In his four previous drafts, Bears GM Ryan Pace and staff have been able to develop a “cloud” of players they assess as being worth the first-round pick that they held entering that draft. Their target clouds have ranged from three to seven players, and in each draft, they have emerged with one of their desired players.
But in each of those drafts Pace and the Bears were in a position to use a rifle approach rather than a shotgun. They began the 2015 draft at No. 7 (Kevin White); at No. 11 in 2016, then traded up into the top 10 at No. 9 (Leonard Floyd); No. 3 in 2017, then dealt away picks to move up to No. 2 (Mitchell Trubisky); and at No. 8 in 2018 (Roquan Smith).
A month from now, however, the Bears will in all likelihood watch day/round one with interest, obviously, but also with the knowledge that their “No. 1” was Khalil Mack via trade last August. And they don’t have a ticket to the start of day/round two, although trading their 2019 No. 2 last draft got them wide receiver Anthony Miller, who led the team with 7 TD receptions.
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The Bears aren’t scheduled to pick until No. 87, a slot at which the Oakland Raiders rolled dice on defensive end Arden Key, once rated as a first-round lock before off-field issues sent his stock plummeting. Key developed as 2018 proceeded and gave the Raiders a true value pick for his slot.
Picking at No. 8, for example, means that no more than seven desirables can be swept up before the draft turn comes. At 87, the number goes to, well, 86. That is not a “cloud;” it is a weather front.
But the 2019 draft may in fact break nicely in the Bears’ favor, and there are two ways it can happen.
Depth matches needs
NFL
The Bears to this point in free agency have needs at running back and edge rusher (edge rusher is ALWAYS a “need”). As good fortune would have it, those are squarely among the position groups where the 2019 draft is deepest.
“Everything they need right now is in line [with the draft’s strengths],” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said on Tuesday via conference call. “This is a year when you can find a good running back in the third, fourth and fifth rounds… .
“And they’ve done a good job identifying day three guys.”
Exactly which “guys” the Bears identify will remain secrets on their draft board. But the Bears found Pro Bowl defensive tackle Henry Melton in the 2009 fourth round; Jordan Howard’s selection on the 2016 fifth round has been exhaustively documented. Left tackle Charles Leno lasted until pick No. 246 (seventh round) in 2014, a draft in which Pro Bowl offensive linemen Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan and Zach Martin went in the first round, Joel Bitonio in the second, Trai Turner in the third, and Leno, who was the 20th and final tackle taken in that draft.
Getting lucky
The Bears’ draft board will provide a “cloud” of whatever size Pace and staff determine to be reasonable. A cloud of 20 “we could live with these” may not be unrealistic.
But in every draft there are major surprises, both up and down. Not every team had Trubisky as its second-highest-rated player, or even quarterback for that matter. But he went No. 2 overall.
Conversely, Deshaun Watson was viewed as a possible No. 1 overall pick. Instead, he fell not only to No. 12 and Houston, but below both Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City at No. 10).
Inevitably, a gem or two will drop precipitously by the end of next month, whether for reasons of reevaluation or other issues. Despite ranking at one time 1-2 with John Elway in 1983, Dan Marino free-fell to No. 27, past Todd Blackledge at No. 7, past Tony Eason at no. 15, past Ken O’Brien at No. 24, because of whispers of a marijuana concern.
The Bears have benefited from unexpected plummets.
Alex Brown was rated a first-round talent coming out of Florida in 2002. Questions about his work ethic left him around when the Bears’ fourth-round pick came at No. 104. Brown finished his career fourth on the Bears’ all-time sack list (43.5). Franchise leader and HOF’er Richard Dent lasted until the then-eighth round because he was too small.
“You stay with your board,” Kiper said, “but then there’s always a {highly graded] guy who drops into that [later] round. Then you go get him… .
“[The Bears] should end up pretty well.”
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