Chicago Bears fans are hopeful for a return to NFC North supremacy in 2020. Two seasons ago it appeared as if the Bears would be kings of the division for years to come. Then came 2019's regression and doubt in the general manager, coaching staff and quarterback have returned.
If you're a believer in analytics, the doubt is justified.
According to Pro Football Focus' 2020 season simulation, the Bears will finish 2020 with just seven wins and in third place in the NFC North.
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Keep in mind that PFF didn't just go through the NFL schedule one time. They ran 10,000 simulations in their secret lab with a bunch of variables factored in:
With the help of our PFF Elo rating system, our grades and some market data, we’ve simulated the 2020 season 10,000 times and have distributions for win totals, divisional title odds, etc.
For football purists, computer simulations are meaningless. Games are won on the field, and things like injuries, weather and unexpected player development factor into real-life outcomes. It doesn't hurt that Robert Quinn will be hunting quarterbacks with Khalil Mack and Nick Foles will be throwing accurate passes to Allen Robinson.
Sometimes, you have to trust your eyes (and your gut), even when preseason analytics tell a different story.
NFL
Bears fans have a right to feel optimistic about 2020. The team is better. And while the popular narrative right now is the suggestion that Chicago will reside in the bottom half of the league in 2020, the on-field product should produce very different results.