Bears

Bears free agency analysis: Alshon Jeffery non-deal left an understandable void

Bears free agency analysis: Alshon Jeffery non-deal left an understandable void

This is the first in a series analyzing the Bears' decision-making during the 2017 free-agency period.

The overarching objective in free agency is to fill needs with established NFL players who upgrade at those need areas and remove desperation from draft preparations. For the most part through the opening hours of free agency 2017, the Bears managed to accomplish both, with only one significant might-have-been question/exception.
 
That situation is the Alshon Jeffery conundrum, with the oft-productive wide receiver taking a surprising one-year deal from the Philadelphia Eagles that tops out at $14 million if Jeffery reaches ambitious production targets plus a Pro Bowl, but only $9.75 million coming in the door. The result puts Jeffery alongside Terrelle Pryor as wideouts who dramatically overestimated what their market value, including what their existing teams (Bears, Browns) thought they were worth, and chose to position themselves (again) for a hoped-for career year in 2017.
 
Jeffery's departure takes a playmaker away from an offense that had precious few of them last season. But how much of a loss Jeffery represents, however, is problematic.
 
"Conundrum" was the word choice for a reason.
 
Coach John Fox has a saying placed on the wall of a Halas Hall corridor: "Ability is important. Dependability is crucial." And "dependability" was the crucial issue surrounding Jeffery, who played just two 16-game seasons among his first five, missed seven games with four different injuries in 2015 and then four last year with a four-game PED suspension incurred while in a franchise-tag season.

[VIVID SEATS: Buy Bears tickets right here!]
 
And casual analytics are cause for pause. Jeffery has 13 games of 100 or more yards and six more of 90-plus. The Bears are a combined 5-14 in those games. The Bears' quarterback issues explain some of the general problems of the team, and Jeffery can be excused as wanting a change.
 
Notably perhaps, the Bears have been only slightly worse off without Jeffery (6-11, .353 pct.) than with him (26-37, .413 pct.). This was not a Brian Urlacher factor-figure, or even a Jay Cutler one, where the win-loss rate dips precipitously with him sidelined.
 
Jeffery represents a loss. But it's also understandable that neither GM Ryan Pace and the Bears organization, nor the rest of the NFL, was willing to pony up for Jeffery or palpably lament missing on him.

"I wouldn't say I was disappointed, no," Pace said last week, acknowledging that an offer had been made. "Yeah, we talked to Alshon Jeffery. We did and it just didn't work out. But we're moving forward."
 
That moving-forward came in the persons of speed receivers Kendall Wright from Tennessee and Pittsburgh's Markus Wheaton. The roster already had receivers in the Jeffery physical template (Cameron Meredith, Kevin White) and frankly needed the speed more than the size.
 
Because the production and dependability did not warrant giving Jeffery a third straight prove-it year, let alone a long-term deal.

Another day, another reason why Bears won the Khalil Mack trade

mack_bears.jpg
USA TODAY

Another day, another reason why Bears won the Khalil Mack trade

Oh, now this is a doozy.

As if it wasn't obvious enough already, the Bears absolutely won the Khalil Mack trade over the Raiders. Not only did they acquire the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year, but they did so when the rival Green Bay Packers were also interested. Based on a recent revelation from Packers president Mark Murphy, the extent to which the Bears won the trade is greater than we may have realized. 

In an interview with 105.7 The FAN, Murphy revealed a unique reason as to why the Raiders chose the Bears over the Packers.

"Well the whole Khalil Mack thing. It's not that we didn't try," Murphy said on Thursday. "We were aggressive. We wanted to sign him. I think, ironically, the Raiders took the Bears offer because they thought they would be a better draft pick."

As it turned out, the Packers had a higher first-round pick (No. 12 overall) than the Bears (No. 24) in 2019. This very well could change in 2020, but for the time being, let's get this straight.

Not only did the Bears acquire one of the best (if not the best) defensive players in football, but:

-Their trade package was highlighted by what should be two late first round picks (assuming the Bears remain a playoff team in 2019), and
-Acquiring Mack kept him out of Green Bay.

Talk about absolutely winning a deal. In the end, the Bears have a three-time All-Pro (2015-16, 2018) pash rusher entering his age 28 season. The Raiders and Packers surely cannot say the same thing.

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of the Bears.

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be


How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives.

The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. 

But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. 

It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview:

“First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective.

“In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.”

The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. 

And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. 

The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully.

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. 

The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. 

So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. 

The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). 

If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019. 

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of the Bears.