Bears

Will Devin Hester be the next Bears legend to become a Hall of Famer?

Will Devin Hester be the next Bears legend to become a Hall of Famer?

Five of the Bears’ six living Hall of Famers were in attendance for this weekend’s Bears100 Celebration in Rosemont (only Brian Urlacher, who dropped out at the last second due to some self-reported digestive issues, was not present). Dick Butkus, Richard Dent, Dan Hampton, Mike Ditka, Gale Sayers and Mike Singletary brought with them to the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center decades of history, reams of All-Pro honors and, of course, five distinguished gold jackets. 

And then there’s Devin Hester. He won’t be eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame until 2022, but very well could become the seventh Bears player enshrined in Canton. 

That is, if he can buck a trend that’s existed ever since the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s doors opened in 1963: Special teamers rarely get in. Only three are Hall of Famers: Two kickers (Morten Andersen and Jan Stenerud) and one punter (Ray Guy). No player who’s primary talent was as a returner is a Hall of Fame. 

But consider Hester’s resume: More punt return touchdowns (14) than anyone in NFL history; 20 total non-offensive touchdowns, the most in NFL history; one of two players with five or more kick return and punt return touchdowns; the highest average yards per punt return among players with at least 300 punt returns in their career; and three first-team All-Pro seasons and four Pro Bowl appearances. Anyone who watched him play, too, know he passed the eye test. 

“We’re sitting here talking about the Bears and 100 years,” Hester said. “There were a lot of return players when you think about 100 years of football. To say that, at the end of my career, do I feel like I’m the best that ever did it when it comes to kickoff return, punt return? 

“Honestly, I do.”

It’s hard to argue with that. 

Hester received one of the loudest ovations from the packed crowd during Friday’s Bears100 opening ceremonies, dancing across the stage to “Crank Dat (Soulja Boy),” the song he used to vibe to before his electrifying kickoff returns at Soldier Field. 

Hester remains very much a beloved figure in Chicago, and is appreciative of the support he’s received for his Hall of Fame bid since retiring. 

“Every now and then I get blogs pop up on my phone about whether or not I’m Hall of Fame worthy,” Hester said. “You know, a lot of the blogs are more positive than negative. A lot of the writers feel as though the things I did on the field are Hall of Fame worthy for me.”

You’d be hard-pressed to find many people at the Bears100 Celebration this weekend who didn’t believe Hester deserved to go to Canton. We'll find out in a few years if that belief extends beyond the borders of Chicagoland, allowing the best return man in NFL history to take his place among the legends of the game. 

“For my career, I would say that would be the icing on the cake for me,” Hester said. “Every player that plays football wants to be one of the best to ever do it. You get into that Hall of Fame vote and you get to be in the Hall of Fame, you get to say you’re one of the best to ever play in the National Football League.”

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be


How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives.

The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. 

But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. 

It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview:

“First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective.

“In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.”

The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. 

And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. 

The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully.

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. 

The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. 

So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. 

The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). 

If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019. 

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Under Center Podcast: State of the Bears: Defense

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USA TODAY

Under Center Podcast: State of the Bears: Defense

JJ Stankevitz, Cam Ellis and Paul Aspan are back with their training camp preview of the Bears' defense, looking at if it's fair to expect this group to take a step back without Vic Fangio (2:00) or if it's possible to repeat as the league's No. 1 defense (10:00). Plus, the guys look at which players the Bears need to improve to remain one of the NFL's best defenses (15:15), debate if Leonard Floyd can be better (20:00) and look at the future of the defense as a salary cap crunch looms after 2019 (25:00). 

Listen to the full podcast here or via the embedded player below: