Two years ago, the San Francisco 49ers went on the clock with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft with three options in front of them: the high-floor quarterback in Mac Jones, a potential superstar in Justin Fields, and an intriguing unknown in Trey Lance.
I was covering the 49ers at the time. From the moment general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan moved up to No. 3, all signs pointed to Jones being the desired selection. But after a month of diligent scouting, including a plane ride home from Fields' pro day where Shanahan drew up plays for Lance, the 49ers gambled and took the North Dakota State product.
The decision to select Lance, who started only 17 games at the FCS level, over the more proven and polished quarterback in Fields, and Jones, who fit Shanahan's system perfectly, greatly impacted the future paths of several franchises.
It was a bet that hasn't worked out for the 49ers. Lance sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo for the 2021 season and suffered a season-ending ankle injury just two weeks into the 2022 campaign. After Garoppolo went down a few weeks later, Brock Purdy took the reins and piloted the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game.
Purdy's rise led to him usurping Lance in the 49ers' future plans, and San Francisco reportedly has received trade calls for the former No. 3 overall pick, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported Wednesday.
Lance has been dealt a tough hand early in his NFL career. There's a case to be made that had Lance stayed healthy last season, we'd view him as a rising star alongside the quarterback guru in Shanahan.
But I'd argue the accuracy and general feel for the game needed to be a top-tier quarterback in the NFL weren't there, and time is needed for that to develop. It might never.
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This speaks to the 49ers' error in the 2021 NFL Draft, where Shanahan, Lynch, and the scouting department looked past some red flags -- experience, competition level, etc. -- and were wowed by the physical traits and projection of what Lance could become in their system. It's no surprise that the 49ers, who had trouble defending quarterbacks who could extend and make off-schedule plays, wanted to dip their toes in those waters.
But Fields was always the better choice if they wanted to go that route. Fields displayed accuracy and quick processing at Ohio State, and the athleticism was apparent even if he didn't need to show it off in Columbus.
The choice for the 49ers should have always been Fields or Jones. Trading away two future first-round picks to move up to get the third quarterback taken in the draft was a bold decision that, in hindsight, was a mistake. The 49ers errored both in evaluating the quarterbacks and the teams slated to pick in front of them. Lynch and Shanahan couldn't have known that Fields and Jones would slide out of the top 10, but there's a case to be made that the 49ers could have held pat at 12 or made a smaller trade-up, kept some capital, and still landed either Jones or Fields.
Instead, they rolled the dice on Lance and let Fields and Jones -- the second and third-best quarterbacks in the class -- fall to the Bears and Patriots, respectively. That Mr. Irrelevant arrived and bailed out Shanahan and Lynch is a job-saving elixir for a regime that appears to have straight-up whiffed.
The Lance saga is a reminder of a few things for the Bears as they speed toward what is a make-or-break year for Fields' development.
The 49ers (and Jets) gave them a gift in passing on Fields. Fields had been the unquestioned No. 2 quarterback in the class for over two years, and two teams just cruised past him and tied their franchise to guys with less production and pedigree.
Fields should never have fallen to the Bears at No. 11. It took an improbable number of teams, many of whom needed a quarterback (some still do), to put him in range for the Bears to jump and get.
It's a gift the Bears can't waste.
Fields' rookie season was a complete throwaway due to the dysfunction at the end of the Matt Nagy regime. That Fields showed growth in Year 2 despite being surrounded by one of the worst offensive lines and limited weapons is proof of his potential, drive, and talent.
That the Bears have relatively squandered the first two years of Fields' rookie deal, but his development remains on an acceptable track and not on the trade block where Lance finds himself is a minor miracle.
After two years of swimming upriver through the thickest sludge the NFL can find, it would be understandable -- hell, it's probably more likely than not that Fields would be broken and in need of a fresh start and some rebuilding.
Instead, he showed enough to force the regime that didn't draft him to trade the No. 1 overall pick and back him. Meanwhile, the 49ers are grappling with what looks like a massive draft blunder that is only salvageable due to Mr. Irrelevant's Super-Man act last season.
I wrote it then, and I still believe that Fields and Jones were better fits for the 49ers and where they were in their championship window. Neither quarterback has been perfect through two seasons, but both have shown impressive resolve in dealing with challenging circumstances that were not of their making.
Both quarterbacks enter Year 3 still firmly holding the reins of the franchise that drafted them, while the 49ers are clearly planting an "Open For Business" sign out front of Levi's Stadium about Lance.
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Lance's mirky NFL future should also serve as a cautionary tale for Fields and the Bears entering a season that has to end with a firm answer on his status as a franchise quarterback.
Life comes at you fast in the NFL. One day you're the No. 3 overall pick and the face of the future, and the next, you've been bypassed by a seventh-round pick and might have to resuscitate your career elsewhere.
You have to make the most of the opportunities given to you. Fields' accuracy has to improve, his decision-making must get better, and he has to get through his progressions faster. He's the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL with the ball in his hands. That's an unassailable fact. If he becomes a consistent pocket passer, then both he and the Bears will be on an escalator to another tier in the NFL hierarchy -- one Chicago and its quarterback have rarely occupied.
In order to transform that dream into a reality, the Bears have to give Fields everything he needs to be successful this fall. The addition of DJ Moore was important. A top-tier tackle is needed in next week's NFL draft, as is another pass-catching option.
The 49ers' decision to pick Lance over Fields was a gift to a quarterback-starved franchise. But the path from draft savior to NFL star is perilous to navigate.
Fields is about to arrive at a fork-in-the-road moment in his early NFL career. Can he harness his talent, take a leap toward stardom, and make Shanahan and Lynch regret passing on him? Or will he find himself in Lance's shoes in a year's time?