What to watch for: Without Trae Young, Hawks a favorable matchup for Bulls

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Dec 11, 2019; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen (24) celebrates with forward Thaddeus Young (21) after being fouled against Atlanta Hawks guard Allen Crabbe (33) in the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulls have an opportunity to sweep their season series against a depleted Atlanta Hawks squad when the two square off at the United Center, Saturday night. Here’s what to watch for:

Hawks’ last five games (0-5)

  • Dec. 27 — L vs. Bucks: 112-86

  • Dec. 23 — L at Cavaliers: 121-118

  • Dec. 21 — L at Nets: 122-112

  • Dec. 19 — L vs. Jazz: 111-106

  • Dec. 17 — L at Knicks: 143-120

Storyline(s) to watch

The Hawks are in a bad way right now. They enter play with the league’s worst record (6-26), 29th-rated offense (103.6 points per 100), 28th-rated defense (113.4 points per 100) and longest losing streak (nine games). Worse, Trae Young left their Friday night matchup against the Bucks with an apparent ankle injury and won’t travel with the team to Chicago.

In these teams’ first two meetings of the season, the Bulls (and Kris Dunn, specifically) have bottled Young up, holding him to averages of 12 points and 5.5 turnovers per game on just 26.9% shooting (1-for-14 from 3-point range). Without him, and on the second night of a home-road back-to-back, it’s unclear where consistent shot-creation and shooting will come from for Atlanta.

The Bulls, for their part, should have fresh legs — they haven’t played since Dec. 23 — and have beaten the Hawks by an average of 27 points in their two meetings this year. If this isn’t an easy victory, something will have gone wrong.

Player to watch: John Collins

The Hawks did two games ago return promising third-year forward John Collins from a 25-game suspension, and on his first night back against the Cavaliers, he tallied 27 points and 10 rebounds on 12-for-20 shooting. Friday night against the Bucks he only notched 9 points in a blowout loss, but did snare 16 rebounds. 

Collins’ length, fluid handle and emerging jump shot make him a dangerous proposition for a wing-strapped Bulls defense. He’s got bounce, too, and profiles as an elite rebounder (in limited action this season, he has a more-than-solid 20.1% defensive rebounding rate, per Cleaning the Glass). Bulls fans will remember him dropping 35 points on 14-for-16 shooting (4-for-4 from 3-point range) the last time he faced them on Jan. 23 of last season.

Losing Young obviously hinders every aspect of the Hawks’ offensive attack, and the Young-Collins pick-and-roll is arguably the most lethal weapon in their arsenal. Still, don’t be surprised if he gives the hosts fits tonight — in transition and on the glass.

Matchup to watch: Bulls’ surging defense vs. a Young-less Hawks offense

As previously set out, the Hawks have been one of the worst teams in the league in every facet this season, even with Young enjoying a breakout campaign. He’s currently the fifth-leading per game scorer (28.5 ppg) and assist-man (8.3 apg) in the NBA, is hitting 36.8% of his 3-pointers on 9.3 attempts per contest and ranks sixth in the league in ESPN's offensive RPM (real plus-minus) metric

With Young off the floor this season, the Hawks’ offense sinks to confoundingly low levels. Per NBA.com, in 469 minutes without Young this season, the Hawks score at a rate of 92.1 points per 100 possessions, sport a 1.13 Assist/Turnover ratio and shoot only 40.4% from the field (27.4% from three). Those are mind-bending figures and there are countless more, but you get the picture. He’s the catalyst for everything they do offensively (34.5% usage rate), and replacing him won’t be easy.

The Hawks will likely attempt to do so by running much of their offense through Collins, sliding one of their bench ballhandlers (i.e. Deandre’ Bembry, Evan Turner) up in the rotation and ramping up minutes for wings young and elder alike (Cam Reddish, Vince Carter, Allen Crabbe, etc). Any way you slice it, this is a team that runs (7th in the NBA in PACE), chucks (11th in 3PA/g, but last in 3P%) and turns the ball over often (17 per game, last in the NBA).

Without their most dynamic offensive player, those tendencies represent a juicy matchup for a Bulls defense that forces more turnovers per game than anyone in the league and boasts a 101.4 defensive rating (2nd in the NBA) in the month of December. 

Other nuggets to monitor

  • Tonight is Vince Carter’s last game in Chicago, and with the Young injury, it’s plausible he sees increased run. Read our K.C. Johnson on Carter's impact, then tune in for some Vinsanity feels. 

  • After this game, the Bulls face the Bucks on Dec. 30, then enter a grueling month of January that will feature 17 games in 31 days (nine against teams currently above .500). A blowout victory tonight would go a long way towards keeping the starters and key reserves fresh, moving forward.

  • Lauri Markkanen was sent home from Friday afternoon’s practice with a stomach illness. He’s officially listed as questionable for tonight — stay tuned for further updates.

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