Bulls: Whose arrows are up and down at All-Star break

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With a largely retread roster, but fresh front office leadership and a new head coach in Billy Donovan, the Bulls enter the All-Star break 16-18 and ninth in the Eastern Conference.Are they satisfied? Far from it. But that mark falls well ahead of most preseason prognostications to this point.Let’s take stock of where each player on the roster stands as the 72-game campaign approaches its midway point:

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Bulls whose imprint on this season has been limited to the point that any assessment would be incomplete or unfair:

Chandler Hutchison: A strong preseason inspired flecks of hope for his third year, but a bout with COVID-19 and poor standing in Billy Donovan’s rotation followed. Hutchison has missed the Bulls’ last 13 games for personal reasons.

Cristiano Felício: Flirted with minutes during Wendell Carter Jr.’s absence, but the final season of his four-year, $32 million contract has been in run-out-the-clock mode from the jump.

Devon Dotson: After surprisingly going undrafted, Dotson’s signing drew high praise. But on a team that’s guard rotation runs deep, he’s seen NBA game action for just 10 garbage time minutes. A solid spell for the Canton Charge in the G League bubble ended with averages of 13 points, 5.6 assists and 1.4 steals.

Adam Mokoka: Fills the Bulls’ second 2-way slot, along with Dotson. Has played just 42 spot minutes after exhibiting flashes his rookie year.

2/14

The Good: His first All-Star nod is well-deserved with career-best averages of 28.7 points (sixth in the NBA), 5.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists. His scoring has been efficient and multi-faceted. His playmaking has leapt a level as he regularly grapples with enormous defensive attention, his defensive activity and awareness continue to grow, and his outsized impact on the Bulls’ improved record place his success in a team context. Better: With his 26th birthday just around the corner, it’s a decent bet LaVine’s best is yet to come.

The Bad: While turnovers come with the territory of the offensive burden LaVine carries, he’s committed too many -- some carelessly, as he’ll admit, some while trying to make the right play under pressure. For all his improvements defensively, he’s not yet a consistent plus on that end.

The Stat That Stands Out: LaVine is shooting 67.2 percent in the restricted area (while leading guards with 7 such attempts per game), 46.3 percent from midrange and 43.5 percent from behind the arc -- 48.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s, 42.1 percent on pull-ups 3s (5.2 attempts per game). He has virtually no weaknesses as a scorer.

Arrow: Up As Up Can Be.

3/14

The Good: When on the floor, Markkanen, as Artūras Karnišovas recently said, was meeting preseason expectations while playing out the final season of his rookie contract. In 14 appearances, he's averaging a career-best 19.1 points, shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from 3-point range on high volume (7.2 attempts per game). Donovan likes his ability to eat minutes as the team’s de facto backup center, and with a shot diet that has increased from a down third season, Markkanen was thriving in a new, movement-based offense.

The Bad: Alas, “was” is the operative word. A spell on the COVID-19 protocol list for close contact with a positive teammate and a shoulder sprain suffered on Feb. 5 adds up to 20 missed games at the break.

When Markkanen returns, he’ll still have a fair amount to prove before entering restricted free agency this offseason. His rebounding average currently sits at a career-low 6.1 per game and his free-throw attempts have waned after a strong start in that department. With over three-quarters of his looks assisted upon, he still hasn’t proved much sustainable as a playmaker (he has 12 assists vs. 24 turnovers entering the break) or self-creator. If the torrid shooting endures, that all may matter little. But the sample is small for now.

The Stat That Stands Out: In 50 games in 2019-20, Markkanen scored 20 or more points 10 times. In 14 appearances this season, he’s already eclipsed 20 points on six occasions.

The Arrow: Up, But Static For Now.

4/14

The Good: Whether you think him the long-term answer at the position or not, White has dutifully embraced lead guard duties; and while there have been ups and downs, 34 games into Year 2, he has at least marginally improved in almost offensive category.

FG%: 39.4% ---> 42%

3P%: 35.4% ---> 35.4% (while adding almost a full 3-point attempt per night)

Rim FG%: 49% ---> 56%

eFG%: 47.8% ---> 50.4%

FT%: 79.1% ---> 89.6%

AST/TO: 1.61 ---> 2.14

All that while starting every game and bumping his minutes average from 25.8 to 33.2. The Bulls have done well to scheme White into a nice balance of on-ball playmaking and off-ball shot-hunting of late, leading to a solid stretch of play entering the break. He’s also been durable, the only Bull to appear in all of the team’s games since the start of last season.

The Bad: He’s struggled in a number of different defensive matchups -- a consistent culprit of the Bulls’ troubles navigating screens at the point of attack and fouling 3-point shooters. And while his volume and shooting percentages are ticking up for the most part, none are yet commensurate with an above-average starting point guard. He still has a ways to go to prove himself more “scorer” than just “shooter,” as Donovan has said, and the playmaking comes and goes. 

The Stat That Stands Out: White has always been a strong rebounder for his position. But his three points-rebounds double-doubles this season have been timely (the Bulls are 2-1 in those games), and is tied for 10th among guards in the NBA. With the Bulls at times undersized in the frontcourt, he’s leaned into attacking the glass.

The Arrow: Trending Up.

5/14

The Good: He’s averaging a career-high 12.3 points and the progression as a facilitator that was promised is coming along, as evidenced by his 2.3 assists per game. Carter remains a fundamentally strong defender, and though it’s still the worst on the team among regular rotation players, is averaging a career-low 4.3 personal fouls per 36 minutes. His importance was driven home by the Bulls hopelessness at the center spot during his 11-game injury absence.

The Bad: Like Markkanen, he got hurt just as he was catching his stride, missing 11 games with a quadriceps bruise. Though returned from that ailment nine games ago, Carter said just before the break his mobility still isn’t 100 percent back.

On the floor: No one should raise existential alarm bells because Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić enjoyed outbursts on his watch -- if career arcs were determined based on how bigs fared against those two this season, Rudy Gobert would be on the trade block -- but Carter’s undersized nature for a 5 has been unavoidable at times. Despite a career-high field goal percentage, his shooting has been inconsistent. Despite that assist total, there are plenty of growing pains embedded in his 1.9 turnovers per game. Donovan has routinely closed games with Thad Young over him at the center spot because of Young’s more advanced playmaking, though Carter contributed crucially down the stretch of the Bulls’ last win before All-Star.

The Stat That Stands Out: Through 34 games, Carter is shooting 35 percent from 3 and has already set a career-high mark for total 3s made in a season. Good. But his attempts have waned since the start of the year -- he went 3-for-5 in that nine-game post-injury run -- and that mark for total made 3s is seven. On the season, Carter is 3-for-5 (60 percent) on corner triples and 4-for-15 (26.7 percent) from above the break.

The Arrow: Trending Up.

6/14

The Good: The flashes are tantalizing, from the sneaky shot creation to the needle-thread assists to the defensive playmaking. On low volume, he’s shooting 39 percent from 3 (39.1 percent on catch-and-shoots, a whopping 57.1 percent from the corners). He’s taken gaudy defensive assignments from LeBron James to Giannis Antetokounmpo to Kawhi Leonard to Zion Williamson in stride, and filled in capably for Markkanen at the power forward spot during the latter’s latest injury absence. 

All of this with a lightning-quick turnaround from draft day (that featured no Summer League) and an abridged first NBA training camp and preseason. Donovan, Karnišovas and his teammates call him a sponge. He turns 20 in August, but his feel and demeanor belie his age.

The Bad: Bad is a strong word. But as Williams, Donovan and his teammates have bemoaned, he could afford to be more aggressive. Williams takes just 8.1 shots per game, eighth on the Bulls.

The Stat That Stands Out: Williams is shooting 42.4 percent on non-paint 2s this season, 44.9 percent on pull-up 2s. Art of the midrange!

The Arrow: Up. And Is Just Getting Started.

7/14

The Good: Just about everything. Young has been the Bulls’ second-best player all season, anchoring his minutes with masterful short-roll playmaking on offense, and active hands and positional savviness (with 13, he’s third in the NBA in charges drawn) on defense. 

Did you know Bulls players are shooting a collective 43.2 percent on 3s off passes from Young? Or that his 65.1 percent shooting on post ups is second in the NBA among those posting up more than twice per game? His averages of 12.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists (career-high) and 1.4 steals are coming in just 25.3 minutes. His veteran presence is aiding the development of LaVine, Carter and Williams, among others, in real time. And it’s easy to forget he missed all of preseason -- and the first four games of the regular season -- with a leg infection.

The Bad: That Donovan can’t run him 48 minutes every night. And his surge has planted him in trade rumors as the deadline approaches. If those were to come to fruition, it would be a death knell to the Bulls’ playoff hopes.

The Stat That Stands Out: Since Young debuted on Dec. 31, 2020...

Bulls with Zach LaVine and Young on the floor: 121.3 offensive rating, 112.7 defensive rating, +8.6 net rating

Bulls with LaVine on and Young off: 107.1 offensive rating, 116.6 defensive rating, -9.5 net rating

All of which is to say, Young has been integral to the Bulls’ relative success, but especially for LaVine as a release valve to pass to out of double-teams.

The Arrow: To The Moon.

8/14

The Good: In Year 11, the 34-year-old is averaging the most minutes of his NBA career (28.4), and doing a bit of everything. He runs headlong into marquee perimeter defensive assignments -- and claws around screens with tact his teammates can learn from. He makes open triples. By all accounts, he’s a sage behind the scenes. And since assuming Markkanen’s slot in the starting lineup (we’ll count the Feb. 10 game Donovan meant to start him), the Bulls are 7-4.

The Bad: The 3-point shooting has been a bit streaky. After canning 40 percent from deep through the season’s first 17 games, Temple endured a 2-for-23 stretch from Feb. 1 to 8 (five games). Then: An 11-for-22 spurt from Feb. 10 to 22 (seven games). He made just 1 of 10 in his final four appearances before All-Star.

But overall, Temple’s 34.4 percent success rate from 3-point range is on par with his 34.7 percent career mark. He’s made some big ones, and is 38.3 percent on NBA.com-defined “wide open” tries.

The Stat That Stands Out: That the Bulls signed Temple for a portion of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($4.8 million) feels a heist for all he brings.

The Arrow: Up.

9/14

The Good: Porter deftly oscillated between a reserve and starting role to start the season, providing 40 percent 3-point shooting and solid rebounding at both forward slots through 16 appearances. He’s been often cited by teammates and Donovan as part of a steady, impactful trio of veterans along with Young and Temple.

The Bad: But it was too good to be true. A tweaked back on Jan. 8 led to the team holding him out the second night of back-to-backs for a few weeks. Now, Porter hasn’t played since Feb. 1 with lower back spasms, and, though Donovan has preached progress in his recovery, remains without a timetable to return entering the break.

The Stat That Stands Out: Porter has appeared in 45 of a possible 127 games since being traded to the Bulls in February 2019.

The Arrow: Down.

10/14

The Good: His graceful acceptance of a reserve role behind White has carried from last season to this one. Averaging 4.4 assists in 20.7 minutes per game, he’s dishing dimes at the highest rate of his career. On scaled-back volume, his shooting (48.7 percent from 3, 50 percent on catch-and-shoot triples) has ballooned following a down year in that department. And the subtleties of Satoranský’s game -- picking out cutters, organizing offensive sets, staying attached defensively, sterling two-man chemistry with Thad Young -- are contributing to world-beating reserve units.

The Bad: Satoranský had the rare misfortune of spending two stints on the COVID-19 protocol list -- once for close contact during the preseason, and once for a positive test that cost him 10 regular-season games. When he’s been available, he hasn’t done much that warrants critique.

The Stat That Stands Out: Zach LaVine has shared the court with 10 Bulls players for more than 100 minutes this season. Of that group, lineups featuring Satoranský as his primary partner own the best net rating, out-scoring opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions (123.3 offensive rating, 110.2 defensive). The two seem to connect on a backdoor, baseline cut at least once a night, no doubt a factor in LaVine’s mind-bending mark of 1.56 points per possession on cuts (a play type in which he is shooting 23-for-28, 82.1 percent).

The Arrow: Up.

11/14

The Good: Maligned for mystifying reasons in 2019-20, Valentine is firmly in Donovan’s rotation, overcoming a hamstring injury that held him out of training camp and the preseason to make an impression. His playmaking and outside shooting have at times provided a spark. 4.1 rebounds per game in just 19.7 minutes is a strong rate for a wing.

The Bad: He’s 26.1 percent from 3-point range in his last 10 games to drag him to 34.8 percent for the season after a strong start. There have been some notable decision-making lapses.

The Stat That Stands Out: Valentine is fourth on the Bulls in field goal attempts per 36 minutes (15.1) and creeping up on Coby White (15.3) and Lauri Markkanen (15.6) in front of him.

The Arrow: Depends On The Night, But On The Whole: Up.

12/14

The Good: Gafford started his second season strong in a spark plug reserve role, especially during the early-season time Markkanen missed. His rim-rattling dunks and hellacious blocked shots at one point even sparked a segment of Bulls fans to call for him to supplant Carter in the starting lineup.

The Bad: But thrust into that exact role during Carter’s absence, Gafford struggled with foul-happiness on the defensive end and advanced playmaking responsibilities on the offensive side. He’s fallen behind Kornet in the rotation since.

The Stat That Stands Out: Gafford made the longest shot of his career on Feb. 8 against the Washington Wizards, an 18-foot jumper. He is shooting 76.6 percent inside three feet this season.

The Arrow: Down.

13/14

The Good: Arcidiacono has cracked Donovan’s rotation and provided key minutes on multiple occasions. When he hasn’t, the Bulls coach has consistently praised his energy on the bench, and it’s true: Even from the media’s distant viewing platform in a socially-distanced season, Arcidiacono is routinely the first up to celebrate in-game Bulls successes.

The Bad: Hard to nitpick, given Arcidiacono’s limited role. But if forced to choose: Arcidiacono’s 34.4 percent success rate from 3-point range falls below his career mark of 37.1 percent (though he’s taken just 32 total attempts).

The Stat That Stands Out: Long lauded for his ball security, Arciaicono’s 5.75 assist-to-turnover ratio (23 assists, 4 turnovers) ranks first on the Bulls by acres.

The Arrow: Up… In Your Jersey, Trying To Poke The Ball Free.

14/14

The Good: As mentioned, Kornet has unseated Gafford for backup center minutes unoccupied by Young -- Donovan says, for his outside shooting and the manner in which that stretches opposing defenses. That wasn’t on display early in the season, but in his final two outings before the break, Kornet made 5 of 8 attempts from long range before missing the Pelicans game for personal reasons.

The Bad: He started the season 1-for-14 from distance, and figures to be the odd man out of the rotation when Markkanen returns.

The Stat That Stands Out: Entering the Bulls’ Feb. 26 matchup against the Phoenix Suns, Kornet had scored 9 points and blocked 3 shots all season. In that game alone, he posted 11 points and 3 blocks, and raised his 3-point percentage by 15.1 percentage points by going 3-for-4 from deep -- all those makes coming in a span of less than two minutes in the third quarter.

Arrow: Neutral.

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