Ready or not, here they come: With a win over the Magic tonight, the Bulls could move into a tie for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Exciting stuff. The game tips off at 6 p.m. on NBC Sports Chicago — until then, here's what to watch for:
Magic’s last five games (1-4)
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Dec. 20 — L at Trail Blazers: 118-103
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Dec. 18 — L at Nuggets: 113-104
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Dec. 17 — L at Jazz: 109-102
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Dec. 15 — W at Pelicans: 130-119
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Dec. 13 — L at Rockets: 130-107
Storyline(s) to watch
This is a matchup between two exceptionally well-matched groups, at least in output. As my colleague K.C. Johnson alluded to today, these teams are closely aligned in their point differentials (Magic -1.8, Bulls -1.3), offensive rating (Magic 105, Bulls 103.7) and defensive rating (Magic 107.2, Bulls 105.1). Orlando enters play 12-17, the Bulls 12-19.
In profile, though, there are interesting contrasts between the two. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Magic put up the fifth-highest percentage of their shots from mid-range (35%), the eighth-least from 3-point range (32.2%) and the fifth-least at the rim (32.7%). The Bulls, famously, have effectively eschewed mid-range looks — 23.6% of their shots come from there, 25th in the league — in favor of rim attempts (39.5%, fourth) and long-range chucks (36.9%, 10th).
Where they come back together: Both teams are largely inefficient within their respective offensive gameplans, ranking 27th (Bulls) and 28th (Magic) in Cleaning the Glass’ eFG% calculations. Defensively, both force a ton of turnovers and are effective in transition. All of this is to say, the aesthetics of this game might be jarring, but if the Magic stick to their standard shot profile, it could play well into the Bulls’ aggressive defensive strategy.
NBA
And the brass tax, of course, is that a Bulls win tonight would move them into a tie with the Magic for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are just off a four-game road trip, but will be well-rested (they haven’t played since Dec. 20), while the Bulls are closing out a four-game out-of-town swing of their own.
Player to watch: Evan Fournier
We’ll get to the Magic’s boisterous big-man rotation in the next section, so it’s worthwhile to profile Fournier here. He is the Magic’s highest-usage player and preeminent ballhandler, after all, and with Nikola Vucevic back from injury (plus a host of hard-screening bigs around him), Fournier is a dangerous proposition in the pick-and-roll, as well as off-the-catch and one-on-one. The man is just crafty:
He’s the Magic's leading scorer (19.6 ppg) and is hitting 42.3% of his 3-pointers on 6.2 attempts per game this season (41.2% on pull-ups) on a team without much in the way of plus-shooting. He stumbled on the Magic’s most recent road trip, averaging only 16 points and shooting 26.9% from deep, but could be due for a breakout with fresher legs tonight. For what it’s worth: Kris Dunn will in all likelihood take lead duties on Fournier, and the way he’s playing right now, the Bulls like their end of a Dunn matchup against most any guard or wing in the league (though Fournier averages only 1.9 turnovers per game).
Matchup to watch: Rebounding
One area the Magic figure to have a substantial advantage in is the boards. Between Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac, Vucevic, Khem Birch and Aaron Gordon, Orlando currently trots out five players listed at 6-foot-8 or above in their regular rotation (and Fournier is 6-foot-7). Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate (24.1%). Given the Bulls’ struggles at times in this department, it would be unsurprising if the Magic put a strain on their guard-heavy lineups tonight.
The rub: The Magic shoot an alarmingly paltry 59.2% (26th) at the rim and rank 29th in the NBA in points per play (per 100 possessions) on putback plays (98.1), according to Cleaning the Glass. The Bulls dominated the glass Saturday night against the Pistons, winning the rebound margin 46-29, and tallied 14 second-chance points, though it should be noted the Pistons were without Blake Griffin and on the second night of a road-home back-to-back.
If the Bulls endure an off-shooting night (plausible, given the length Orlando will throw at them), this is an area that could swing the energy and tempo of the game. All eyes will be on Jim Boylen’s deployment of his four-big rotation of Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., Thad Young and Daniel Gafford, especially if foul trouble becomes a theme.
Trends to watch:
- Coby turnaround?: Entering play Saturday, Coby White’s shooting splits for the month of December were 29.3/31/77.8. He went 5-for-7 from deep against the Pistons. Shots falling for him raises the ceiling of the Bulls’ bench (and team) substantially.
- LaVine building All-Star case: Zach LaVine is averaging 37.8 minutes, 31.8 points and 3.8 assists per game on 48.8% field goal shooting (39.4% from three) in his last four games, dating back to him closing out the Clippers in Chicago on Dec. 14. And that’s on 21 field goal attempts, 8.3 3-point attempts and 9.3 free throw attempts per contest. All-Star voting kicks off this week, and LaVine is building a case.
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The worst is yet to come: Per Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, the Bulls have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, but their odds of the eighth seed have climbed to 12.2%. Games such as this and their matchup with the Hawks in Chicago on Saturday need to be wins to keep the playoff dream alive, even if we’re not even halfway through the season yet.
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Shoutout Markelle Fultz: After enduring the most bizarre start to a highly-touted player's career in recent memory, Fultz has found his footing in Orlando. He's playing 26 minutes a night, averaging 11.6 points and 4.1 rebounds for the Magic, and making highlight-reel plays on the reg. Hard not to be happy for him.
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