Hoge's 10 Bears Things: Matt Nagy still has a QB problem
The Bears have now lost two-straight and are big underdogs once again this week. Here are Adam Hoge's 10 Bears Things as the Bears head into the second half of the 2020 season.
If you haven’t noticed, the Bears still have a quarterback problem. Nick Foles has not been the upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky that he was supposed to be. Whatever he makes up in deep passes – which weren’t even connecting until Sunday against the Saints – he gives up in mobility and ability to avoid pressure.
There are many metrics that can be used to point out what is fairly obvious to the naked eye, but FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback ratings are particularly sobering because they have Foles ranked fifth among NFC North starters. That’s because Mitch Trubisky is actually ranked No. 3, behind Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford and ahead of Kirk Cousins. Foles comes in behind all of them. FiveThirtyEight's ELO metric tracks historical data for each franchise, and the Bears’ ELO rating is now lower than where it was before the season started. Trubisky actually slightly increased the rating in the first two weeks of the season and it reached i’s 2020 peak when Foles took over in Week 3 and led the comeback in Atlanta. But ever since, it’s been downhill.
Perhaps most concerning is that the Bears continue to have pre-snap communication issues. Foles was sold to the Bears fanbase as a quarterback who knows Nagy’s system and could run it smoothly, even if his physical limitations held him back some. At a minimum, the operation of the offense is not supposed to be choppy and only so much can be pinned on the offensive line or limited offseason due to COVID-19. Clearly, the head coach is getting frustrated.
“That's what bothers me and that's what pisses me off is that there is still that issue going on,” Nagy said. “And excuse my French. We're reading it from a wrist band, so, you know, I'm struggling with that right now. It's getting you into a hole so that has to change.”
Fixing the pre-snap communication issues is on Foles and Nagy. As Troy Aikman made very clear on the FOX broadcast Sunday, watching the Bears’ offense is “frustrating” because almost nothing seems easy. Perhaps things need to be simplified, which we frequently talked about with Trubisky.
Foles can also make post-snap improvements. There are two very noticeable problems on tape – one that can be fixed and one that can’t. He’s just not very mobile or elusive. That can’t be fixed. But he also drifts backwards too much and doesn’t step up in the pocket enough. That’s likely a result of not trusting the protection on the interior of the offensive line, but it also makes the tackles more vulnerable on the outside and leads to inaccurate throws.
“It's hard for those tackles if you do keep (backing up),” Nagy said. “I know that Nick is trying his damnedest to try to push up in the pocket and do different things. But that is a big part of that. And he'll be hard on himself on when he's doing it and not doing it, where his eyes are when the ball is coming out, where the accuracy is of the throws, his decision-making, etcetera. And then when the ball comes out, are we making catches and protecting? It all needs to be in unity. Right now, there's just a little bit of that off, which is a reflection of how we're going on offense.”
Trubisky made a sudden, brief appearance on the Bears’ first drive of the game when he faked a handoff and ran left for a short gain of three yards on first down.
That was it. No follow-up plays later in the game. Nothing.
“It's a weapon for us to be able to use his legs and then obviously be able to throw the ball as well,” Nagy said. “That's something that we're looking at and every game could be a little bit different but it's something that teams have to prepare for.”
Interestingly, safety Eddie Jackson briefly entered the offensive huddle right before the two-minute warning in the second quarter, but after the timeout, he was back on the sidelines. Was that a bluff or did the two-minute warning spoil the surprise?
These are the wrinkles Nagy was known for in 2018 when the offense was at least occasionally exciting. I don’t think anyone believes going back to Trubisky would suddenly fix everything, but there’s something to be said for his athleticism just being wasted on the bench. Jackson is special with the ball in his hands. Why not take advantage of that? Can’t get a push in short yardage situations? Why not use Akiem Hicks as a fullback again?
Anthony Miller hasn’t been very impactful in his third NFL season, but he delivered eight catches on 11 targets and 73 receiving yards against the Saints. A drop in overtime hurt, but when Miller can deliver a performance like Sunday, the Bears’ receiving trio of Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Miller is actually pretty good.
The problem is, Miller’s historical inconsistencies make it tough to believe in Sunday’s performance. Too often a good game is followed up with a bad game, which makes him tough to rely on. Getting more consistency out of Miller – and thus boosting the entire receiving unit – should be a priority in the second half of the season.
Back in August, the tight ends were the biggest non-QB story going. Jimmy Graham looked great in training camp and rookie Cole Kmet looked like the real deal. Even veteran Demetrius Harris showed an ability to catch the football and do more than just block.
But eight games into the 2020 season, it appears the Bears still have a tight end problem. Nagy finally bumped Kmet (30 snaps) ahead of Harris (five snaps) on the depth chart Sunday, but the rookie only had one target and he fumbled the ball before the officials decided forward progress was stopped. Graham had a bad game, only catching two passes on seven targets and committing a false start.
After the game, Graham tweeted: “I wasn’t good enough. I Let my team, city and myself down. I own it. I will be better.”
All of the tight ends need to be better, but the Bears’ best solution at the tight end position is Kmet, who they drafted No. 43 overall in April. Nagy vowed to get him more involved this week and he delivered with a slight increase in snaps, but Kmet still only played 43 percent of the game. Sometimes the targets don’t always come, but when Graham received seven targets and only caught two of them, perhaps some of those need to be going towards the rookie.
There’s no excuse for Javon Wims throwing cheap shot haymakers at Saints defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but there is some context that needs to be considered.
Last year when the Saints played at Soldier Field, Gardner-Johnson was one of a couple players who mocked running back Tarik Cohen for being short. Perhaps more notably, he was also the player Allen Robinson got visibly upset with after scoring a touchdown late in the game. It was an uncharacteristic outburst by Robinson – something that was clearly triggered by Gardner-Johnson.
And Sunday, there was also video of the Saints defensive back putting his finger in Anthony Miller’s face and snatching Wims’ mouthguard a few plays before the Bears’ wide receiver retaliated. Gardner-Johnson is also the player involved in the practice altercation with Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas a couple weeks ago.
Again, there’s no excuse for the way Wims retaliated, and he deserved the two-game suspension the NFL handed him Monday, but it’s also obvious that Gardner-Johnson is building a reputation as an agitator who might be crossing the line.
While the defense didn’t play a perfect game Sunday, it was encouraging to see the continued improvement of inside linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith. Trevathan probably had his best game of the season and he certainly made his best play of the season when he tackled Alvin Kamara for a three-yard loss on 3rd-and-4 with 2:32 left in the game to help setup the Bears’ game-tying field goal.
Smith, meanwhile, showed off his speed all game, tallying 11 tackles and two tackles for loss. He very nearly picked off Drew Brees in overtime on what could have been a game-winning pick-6.
Which brings us to the next item…
It may seem like an unfair bar to hold the defense to, but the “bend-but-don’t-break” mentality isn’t good enough when you have this offense. If Chuck Pagano's unit is going to play that way, they also need to force takeaways, which the defense didn’t do on Sunday.
One problem is that the pass rush isn’t getting home enough. 17 sacks in eight games is disappointing when you consider the money sunk into the pass rushers. Robert Quinn is accounting for $18.5 million against the salary cap this year and he has one sack. He has hit the quarterback twice. Yikes.
As the Saints marched into field goal territory to win the game in overtime, the defense missed multiple big play opportunities. Eddie Jackson had an interception go right through his hands. One play later, on 2nd-and-10, defensive tackle Bilal Nichols had Brees in his grasp, but he failed to bring him down. Brees hit wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith for 14 yards to put the Saints in fringe field goal range. Two plays later, nickelback Buster Skrine committed an obvious illegal contact penalty that made things worse.
It’s hard to put too much blame on the defense when they aren’t getting much help, but that side of the ball isn’t completely off the hook, either.
Cairo Santos continues to be one of the most positive developments of the season and the 51-yard field goal he hit to force overtime should not go unnoticed, especially on a very windy day at Soldier Field.
“All I was concerned with was if I had the range, because with the wind, 52, 53 in that direction—max—was my pre-game range, so I knew it was stretching it if it was really windy,” Santos said Monday. “But since it died down, I got the chance to see the first one go in pretty well. I knew I could repeat it. I’m lucky I got the chance to do that.”
Saints head coach Sean Payton tried to ice Santos before the kick, but he made the cardinal sin of calling the timeout too late, allowing the kicker to get a practice kick off. Santos drained it.
“I think it helps when a team does that. If I would call a timeout, I would call it before the kicker got a chance to kick it,” Santos said.
Soldier Field is never an easy place to kick and the Bears should feel very good about the fact that Santos went 3-for-3 on field goals and hit both of his extra points.
“I think that wind-wise, that was the toughest (conditions I’ve kicked in),” Santos said. “There’s been colder games and I think it was challenging because the ball wasn’t carrying. But wind-wise, there’s a couple that got close, but with the gusts yesterday it made it really trying. I think it was the top one of my career.”
The Titans suddenly look vulnerable after losing back-to-back games to the Steelers and Bengals. They almost erased a big deficit to the now 7-0 Steelers two weeks ago, but they barely showed up in Cincinnati Sunday.
Of course, that hasn’t stopped odds-makers from making Tennessee a big favorite against the Bears, as the Titans are already six-point favorites. The Titans’ defense has looked shaky at times, so maybe Nagy and Foles can build on some of the offensive momentum they created against the Saints, but Derrick Henry will be a load for the Bears’ leaky run defense.
Interestingly, the Titans traded for Chargers safety/returner Desmond King Monday. With league COVID-19 protocols in place, Sunday would be the earliest he could join the team and he would be doing so without any practice, but that will be something to monitor this week.
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