David Montgomery could be a fantasy football steal in 2020

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Last year this time, Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery was considered one of the top rookies to target in fantasy football leagues because of his predicted role in Matt Nagy's offense one season after the team went 12-4 and appeared destined for similar success in 2019.

Montgomery's rookie season didn't go quite as planned and in a lot of ways was summed up the Bears' year as a whole. He was pretty average and Chicago finished 8-8. And much like how the Bears are being viewed as a team that's unlikely to challenge for playoff contention in 2020, Montgomery's outlook in fantasy football has fallen way below what anyone would've predicted.

According to Fantasy Pros, Montgomery's early average draft position (ADP) is 50. In a 12-team league, that means he's a fifth-round pick. What's more shocking is that he's the 20th running back selected in fantasy drafts right now behind players like David Johnson (Texans), Todd Gurley (Falcons), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars) and Jonathan Taylor (Colts). Essentially, Montgomery is being viewed as a low-end RB2.

Maybe it's a fair ranking after he totaled just 889 yards and six touchdowns in 2019. His 3.7 yards per carry is what's usually produced by below-average runners, and the Bears' lack of an established presence behind center doesn't help his cause.

But players like Montgomery often become league-winners for fantasy owners. 

Schooled fantasy players know that running backs who are uncontested for touches, the guys who are the only realistic option for carries, end up producing better-than-expected numbers because of sheer volume. With no other running back on the roster aside from Tarik Cohen to challenge Montgomery for backfield duties, there's no reason to assume he'll get less than 20 touches per game. And if you can land a running back in your fantasy league who touches the ball that many times in today's NFL? That's valuable.

It's true that Montgomery's 2019 season didn't produce the numbers fantasy owners expected, but he was a victim of usage at times. He had three games with 11 or less carries and received fewer than 15 carries in nine of his 16 appearances. It's hard for a player with Montgomery's skill set to get rolling without more touches; expect that to change in 2020.

If healthy, Montgomery will eclipse 1,000 rushing yards this season. He'd have to be an epic failure not to. If he averages 15 carries per game and hovers just over four yards per carry, he'll hit that number. And that's probably his production floor. It has to be. Otherwise, the Bears have a big problem at running back that will require another draft pick in 2021 to fix.

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