Bears season prediction: Game-by-game picks, analysis
Matt Nagy is 4-0 against Matt Patricia, and Mitch Trubisky has a passer rating of 132.4 with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in three games against the Lions’ defense over the last two years. While the Bears likely will be without Robert Quinn on Sunday, the Lions will be hurt more by not having wide receiver Kenny Golladay and right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
Result: Win (1-0)
The Bears got an ugly win over a bad Giants team last year, and New York shouldn’t be much better in 2020. Daniel Jones led the NFL with 18 fumbles in 2019; if he hasn’t fixed those issues by Sept. 20, Khalil Mack is going to eat.
Result: Win (2-0)
Riding the momentum from Weeks 1 and 2, Trubisky and the Bears’ offense roll into Atlanta and grit out a tough, close win. Kyle Fuller’s career renaissance began in 2017 with a solid game covering Julio Jones, and three years later he seals the win with a late interception on a pass intended for Jones.
Result: Win (3-0)
Eddie Goldman’s absence will be felt against a dominant Colts offensive line with two excellent running backs in Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor. There’s no shame in losing to the Colts, who might be a sneaky Super Bowl contender this year.
Result: Loss (3-1)
By early October, Jaylon Johnson should have his feet under him as a starting NFL cornerback – and he has a good showing on Thursday Night Football against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I think the Bucs are a better team than the Bears, but weird stuff always happens on Thursday night (especially, I expect, in the middle of a pandemic).
Result: Win (4-1)
Carolina’s roster tear-down is in Year 1, and they’re much more likely to land a top pick to draft Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields than they are to beat the Bears. All of a sudden, the Bears are looking pretty good with Trubisky at quarterback and a defense finding its groove.
Result: Win (5-1)
The Rams might sneakily be a good team in 2020 – Football Outsiders’ DVOA projections has them pegged as the ninth-best team in the NFL entering the season. There’s still a ton of top-end talent in Los Angeles, Sean McVay is still a smart coach and this is still a long trip to play on Monday night.
Result: Loss (5-2)
I picked New Orleans to go 13-3, earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed and reach the Super Bowl. The Saints have the best roster and arguably best coach in the NFC, and blew out the Bears without Drew Brees or Alvin Kamara last year. Will Nagy be tempted to look toward Nick Foles after this game?
Result: Loss (5-3)
Ryan Tannehill probably isn’t going to average 9.6 yards per attempt again in 2020. Titans’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a bright mind, but the Bears’ defense has fared well against iterations of the Gary Kubiak/Mike Shanahan scheme the last few years. This is a low-scoring slog the Bears narrowly emerge from with a win, and Trubisky hangs on to his job.
Result: Win (6-3)
Nagy improves to 5-0 against Mike Zimmer, whose teams rushed for a combined 62 yards in their last two trips to Soldier Field. The Bears head into their off week feeling awfully good about their postseason hopes with Trubisky as their quarterback.
Result: Win (7-3)
The Bears had an early off week in 2019 and had some injuries linger deep into the season. 2020’s later-season off week should help some guys stay fresh for the stretch run.
Nagy is 0-2 following off weeks and hasn’t won in two trips to Green Bay. Could this be the last time Aaron Rodgers plays the Bears at Lambeau Field? Maybe that’ll be the best way to look at another tough game in Wisconsin.
Result: Loss (7-4)
There’s no better way to get a bad taste out of your mouth from losing to the Packers than the cool, refreshing mouthwash that is Patricia’s defense. Matthew Stafford will be having a great season by this point, but it won’t be enough to overcome his coach being out-matched by Nagy – again.
Result: Win (8-4)
All the Bears need to do is win two of their last four games to get into the playoffs. But Zimmer finally gets the best of Nagy in Minnesota, with a team I think not only wins the NFC North but makes the NFC Championship.
Result: Loss (8-5)
Houston’s roster is deeply flawed, yet still has one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL on it. DeShaun Watson follows in Patrick Mahomes’ footsteps in beating the Bears – and Trubisky – in Chicago.
Result: Loss (8-6)
A lot can happen between now and two days after Christmas. The tanking Jaguars already have moved on from Gardner Minshew and are about to lock up the No. 1 overall pick. And you know what that means? Mike. Glennon. Revenge. Game. It, uh, doesn’t go well for Jacksonville.
Result: Win (9-6)
The winner of this game will get the NFC’s final playoff spot. Maybe just stop reading here. But if you’re brave enough: The Bears don’t have a great history when it comes to needing to beat the Packers in Week 17 to get into the playoffs. Rodgers makes sure this isn’t his final game with Green Bay, and the Bears miss the postseason in gutting fashion.
Result: Loss (9-7)
