How Lauri Markkanen can salvage a down season in Bulls' final 20 games

Share

There are 20 games remaining in Lauri Markkanen’s third season, and he has much to prove. The Bulls’ cornerstone returned from a 15-game, pelvis-injury-induced absence Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves to encouraging results, scoring 13 points and nabbing four rebounds on 6-for-10 shooting (1-for-4 from deep) in an intentionally limited 21 minutes of action.

The Bulls dropped to 21-41 with a 115-108 loss to the now 19-42 ’Wolves (sans Karl-Anthony Towns) in the game, but that’s hardly the point. Down the stretch of this misbegotten third rebuilding season, the impetus must be on individual progression — wins and losses be damned. 

All eyes will be on Markkanen in that respect. In 46 games prior to his six-week absence, he’d regressed in almost every conceivable aspect relative to his rookie and sophomore campaigns, averaging career-lows in points (15) rebounds (6.4) field goal attempts (11.9), and shooting career-worsts from the field, 3-point range, and the charity stripe. All that in hardly more minutes (30.3 per game) than his rookie year.

Nagging injuries, adjusting to the team’s new offensive system and variant shooting streaks all factored into those figures. Nevertheless, they’re discouraging for a player pegged early in his career as a foundational piece in a promising young core. These last 20 games are a chance to marginally un-muddy that slate (if not clean it entirely) and offer a launching pad for next year — a crucial one for Markkanen, as he becomes extension-eligible in July and could hit restricted free agency in the summer of 2021.

“Physically I feel better now,” Markkanen said at a recent practice. "I think [the time off] was good for me. And I’m ready to go."

This chunk of the NBA calendar can be ripe for misguidance (see: Markkanen’s February of 2019), but that doesn’t mean we as fans or analysts should tune this stretch of this season out entirely. With all that said, here are a few things to watch from Markkanen in these last 20 games… His ‘year three-and-a-half’ if you will:

Can Markkanen gel with the Bulls’ core? Will they get a chance?

The single most important thing for the Bulls to hone in on down the stretch is getting their core four of Zach LaVine, Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Coby White as many reps together as possible.

But even as dinged up guys trickle back into the rotation, this remains a tricky proposition. LaVine has missed the team’s past two games with a quad strain and estimated on Tuesday he’d miss ‘about a week.’ Carter’s minutes total increased for the third game in a row against Minnesota, but he still doesn’t look himself — conditioning-wise or moving on his previously sprained right ankle. Markkanen began on a minutes restriction that will likely persist for his first few games back. Twenty games is a tight time-frame for the Bulls to get all their ducks healthy and in a line.

The good news is Markkanen appeared to be moving fluidly enough in his 21 minutes against Minnesota and said recently he’s as close to 100 percent — physically — as he’s been all season. As soon as possible, it’s imperative to up his reps in two-man actions with LaVine and White. Markkanen’s pick-and-roll frequency and efficiency are both down markedly from his second year, but the specter of him as a threat on the pop and roll remains tantalizing. And though neither LaVine nor White have the proven chops of overly-efficient creators in PnR (yet), what time better than now to try it out?

According to Cleaning the Glass, the aforementioned core four have shared the court for only 254 possessions this season (much of that has to do with White coming off the bench, which isn’t changing). Add Otto Porter Jr. to make it a five-man grouping, and that number dips to just five possessions. That sample size must grow down the stretch, and it will be important to watch how Markkanen meshes, given the expectation of him blossoming into a secondary scorer to pair with LaVine in the long-term.

Being 'more than a spot up shooter'

Many have criticized the Bulls’ new-look, midrange-averse, 3-point-laden offensive system as restrictive to Markkanen. There’s some truth in that, though some blame lies with Markkanen, as well. Whatever blend of accountability you choose to dole out, the result is a tendency profile more indicative of a deferential, spot-up specialist than the agile, multi-faceted unicorn Markkanen has flashed the ability to be in the past.

Play Type 2018-19 Freq. 2019-20 Freq. 2018-19 points per play 2019-20 points per play
Handoff 4.7% 2.4% 0.91 0.82
PnR Roll Man 16.6% 15.6% 1.20 0.96
Spot Up 28.8% 31.1% 1.06 0.94
Off Screen 6.7% 9.9% 0.73 0.94
Cut 4.2% 6.5% 1.4 1.15

 

Table via NBA Stats

Markkanen’s drives per game have also dipped from six per game to 4.2, with his field goal percentage on such plays dropping from 46.7% to 41.4% from year two to year three. That 4.2 drives per game mark sandwiches him between Frank Ntilikina and Seth Curry in NBA.com's database

And famously, 53.2% of Markkanen’s shots have come from 3-point range this season, by far the highest of his career. Ideally, that part of his game would be complementary — especially given the adverse effects playing off-ball and away from the rim for long stretches can have on morale.

That’s why his first game back should be so encouraging. Four of Markkanen’s 10 attempts were 3-pointers, and he made just one, yet he was still able to stay engaged and impact the game offensively by staying on the move and attacking mismatches.

“Just that I can be aggressive and get to do multiple things and not be a spot-up shooter,” Markkanen told reporters in Minnesota when asked his goals for the stretch run. Read into that what you will.

Steady opportunity

But of course, everything enumerated above is moot if the consistent opportunity isn’t presented for — and seized by — Markkanen. As mentioned, Markkanen is currently averaging just 0.4 minutes more than his rookie season (and 2.2 less than his second), and his usage rate is at a career-low of 21.2%.

Raw minutes totals won’t be worth evaluating in the immediate future, given that Markkanen will be on a restriction until further notice. But the manner in which he’s deployed game-to-game will be worth watching. Who is Markkanen on the floor with? Will he be trusted to shoulder the load of staggered, reserve-heavy units offensively? Will the Bulls run plays designed specifically for him? How long will his spurts be and how spaced out will his rest be?

The answers to those questions have been inconsistent to this point in the season, especially the last. Markkanen has, too. The first steps towards course-correction begin now.

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of your teams and stream the Bulls easily on your device.

Contact Us