Bears coach Matt Nagy left little doubt as to some of the difficulties involved in staying at the level suggested by a 12-4 season like the Bears’ 2018.
“I think it’s hard to stay where we’re at,” coach Matt Nagy said at the Combine in late February. “Being 12-4. We’re 0-0 now. So that’s going to be my biggest challenge as the head coach is to make sure that there’s no complacency and our guys realize now that we’re now the hunted.”
Being “the hunted” is a compliment. And the NFL has affirmed Nagy’s assessment of his team.
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Fully half of the Bears’ 16 games in 2018 were played at varying points of “prime” time. The NFL may have had some inkling that those Bears were going to be something of note, initially giving them five off-noon games (two night, two 3 p.m., Thanksgiving), then flexing the home Vikings and Rams games to nights and the Game 16 at Minnesota game to late afternoon once the Bears had established that they were worth a national audience.
The NFL and the networks do like the Bears to be good – Chicago market, charter franchise and all that. Maybe very, very good.
So this year the league is starting them off with a 2019 schedule that already has eight games at “national” non-noon times: two Sunday nights, two Thursday nights, three late Sunday afternoon games, plus a Sunday, Oct. 6, game against the Oakland Raiders – in London.
The Bears this year go all the way to the end of October before they play a game with a “conventional” noon start time. Their first four games are all either Sunday second games or night games. Game five starts at noon in Chicago, but not for the Bears; they’ll be in London with Khalil Mack preparing to face his former team, the Oakland Raiders.
NFL
Flex scheduling could add or subtract two Sunday night games from those prime-viewing venues.
The Bears face four division winners; the Cowboys, Rams and Saints from the NFC, plus the Chiefs from their year facing the AFC West. The league has assigned the Bears’ games with Dallas, Los Angeles and Kansas City to evening prime time slots, with the Bears hosting New Orleans in a Sunday second game.
What the schedule makers have done for the Bears this season is to avoid a crucible like last year’s stretch in which the Bears faced Detroit twice and Minnesota in the span of 11 days. This season has five off days between Monday, Sept. 23, at Washington and three between the home game Nov. 24 vs. the Giants and the following Thursday in Detroit for Thanksgiving.
12 ‘W’s’ for ’18 a distinct longshot
Now the not-so-good news: The Bears are very, very unlikely to win 12 games in 2019. Very. Unlikely.
Reason: No 12-win team in 2017 matched that mark last season. And with rare exceptions, teams other than the New England Patriots simply do not repeat 12-win seasons. Maybe it’s the first-place schedules that come with division-winning victory totals, but in this decade, only the John Fox/Gary Kubiak Denver Broncos (four times from 2012-15), the Seattle Seahawks (2013-14), Baltimore Ravens (2010-11) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2010-11) have managed to repeat that lofty win level of achievement.
Now, the a-little-better news: Excepting New England because the Patriots are the exception to just about all things NFL, a 12-win team in virtually every year was the NFL’s No. 1 defense based on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average): 2010 Pittsburgh, 2011 Baltimore, 2013-14 Seattle, 2015 Denver. Only in 2012, when the Bears ranked No. 1, did the pattern vary, Denver ranking No. 5.
Investment houses point to the boilerplate bromide that past performance is not indicative of future performance. The Bears understand this all too well, going from 13 wins in 2001 to 4 in 2002, from 13 in 2006 to 7 in 2007, from 12 in 1988 to 6 in 1989. The Bears have put together consecutive double-digit-win seasons only once (2005-06) in nearly 30 years, and those 12-win teams did have very good defenses.
But the Bears fielded the NFL’s best defense in 2018, made incremental improvements already in free agency (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Buster Skrine) and can reasonably expect Year 2 jumps from Bilal Nichols and Roquan Smith.
Meaning: If Chuck Pagano can replicate the work of Vic Fangio with a unit that has had no significant personnel departures; and if the second year together in Matt Nagy’s offense produces what coach and players are touting – two colossal “if’s” on top of the usual “health” – the Bears will have a shot at their first consecutive 12-win seasons since 1985-86 and in the process earn their chance at expunging the rancid taste of their playoff loss.
The first-place schedule does impose a difficulty factor, giving the Bears six different opponents who were 2018 playoff teams. The 2017 fourth-place schedule made for four playoff teams last season; for what little it’s worth, the Bears were a combined 4-1 in those games, including two wins over Minnesota.
NFCN unknowns abound
But that was then and the “now” is fluid. The Bears had only five 2019 draft choices heading into the new league year, vs. Green Bay’s 10, Detroit’s nine and Minnesota’s eight. Sheer numbers suggest that the Bears’ division rivals will add some quality youth, a tack that has worked for the Bears particularly over the past two seasons.
The Bears are the only NFC North team without a new head coach (Green Bay) and/or offensive coordinator (Detroit, Green Bay and Detroit). The reported dysfunction in Green Bay point to a team in need of at least an emotion reset.
Detroit’s turn to Matt Patricia was a bumpy cultural transition that should be past its shakedown stage, and the Lions were up to No. 10 in yards allowed by the end of ’18, although just 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive rankings. The Vikings continue going through offensive coordinators the way the Bears once did with Jay Cutler (Kevin Stefanski is Minnesota’s fourth in the last three seasons), but among Minnesota head coaches, only Bud Grant and Dennis Green had better win percentages than Mike Zimmer.
Oh, and the Bears’ final record...
…even with the first three-game losing streak of the Matt Nagy era, will be a respectable 10-6. Good enough to win the NFC North again? It has been in two of the last six years, but 10-6 has been good enough for a wild card in five of the last six seasons.
Week 1: Green Bay Packers (6-9-1), Thursday, Sept. 5, 7:20 p.m.
The Packers are coming off their first consecutive losing seasons since pre-Brett Favre (’91) and are in a win-now mindset to a point approaching desperation. A coaching change was made and whether Matt LeFleur connects with Aaron Rodgers is part of the Great Unknown that Green Bay suddenly is. Randall Cobb follows Jordy Nelson out of town, while more than one-fourth of the Packers defense that opened ’18 is gone (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, all No. 1 picks). The Packers also hold 10 picks in the ’19 draft and are a team in a decidedly massive transition on both sides of the football.
The Bears shook off an opening-night “L” at Green Bay last September and then dominated the fourth quarter in winning at Soldier Field. This time the season starts in Chicago where last year’s Bears ‘W’ was the first since 2010.
Moon’s call: W (1-0)
Week 2: at Denver Broncos (6-10), Sunday, Sept. 15, 3:25 p.m.
The Vic Fangio Bowl, with the Bears’ ex-D-coordinator in his first head-coaching season, Denver’s third head coach in four years. The Broncos traded for QB Joe Flacco which is a major upgrade from Case Keenum/Trevor Siemian on top of a defense that still has fangs and a new coach with an understanding of Matt Nagy and the Chicago offense. Hard to imagine Bears facing a more motivated ‘D’ all year.
Moon’s call: L (1-1)
Week 3: at Washington Redskins (7-9), Monday., Sept. 23, 7:15 p.m.
Washington muscled up its pass defense getting S Landon Collins away from NYG. But trading to get Case Keenum says that Alex Smith is not returning soon and Keenum has been a sub-.500 QB even with that magical ’17 in Minnesota. Adrian Peterson at age 34 is coming off 1,042 yards, 7 TD’s and 4.2 ypc last season.
Moon’s call: W (2-1)
Week 4: Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1), Sunday, Sept. 29, 3:25 p.m.
Bringing in Kirk Cousins didn’t work out, the Vikes changed O-coordinators in-season and the Bears dominated both offensively and defensively at Minnesota in Game 16. A team that will still garner some love in the NFC North but the overall situation of quality DL Everson Griffen, whom the Vikings tried to trade this month, is a question. LB Anthony Barr backing out of a FA deal with the Jets to stay in Minnesota was a plus but the Vikings still lose DT Sheldon Richardson and may struggle to remain “elite.”
Moon’s call: W (3-1)
Week 5: at Oakland Raiders (6-10), Sunday, Oct. 6, noon, in London
Bears are 2-0 in regular-season games abroad. Raiduhs have had exactly one winning season since going to and losing the Super Bowl in 2002. They lost that SB to a Jon Gruden Tampa Bay team. Now they have Gruden as their coach and perhaps the most intriguing roster with WR Antonio Brown and LB Vontaze Burfict acquired and having made T Trent Brown the highest-paid O-lineman in NFL history. Four picks in draft’s top 35, including three No. 1’s, portend major talent infusion.
Moon’s call: W (4-1)
Week 6: OFF WEEK
Week 7: New Orleans Saints (13-3), Sunday, Oct. 20, 3:25 p.m.
Drew Brees quietly remains a gold standard for dependable, durable and very, very good. The Bears are a respectable 3-4 vs. Brees but the Saints should have been in the last Super Bowl and were a notch above the Bears last season. Adding ex-Pat Malcom Brown adds to a good DL, and ex-Vike Latavius Murray complements Alvin Kamara. A crucial home date with an opponent also thinking playoffs, meaning a head-to-head ‘W’ can matter.
Moon’s call: L (4-2)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (12-4), Sunday, Oct. 27, noon
The Chargers posted their first double-digit win total in nearly a decade, three losses coming vs. playoff teams, and did it with balance: No. 6 scoring offense, No. 8 in points allowed. Keenan Allen (97 rec.) and Mike Williams (10 TD) top a dangerous receiver group that had six with 28 or more catches. Philip Rivers just keeps rollin’ for a team that coach Anthony Lynn has playing well on both sides of the football.
Moon’s call: L (4-3)
Week 9: at Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), Sunday, Nov. 3, noon
The Jordan Howard Bowl: Bears playoff loss may have come off Cody Parkey’s foot but the Bears did fail to dominate a game with a 2-0 turnover edge and Mitchell Trubisky throwing to Allen Robinson for 143 yards and a TD. Howard’s 35 yards on 10 carries was dismal, but he’s now in a contract year and in Philly. WRs Golden Tate and Jordan Matthews are gone, but Eagles brought back DeSean Jackson for offensive firepower. Defense shaken up with exits of Michael Bennett and Tim Jernigan, but DE Vinny Curry wanted back from Tampa Bay, and Malik Jackson signed to be alongside Fletcher Cox may make for NFL’s best DT combo.
Moon’s call: L (4-4)
Week 10: Detroit Lions (6-10), Sunday, Nov. 10, noon
The coaching change to defense-based ex-Pat Patricia flopped in Year 1. But the Lions, who own nine ’19 draft choices, were aggressive in free agency, upgrading their defense with Patriots D-end Trey Flowers, who played for Patricia in New England, and nickel CB Justin Coleman, and addressing offense with ex-Patriot/Dolphin WR Danny Amendola plus Steelers TE Jesse James to help enigmatic QB Matthew Stafford. The Bears beat Detroit twice in less than two ’18 weeks.
Moon’s call: W (5-4)
Week 11: Los Angeles Rams (13-3), Sunday, Nov. 17, 7:20 p.m.
Throttling the LA offense (15-6) last December was a statement ‘W’ and launched the Bears on a closing kick of four straight victories. Bears ‘D’ exposed Jared Goff shortcomings vs. pressure, intercepting him four times, and New England underscored Rams beatability with defense. But Rams won’t fall for “Santa’s Sleigh” TD flip to OT Bradley Sowell this time. Win-now commitment adds OLB Clay Matthews from Green Bay to a team on a mission.
Moon’s call: L (5-5)
Week 12: New York Giants (5-11), Sunday, Nov. 24, noon
The only team to beat the Bears over the final 10 games has to try for a repeat in Chicago this time and may not have the benefit of facing Chase Daniel and his 2 INTs. But the dysfunctional G’ints are teetering close to freefall, giving up on Odell Beckham Jr. and trading that pillar of the offense. Saquon Barkley established “elite” as a rookie and burned the Bears, but Eli Manning has been a losing QB for five of the last six years and the emotional state of the Giants around that team has been anything but stable. Still, New York’s 12 draft choices portend changes in both long and short terms. Trading away edge rusher Olivier Vernon doesn’t upgrade defense, but teams (Seattle, Detroit) with WR Golden Tate, picked up from Philly, have won 10 of 11 vs. Bears… Just sayin’…
Moon’s call: W (6-5)
Week 13: at Detroit Lions (6-10), Thursday, Nov. 28, 11:30 a.m.
Thanksgiving Day may be a Detroit tradition, but Lions have a losing record all-time those days, including inaugural turkey-day loss to Bears in 1934 and last year. The Bears all-time 8-8 on Thanksgivings in Detroit. Ford Field never kind to Bears, who hadn’t won in Detroit since ’12 before last year. Bears won there last Thanksgiving with Chase Daniel at QB and Matthew Stafford turning the football over twice late in the fourth quarter. Now Detroit has the catching up to do.
Moon’s call: W (7-5)
Week 14: Dallas Cowboys (10-6), Thursday, Dec. 5, 7:20 p.m.
A mystery team, always. Cole Beasley wasn’t the center of the Dallas offense, but was a security blanket for Dak Prescott; now Beasley’s in Buffalo, taking with him a significant chunk of production. To replace Beasley, though, the Cowboys signed Randall Cobb to be the slot guy, and few receivers have damaged the Bears more than Cobb did over his time in Green Bay (9 TDs; Calvin Johnson had 11, Randy Moss 10, for comparison purposes). The defense loses Randy Gregory (6 sacks) to an indefinite suspension, and Demarcus Lawrence, re-signed to a long-term deal, has shoulder concerns for a defense with a shaky front seven.
Moon’s call: W (8-5)
Week 15: at Green Bay (6-9-1), Sunday, Dec. 12, noon
The three times the Bears have beaten the Packers since 2010 have been in Green Bay. What the Packers are by this time is anyone’s guess, whether they are a team on the rise with promising rookies supporting Rodgers, or a team trying to reestablish an identity. Will Rodgers and LeFleur be getting along at this point?
Moon’s call: L (8-6)
Week 16: Kansas City Chiefs (12-4), Sunday, Dec. 19, 7:20 p.m.
So many storylines, so little time. Mitchell Trubisky vs. NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes from the ’17 draft. Matt Nagy vs. mentor Andy Reid. Kansas City lost 22 of its 52 sacks when it released Justin Houston (9) and traded Dee Ford (13) to the 49ers, and two of the Chiefs’ top three CBs are gone. A team that felt it was ready for the Super Bowl, but for an offsides penalty on ‘D,’ will be on a mission to get there this time. The fate of Tyreek Hill hangs over the offense, which already is without RB Kareem Hunt.
Moon’s call: W (9-6)
Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1), Sunday, Dec. 26, noon
Bears finished ’18 with a decisive ‘W’ up north after too many seasons finished with losses to Minnesota. The Vikings haven’t had a losing season at home since ’11 but last year’s Bears sweep saw a combined 42 points and 640 yards put on Mike Zimmer’s defense.
Moon’s call: W (10-6)
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