Bears Insider

Deal or no deal? Examining potential trade packages for No. 1 pick

Bears Insider
Ryan Poles

Bears general manager Ryan Poles has a lot of big decisions to make this offseason, starting with finding the best possible trade package for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Bears will take their time finding a deal. Those conversations likely will start in earnest at the NFL Draft Scouting Combine at the end of the month, and a trade probably won't be agreed on until after the free-agent quarterback carousel has stopped spinning.

Decisions by Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo all could impact which teams become interested in trading up for the No. 1 pick.

The Bears should have plenty of trade options once the free-agency dust settles. They could look to acquire a haul of draft assets or a star player. Perhaps they'll prioritize staying in the top five or will just look to take the best return possible.

Using ProFootballFocus' Mock Draft simulator, I put together four different trade packages the Bears could entertain as the 2023 NFL Draft gets closer. All trade proposals received at least an 80 percent chance of being accepted, and only one was turned down.

Let's get to the fun.

Easy street

Colts get: No. 1 overall pick, 2024 fourth-round pick

Bears get: No. 4 overall pick, No. 35 overall pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick

It just makes too much sense.

After spending years on the veteran quarterback merry-go-round, the Colts are ready to build around a young franchise quarterback and new head coach Shane Steichen. General manager Chris Ballard has said he would do "whatever it takes" to secure the quarterback the Colts want, and owner Jim Irsay tipped his hand Tuesday, saying Indy plans to "draft and develop" a quarterback.


The Colts could sit at No. 4 and see if either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud falls to them, but that's risky. With the rival Houston Texans sitting at No. 2, Ballard and Irsay won't want to risk Houston gobbling up their desired quarterback.

Weeks of negotiations lead to a deal that sees the Bears recoup the second-round pick they lost in the Chase Claypool trade, as well as a first and second-round pick in 2024. Poles throws in the Bears' 2024 fourth-round pick to seal the deal.

The Bears get the draft haul they covet and still get to stay in the top four to draft either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.

Percentage chance trade is accepted, per PFF: 80
Outcome: Accepted

Get a young star

Panthers get: No. 1 overall pick

Bears get: Brian Burns, No. 9 overall, No. 39 overall, 2024 first-round pick

This idea, courtesy of Eric Eager of Sumer Sports, is slowly growing on me. The Bears' main objective this offseason should be to add as much talent to the roster as possible.

Burns, 24, is coming off a season in which he notched a career-high 12.5 sacks. He's a budding star who would give the Bears the elite edge rusher needed to win in the modern NFL.

The Panthers and new head coach Frank Reich have a big hole at quarterback. While they would hate to trade Burns, the chance to draft either Young or Stroud might be too much to pass up.

Percentage trade is accepted, per PFF: "Likely"
Outcome: Accepted

So we didn't get Aaron Rodgers?

Raiders get: No. 1 overall pick

Bears get: Davante Adams, No. 7 overall pick, 2024 first-round pick

With Tom Brady retiring, the Raiders must move on to Plan B for life after Derek Carr.

Given his connection with Adams, Rodgers seems like their best option, with Jimmy Garoppolo looking like a nice fall-back plan.

But what if Rodgers returns to the Green Bay Packers or is traded elsewhere, and Garoppolo finds a home in Houston, Tampa Bay, Carolina, or New York?

If the dominoes fall that way, the Raiders might have to ride with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback in 2023. While Adams has stated his desire is to be a Raider, could a sketchy quarterback situation lead head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler to go through a "soft reboot"?

Trading Adams, 30, for the No. 1 pick would allow McDaniels to check off the most crucial box for a head coach, and he'd still have Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and perhaps Josh Jacobs to support the young quarterback.

There's probably only one scenario that sees the Raiders trade Adams, and it involves the star wide receiver asking for a new home.


Adams says he's happy in Las Vegas. But how long will that last without an acceptable option behind center?

Percentage trade is accepted, via PFF: "Likely
Outcome: Decline (there's no desperation toggle)

Back up the Brinks truck

Titans get: No. 1 overall pick, 2024 third-round pick

Bears get: No. 11 overall pick, No. 41 overall pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 first-round pick

We have spent a lot of time this offseason talking about the Colts and Texans, two teams in the AFC South in need of a long-term answer at quarterback.

RELATED: Steichen hire moves Bears, Colts closer toward draft trade

But the Titans enter the offseason in a sticky spot, needing to change course with their window closing fast. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 34 years old, and backup Malik Willis is years away from being a reliable option.

New general manager Ran Carthon was in San Francisco when the 49ers moved up for a quarterback in 2021. He knows he needs stability at the quarterback position to create a sustained winner.

It's a hefty price for Tennessee to pay, but if Carthon and head coach Mike Vrabel fall in love with one of the top guys, they might be willing to overpay for the right to get their guy. Desperation makes teams do any number of inadvisable things.

Percentage chance of being accepted, per PFF: 88
Outcome: Accepted

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