Why White could be X factor in Bulls-Bucks series

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The odds are stacked against the Chicago Bulls in their first-round playoff matchup with the Bucks. Not only did the Bulls drop all four regular-season meet-ups with Milwaukee, they have lost 16 of the last 17 matchups against their cross-interstate rival.

But there is a player — not named DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine or Nikola Vučević — that, if sharp, could prove an X factor. If not in pulling a colossal series upset, at least in keeping the proceedings competitive.

That player is Coby White.

There aren’t many NBA teams White fared worse against this season than the Bucks. Across four matchups, the Bulls guard shot 27.5 percent from the field and an even paltrier 5-for-26 from 3-point range, averaging 7 points per game. That’s well below his season average of 12.7 points, which he accrued using career-high shooting splits from the field (43.3 percent) and 3-point range (38.5 percent).

“I just didn't hit shots,” White said after the Bulls’ Wednesday morning practice, specifically in reference to his struggles against the Bucks. “I got a lot of open shots. They're a heavy-shift team. They help a lot. I just gotta knock them down, at the end of the day. I don't count it towards anything, I just didn't hit shots against them.”

Therein lies the key. When White references the Bucks’ help-happiness, he is alluding to their schematic emphasis on packing the paint to stonewall opponent drives. It’s a strategy that has helped Milwaukee develop one of the league’s stingiest interior defenses during Mike Budenholzer’s tenure, and figures to divert increased attention to the downhill attacks of DeRozan and LaVine.

It also presents an opportunity.

The Bucks’ commitment to defending the rim has, for years, resulted in allowing opponents a high volume of opponent 3-point attempts. This season, Bucks opponents averaged 40.6 3-point attempts per game, by far the most in the league. In three of Budenholzer’s four seasons, they’ve ranked 30th in that category. In the other, they were 28th.

This is not an area, on paper, the Bulls are well-equipped to exploit. Lonzo Ball, the team’s best 3-point shooter, has already been ruled out for the series. The Bulls shot a combined 30 percent from deep in the regular-season Bucks series. And despite shooting a scorching overall percentage early in the season, the Bulls were the league's lowest-volume 3-point shooting team all year and connected on just 34.8 percent of their long-range attempts in 23 post-All-Star break games, a bottom-10 mark.

Whether you chalk the latter dynamic up to natural regression, Ball’s absence, the schedule toughening, or some combination of the three, it’s a problem in this matchup. White finished a generally strong third season with a brutal stretch-run slump, shooting 35.9 percent from the field in his final 11 appearances. That sample featured two lopsided losses to Milwaukee. At one point, he airmailed 22 of 24 3-point attempts over a four-game span. 

But White also shot 40.1 percent from 3-point range on 5.9 attempts per game before the All-Star break and has proven potent enough in his NBA career to catch fire at a moment’s notice. That shotmaking provides the potential to swing games in a way not many Bulls players can, so long as his decision-making and defense are good enough to keep him on the court.

“You always need another guy that can make a play and can make a shot. Clearly this time of year with the level of players that Milwaukee has, right, you're not guarding Giannis (Antetokounmpo) with one player or (Khris) Middleton with one player or (Jrue) Holiday with one player. The reason they're (the Bucks) good is because they're gonna move the ball, share the ball and find open people,” said Bulls coach Billy Donovan. “Those guys get a lot of attention, just like Vooch, Zach and DeMar get a lot of attention. So having a guy like Coby to be able to play on that second side and get some opportunities would be really helpful.”

Cashing in those opportunities would go a long way toward alleviating defensive pressure directed toward DeRozan, LaVine and Vučević, and give the Bulls' stars space to operate. 

But as Donovan pointed out, that expands beyond spot-up shooting. The Bucks compensate for allowing as many 3s as they do by rotating hard and using their length to contest. Those close-outs could open up driving lanes if the Bulls are ready to exploit them — and that means all of the team’s ancillary offensive options, not just White.

“Not only me, but for everyone else. AC (Alex Caruso), Ayo (Dosunmu), Pat (Williams),” White said. “For all of us, we're gonna get opportunities to have open looks and we just gotta take advantage of it.”

That might be the Bulls’ best hope.

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