.) 

Even though Foles and Ginn might not have much of a rapport, they’re both veterans who understand exactly what needs to be done to beat this coverage. Foles releases the ball as soon as Ginn breaks toward the numbers, with an open gap between the corner and the safety. Right in the sweet spot.

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JJ: Ginn has about three yards of separation from Dennard and about two from Hawkins. Boom, 29 yards just like that on fourth and six. Foles’ throw from the far hashmark to beyond the near numbers traveled easily over 30 yards in the air, and he put it right on the money. 

“That’s clinic tape for a Cover 2 play,” Nagy said. “We had our chip blocks down below, our protection was good, our timing was good, the route was perfect, the throw was perfect.”

Hoge: From this point on, everything Foles does well is going to sound like an indictment on Trubisky, but this is another great example of Foles executing against the same coverage Trubisky failed to identify earlier in the game. Nagy called this “the best play in the game” and he’s right, the Bears’ comeback doesn’t start without Foles making this 29-yard completion happen on 4th-and-6 with 8:23 left in the game.

JJ: I asked DeFilippo how difficult that throw was, on a scale of 1-10, and he said it was a 7 because he needed to freeze Dennard with his eyes - and, as you explained above, Trubisky didn’t use his eyes well on the interception he threw. So there’s another aspect of it that feels like an indictment of Trubisky.

And you’re absolutely right, Adam, the Bears don’t win without this throw. Atlanta would’ve taken over possession at the Bears’ 42-yard line with a little more than eight minutes left. If that drive results in a field goal, the Bears are chasing 19 with probably less than six or seven minutes left in the game. That’s not happening. 

Also: Can we get some love for Ginn on this route? This wasn’t *all* about Foles’ throw. 

Hoge: Ginn has been an afterthought and was even inactive last week. It’s obvious the Bears feel like Darnell Mooney is a better option this point. But Ginn is still a savvy veteran and it’s almost like the Falcons’ poor secondary forgot about him. I know I did. I had to do a double-take when I saw No. 19 caught the ball. 

JJ: I asked Allen Robinson about the play (he wasn’t on the field for it) and he broke it down like this, which is where we’ll end:

“It being fourth-and-six you don’t know what kind of coverage you’re going to get,” Robinson said. “Even for like Atlanta, fourth-and-six was little bit of a mix of man and zone for them. So, with both the quarterback and receiver being able to read that it was cover 2, as far as Ted’s angle of departure from the kind of vertical part of his route was perfect.

“Again, he gave the quarterback a great angle to throw the ball and the ball was threw there and placed perfectly for us to get a nice chunk play on fourth-and-six."

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