Big Ten

In or out of the NCAA tournament? Where every Big Ten team stands with one week left in the regular season

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USA TODAY

In or out of the NCAA tournament? Where every Big Ten team stands with one week left in the regular season

There's one week to go in the Big Ten regular season.

Thing is, though that means just two games apiece for the 14 teams, seemingly nothing has been determined yet. Just a game separates Purdue and Wisconsin at the top of the standings, and a trio of squads — Maryland, Minnesota and Michigan State — are tied for third place a game behind the the Badgers. Mathematically, any one of those five could win at least a share of the Big Ten title.

The picture isn't much clearer when it comes to the NCAA tournament. The teams that were locks a week ago are mired in losing stretches now, and teams that figured to be on the bubble are rising in the standings, creating an entirely new group of bubble teams.

This year has been a mediocre one for the conference, making it hard to peg which groups belong in the field of 68 or not. Seemingly, though, that's a national trend, and ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had seven Big Teams in his projection on Monday.

With one week left in the regular season, here's a team-by-team look at who it looks like will go dancing, who doesn't have a chance and who still might have some work to do.

Illinois Fighting Illini

In or out: Hard to say

John Groce's team is surging, blowing out Nebraska over the weekend to pick up its fourth win in its last five games. That stretch includes two wins over a stumbling Northwestern team, wins that are unfortunately losing heft as the Wildcats keep piling up late-season losses. But there's no doubting that the Illini are playing a much better brand of basketball lately, with defense powering wins. The last two Illinois opponents have scored fewer than 60 points. Playing better against the likes of Nebraska and Iowa won't mean much without a signature win in there. Wednesday night brings an opportunity against Michigan State. Win that one, and the Illini would suddenly — and miraculously, given a 3-8 start to conference play — be in the conversation for a spot in the Dance.

Indiana Hoosiers

In or out: Hard to say

For some reason, the Hoosiers have remained in the "will they or won't they" conversation despite a dreadful season. Saturday night's win over Northwestern stopped Indiana's five-game losing streak, but with the Cats mired in their own losing stretch — and blowing that game with a last-second foul — how impressive is that win, exactly? Indiana sticking on the NCAA tournament bubble despite its 6-10 conference record and current 10th-place standing is a little head-scratching, but it's hard also to completely discount the resume, which features those early season non-conference wins over Kansas and North Carolina. A win like those the rest of the way — like in Tuesday night's bout with rival Purdue — could crank the conversation up surrounding the Hoosiers' candidacy for a spot in the Dance.

Iowa Hawkeyes

In or out: Out

It was a brief flirtation with the NCAA tournament bubble for the Hawkeyes, but it looks like Fran McCaffery's young team will have to wait till next year. Maybe things change if Iowa deals yet another loss to Wisconsin on Thursday night. After all, the Hawkeyes already have wins over Purdue, Michigan and Maryland teams all seemingly destined for the Dance. But with a max 18 possible wins in the regular season, would that be enough to even start the conversation? After all, these selection-committee folks have a long memory (as evidenced by the fact that they're still talking about Indiana), and Iowa had that disastrous run during non-conference play where it dropped five of six. It would seem Hawkeyes' fans' eyes should be on next season's tournament.

Maryland Terrapins

In or out: In

Mark Turgeon's team is on a three-game losing streak after getting thumped good by Iowa over the weekend. But already with double-digit wins in the conference and a whopping 22 wins overall, it would seem nothing could knock the Terps out of the field of 68. That doesn't mean, of course, that their seed won't take a beating from this losing stretch, which has featured losses in five of their last seven games.

Michigan Wolverines

In or out: In

The Wolverines seemingly played their way into the Dance with a big win over Purdue on Saturday. Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the conference right now, a winner in five of its last six games. From flirting with disaster to a surefire lock, Michigan is a No. 8 seed in Lunardi's latest projection, and that number could go even higher if the Wolverines keep things going. The two games that remain on the regular-season schedule come on the road, where Michigan has won only twice this season. But those games are against a struggling Northwestern team and a beatable Nebraska team. If the Wolverines win both games, that's closing the season on a seven-out-of-eight run to produce an even more favorable Big Ten Tournament matchup. Talk about getting hot at the right time.

Michigan State Spartans

In or out: In

Much like their in-state rivals, a big win over the weekend figured to secure a tournament spot for the Spartans, who took care of business against a stumbling Wisconsin team on Sunday in East Lansing. A team that's found itself in that "last four in" discussion this season seems safe with a No. 9 seed in Lunardi's latest projection. A brutal non-conference season that featured five losses will stick in the memory of the committee, but since Sparty has picked up wins over Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and two over currently red-hot Minnesota. Freshmen Nick Ward, Miles Bridges and Cassius Winston are playing real well right now, and Michigan State has won four of its last five. Holding off Illinois on Wednesday night would do the Spartans a lot of good. A win this weekend over Maryland might lock things up.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

In or out: In

There's no Big Ten team hotter than the Gophers, who have won seven straight, a streak that includes wins over tourney-goers Maryland and Michigan. Minnesota's playing great on the offensive end and scoring a lot of points. More importantly it's redeeming a midseason five-game losing streak that had at least this observer questioning what all the fuss was about. Well, there's no questioning that anymore, and the resume looks terrific: a 12-1 non-conference record with a win over Arkansas and the only loss to Florida State, plus a potential top-four finish in the Big Ten with wins over Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan and Maryland. The cherry on top would be a win in the regular-season finale over rival Wisconsin. Oh, and given their current streaking, the Gophers might be the favorite heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

In or out: Out

Conference play started with such promise for the Huskers, who won their first three Big Ten games. But they've won just three Big Ten games since and at 6-10 are tied with three others in the second-to-last spot in the conference standings. Glynn Watson Jr. and Tai Webster have been good this year, but it'll be a third straight year without an NCAA tournament trip. But considering that Tim Miles-led appearance was the program's first since 1998, there's certainly no reason for Nebraska brass to have anything but full confidence in its head coach.

Northwestern Wildcats

In or out: Hard to say

Maybe I'm being an alarmist, but Northwestern's crash-and-burn finish to the regular season puts into question what was very recently lock status for the Wildcats. Chris Collins' crew was 7-2 in the Big Ten when Scottie Lindsey had to take a four-game absence with mono. Since, the Cats have lost five of seven — including two to Illinois — and can't do a thing at the offensive end. Saturday night's collapse at Indiana was the latest and most painful way Northwestern has lost during this recent stretch. The final two regular-season games come in Evanston, but they're against really good Michigan and Purdue teams. It's not difficult to envision the regular season ending in a four-game losing streak with losses in seven of nine. Would that be enough to kick Northwestern out of the field of 68? It remains to be seen. Lunardi still has the Cats at a No. 10 seed a week after assuring everyone they were a lock. If they keep losing — and what if that includes their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, too? — will he have to change his rosy outlook?

Ohio State Buckeyes

In or out: Out

The worst year of the Thad Matta Era is about to come to a merciful end. A 10-3 non-conference season with losses to UCLA and Virginia set the Buckeyes up for a potential tourney run, but they started league play with a four-game losing streak and never recovered, just last week snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over Wisconsin. There's a chance to end the season on a positive note with two winnable games left against Penn State and Indiana. That could dig Ohio State out of the bottom four and avoid the dreaded Wednesday games in the Big Ten Tournament. But certainly right now, nothing seems possible — short of an unexpected conference-tournament run to a championship — that would vault it into the Big Dance.

Penn State Nittany Lions

In or out: Out

There are a lot of reasons to be excited in Happy Valley, and it looks like 2018 is a real possibility for the program's first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011. It won't be 2017, though, as everyone can tell. But the play of Tony Carr and Lamar Stevens, not to mention plenty of other guys who aren't Philly freshmen, has to have people pleased with the direction Patrick Chambers is taking his program. Winnable games remain against Ohio State and Iowa, plus there's potential noise to be made in the Big Ten Tournament. It could all end up with just the second above-.500 finish of the Chambers Era.

Purdue Boilermakers

In or out: In

One of the most obvious locks in the conference, the Boilers will likely enter the Big Ten Tournament as the popular pick to win the whole thing, and they'll likely enter the NCAA tournament with the best chance of any Big Ten team to make the deepest run. That being said, not everything is perfect in West Lafayette. Purdue is coming off a weekend loss to Michigan, that after sweating out a midweek overtime win at Penn State. Both those games came away from home, and getting back to Mackey for Tuesday night's showdown with rival Indiana should be a positive for Matt Painter's bunch. The regular-season wraps against a stumbling Northwestern team in Evanston. There's no reason to doubt the Boilers will get an invite to the Big Dance, but already the selection committee's boxing out of the Big Ten from its top 16 a few weeks back looks prophetic.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

In or out: Out

Yes, Rutgers is still residing in the 14th spot in the Big Ten standings, but in the first year under new head coach Steve Pikiell, the Knights have certainly played better than their record indicates. That doesn't mean they'll upset Maryland or Illinois in this final week or that they won't finish with just two league wins. But if Pikiell's group can get just one more win this week or in the Big Ten Tournament, it will have doubled last season's win total.

Wisconsin Badgers

In or out: In

The Badgers are a lock, but if they want anything besides a first-round exit, they better figure out what the problem is and fix it fast. If Wisconsin hadn't racked up 21 wins by early February and if the Big Ten wasn't so mediocre this season, this recent stretch of four losses in five games would be looked upon as an epic collapse. Instead, Greg Gard's group is just one game back of first place in the conference standings and could still manage the Big Ten Tournament's No. 1 seed even with this stretch of poor play. Coming off back-to-back road losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, Wisconsin gets its shot at redemption Thursday night against Iowa before a big weekend bout with red-hot Minnesota. The Badgers don't have to worry about their NCAA tournament spot vanishing, but their AP top-25 ranking is about to disappear.

See how they stack up: Week 12 college football top 25 rankings

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USA TODAY

See how they stack up: Week 12 college football top 25 rankings

With Week 12 in the books, here’s my top 25:

1. Oklahoma (10-1)

Still the team with the best resume in the country, no one can compete with OU’s wins over TCU, Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter two coming away from Norman. Baker Mayfield might not be a choir boy, but he’s the best player in the nation.

2. Miami (10-0)

You might think that being down 28-14 to Virginia in the second half was cringe-worthy, but the Canes made up for things by storming back with 30 unanswered points. Now they finally have to go away from South Florida for the first time since almost losing to North Carolina last month.

3. Alabama (11-0)

Tide gonna roll. But this Cupcake Weekend in the SEC has got to stop. While teams in other conferences are slugging it out against rivals, Bama gets to take a day off against Mercer? It’s just not fair. Also, Bama’s schedule is so soft, there’s no way it deserves to be the No. 1 team in the country.

4. Georgia (10-1)

The Dawgs should wrap an 11-1 regular season this weekend against Georgia Tech. But the SEC title game presents a kind of no-win scenario: undefeated Alabama or Auburn, who throttled Georgia earlier this month.

5. Wisconsin (11-0)

You didn’t need Wisconsin to do what it did to Iowa and Michigan to prove it had one of the best defenses in the country — but that sure didn’t help. Stockpiling national love with those two wins, a win in the Big Ten title game figures to make the Badgers a Playoff lock.

6. Clemson (10-1)

Why’d Kelly Bryant have to go and get hurt for that Syracuse game? The Tigers would be No. 1 and the undisputed best team in the country. Still, though, a win over Miami in the ACC title game ought to get the champs back into the Playoff.

7. Auburn (9-2)

Great job pounding Louisiana-Monroe, Tigers. You shall not escape the wrath over Cupcake Weekend in the SEC. That dumb game aside, Auburn and Alabama will meet in a titanic Iron Bowl this weekend with a trip to the SEC title game on the line — and perhaps a Playoff spot, as well.

8. Ohio State (9-2)

Not that pummeling Illinois is any big deal, but the Buckeyes are still alive in this thing and look like a team capable of making some Playoff noise. First, Ohio State has to win The Game and then the Big Ten title game to knock out undefeated Wisconsin.

9. Notre Dame (9-2)

Out of the Playoff chase thanks to that loss at Miami, Notre Dame squeaked by Navy this past weekend. Hope a New Year’s Six bowl game is enough for the Irish. We know it’s not enough for those ND fans. So maybe join a conference? Just saying.

10. TCU (9-2)

The Frogs can still make their mark on the Playoff race, even if they can’t get in themselves. The Big 12 title game will almost surely be TCU’s attempt at revenge on Oklahoma. Unfortunately, if revenge does come, it will probably cannibalize the conference’s Playoff hopes, too.

11. Penn State (9-2)

Why Penn State gave up 44 points to Nebraska, I do not know. What I do know is that probably no one cared because Penn State is going to go down as the most inconsequential 10-2 team of all-time. Such a bummer considering the preseason expectations for both the team and Saquon Barkley.

12. USC (10-2)

Yeah, I guess there’s still a way for USC to make the Playoff, but it’s hard to imagine that madness unfolding, even in the oft-mad college football. The Trojans get the winner of the Apple Cup in the Pac-12 title game.

13. UCF (10-0)

Finally we get our much-anticipated UCF-USF showdown this weekend. Make it count, Knights. This is probably gonna be Scott Frost’s last regular-season game in Orlando.

14. Washington (9-2)

It’s hard to say who has the edge in the Apple Cup, but certainly the stakes are high, with the winner going off to play USC in the Pac-12 title game. Can either team make the Playoff? Well, probably not, no.

15. Washington State (9-2)

Is this it for Mike Leach on The Palouse? He could be a hot candidate this offseason and leave for perceived greener pastures. Winning the Apple Cup would go a long way toward making that happen.

16. Mississippi State (8-3)

A win in the Egg Bowl means a 9-3 regular season for the Bulldogs with their three losses coming against three top-10 teams.

17. Oklahoma State (8-3)

Poor Okie State has been so good all year and had two losses to the two best teams in its conference, and then it went and lost to K-State for some ridiculous reason. The Mullet deserved better in 2017.

18. Northwestern (8-3)

The Cats are the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, simple as that, with wins over Michigan State and Iowa and conference losses to Wisconsin and Penn State. As commendable an effort as you’ll find in a highly competitive league. Plus, Fitz’s team is on a six-game win streak that could end up extending to eight.

19. Stanford (8-3)

Already with a win over Washington, Stanford could close the regular season with two wins over top-10 teams in its final three games. Also Bryce Love is back in the groove after back-to-back 100-yard games.

20. Memphis (9-1)

The Tigers have lost just one game all season, to the best Group of Five team out there. Heck of a season by Memphis.

21. Michigan State (8-3)

A 17-7 win over Maryland couldn't have been the most exciting way for anyone to spend their weekend. Sparty's had a mighty fine season, though, considering how badly things went in 2016.

22. LSU (8-3)

The SEC has seemingly gotten increasingly better as the year has progressed, with LSU and Mississippi State making for a solid-enough middle tier. But remember when LSU lost to Troy? That wasn’t good.

23. South Florida (9-1)

If not for that loss to Houston, USF’s showdown with UCF this weekend would be for Group of Five supremacy. Even without that, though, this should be a highly entertaining affair.

24. Virginia Tech (8-3)

The Hokies have a chance to salvage their tumble at the close of the season with a win at Virginia. But given how well the Cavs played at Miami this past weekend, a VT win is no sure thing.

25. Iowa State (7-4)

I understand the math and all, but can't the Big 12 just suspend its rules and send Iowa State to the title game? We all want to see the OU-ISU rematch. Why are you preventing us from being happy, Big 12?

See how they stack up: Week 11 college football top 25 rankings

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USA TODAY

See how they stack up: Week 11 college football top 25 rankings

With Week 11 in the books, here’s my top 25:

1. Oklahoma (9-1)

The Sooners probably won’t be No. 1 in the Playoff rankings, as the committee will almost surely move Bama up a notch. But OU has an incredible resume, one much better than the Tide’s, with wins over Ohio State, TCU and Okie State. No one in the country can compete with those wins.

2. Miami (9-0)

The Canes are too legit to quit after pulverizing Notre Dame on Saturday night. That signature win teamed with the prior week’s win over Virginia Tech makes that near loss to lowly North Carolina seem like forever ago. Welcome to Miami, indeed.

3. Alabama (10-0)

A great win on Saturday night by the Tide in what seemed like their first actual game of the season. The schedule has been soft as silk, but now Auburn’s status as an SEC juggernaut makes the Iron Bowl a colossal clash.

4. Georgia (9-1)

Knocked off the top of the college football mountain, the Dawgs still deserve to be in the Playoff field, just a one-loss team with that one loss coming to another top team and that still-excellent win at Notre Dame. The resume’s still there, but now the SEC title game will be for all the marbles.

5. Wisconsin (10-0)

Bucky’s sitting pretty after making Iowa look like an FCS team on Saturday — especially impressive considering what Iowa did the week prior. Expect Michigan and Minnesota to provide decent enough challenges, but it seems like Wisconsin’s set up for a Big Ten title-game date with Ohio State.

6. Clemson (9-1)

Miami is the king of the ACC, but thankfully the ACC title game looks to be a Playoff play-in game between the Tigers and Canes. The champs still have as good a shot at this thing as anyone.

7. Auburn (8-2)

Two-loss Auburn in the Playoff? It’s not crazy at all after what the Tigers did to Georgia on Saturday, destroying the No. 1 team in the country and setting up what will be another titanic Iron Bowl meeting with Bama.

8. Notre Dame (8-2)

The Irish’s Playoff hopes sank like a ship in Biscayne Bay thanks to the demolition Miami dolled out on Saturday night. ND’s resume is still fine — two losses to two Playoff-caliber teams. But with no conference title to play for, a two-loss ND team might as well be a six-loss ND team.

9. Ohio State (8-2)

Guess who's still lurking in the Playoff race? It seemed Brutus was dead as could be after getting woodshedded by Iowa last weekend, but then Ohio State put a whooping on Michigan State and everyone’s ears perked up again. Appearing destined for the Big Ten title game, things could get interesting.

10. TCU (8-2)

The Frogs will most likely still get a crack at a Big 12 title — and revenge on the Sooners, who picked em apart on Saturday — but the Playoff might be out of the cards now.

11. Oklahoma State (8-2)

You know who’s still really good despite having losses to the two top teams in the Big 12? Okie State. That was some game between the Pokes and the ‘Clones on Saturday. If only the Mullet could be unleashed on the Playoff. Alas.

12. USC (9-2)

Dramatically overrated in the last batch of Playoff rankings, the Trojans now seem to be the cream of the unimpressive Pac-12 after Washington’s loss. All sorts of madness would have to occur in order for USC — or any Pac-12 team — to land in the final four.

13. Penn State (8-2)

Great job beating up on Rutgers this weekend, Penn State. Now what? With games against Nebraska and Maryland left, will any preseason favorite (outside Florida State, of course) get less attention down the stretch than the Lions?

14. UCF (9-0)

Central Florida is that Group of Five team this year. If it beats USF in the regular-season finale, people you know will be like, “Why shouldn’t UCF be in the Playoff?” And you’ll just have to give them a look and walk away.

15. Washington State (9-2)

Wazzu has to win one game and it’ll play USC for a Pac-12 title. Despite the lack of Playoff stakes, the Cougs winning a conference championship would be a pretty big deal.

16. Washington (8-2)

Of course, standing in Wazzu’s way is Washington, which tripped up against Stanford and could follow up last year’s Playoff appearance with absolutely nothing.

17. NC State (7-3)

The ACC and SEC seemed to have flipped roles overnight. The once-mediocre SEC now has three playoff-caliber teams and a couple other decent ones. The once-awesome ACC now has two of the best teams in the country and then … NC State.

18. Mississippi State (7-3)

The Bulldogs put up one heck of a fight against Bama on Saturday, and if it wasn’t for that ridiculous sequence of play-calling following Bama’s missed field goal, they might have won. Oh well.

19. LSU (7-3)

LSU beat Arkansas on Saturday, which isn’t a terribly difficult thing to do. 2017 will go down as a “what if” year for the Bayou Bengals. As in, what if they hadn’t lost to Troy?

20. Stanford (7-3)

Two of Stanford’s losses have come against ranked teams. It’s now beaten Washington and could beat Notre Dame in two weeks. It has one of the best running backs in America. So shouldn’t Stanford be better?

21. Memphis (8-1)

Since losing at UCF, Memphis has rolled everyone, winning five straight by an average of 47.8-27.2. Good job, Memphis.

22. Arizona (7-3)

The Wildcats are 7-3 this season and have scored at least 45 points in every one of those wins. That includes last weekend’s win over Oregon State, in which Khalil Tate ran for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Dude's good.

23. Northwestern (7-3)

Meow. The Cats are winners of five straight, even if their overtime streak came to an end. The quest for a 9-3 finish is on, with only Minnesota and lowly Illinois left on the regular-season schedule.

24. Michigan State (7-3)

Two losses in three weeks for Sparty, who got absolutely steamrolled by Ohio State this past weekend. Michigan State will likely be rooting for Michigan in The Game as it would figure to wrap its regular season with wins over Maryland and Rutgers.

25. West Virginia (7-3)

The ‘Neers have only lost to Virginia Tech, TCU and Okie State, which is not too bad. But that’s a couple losses too many in the high-flying Big 12.

Others receiving votes:

Virginia Tech (7-3)

Things have bottomed out for the Hokies, who have lost back-to-back road games to Miami and Georgia Tech after a 7-1 start. Without the loss to the Jackets, Virginia Tech’s resume would look real nice. But alas.

Iowa State (6-4)

There was almost another Attack of the ‘Clones this past weekend in a thriller with Okie State. But the Pokes came out on top, sending Iowa State to its fourth loss. That dream Big 12 title game featuring the ‘Clones? A fantasy. Sigh.

Michigan (8-2)

Michigan only has two losses, which means it has to be kinda good, right? Well, it’s lost its only two games against ranked teams and its best win is Florida, so … no, I guess not.

South Florida (8-1)

Way to beat UConn, South Florida.