Bears

With Bears injuries, time for Jay Cutler to create his own weapons

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With Bears injuries, time for Jay Cutler to create his own weapons

Saturday night in Cincinnati against the Bengals, Jay Cutler will have a chance to be Tom Brady. Or maybe Aaron Rodgers.

And the Bears need exactly that from him. It’s time.

Preseason doesn’t count, but the third game in particular can be a telling test kitchen (see: Bears at Seattle, 8/22/14). Cutler won’t ever be any sort of approximation of either Brady or Rodgers. No one will ever expect that after this many years. And the health issues at wide receiver provide a stern test for an offense committed to running the football against a defense that knows the Bears are offensively passing-challenged.

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But so much talk sprayed around over the past half-decade or so about how much Cutler needed more weapons. He got them and still didn’t win. And the assumption was always that he had to be given them.

By contrast, Brady and Rodgers were among the greats at creating their own from what they had. And with a growing list of injured Bears wide receivers who may or may not be ready by Week 1, that is precisely what the Bears need right now from their $126-million quarterback, with “right now” looking ahead to possible health problems in 2015.

Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are expected to be ready by Week 1. But it is entirely possible that Cutler could have a receiver group consisting of Josh Bellamy, Jeremy Kelley, Rashad Lawrence, Marc Mariani and Cameron Meredith.

John Fox and Adam Gase should demand, “Ok, ‘6,’ win with those. Period.”

Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte will be in his huddle. But the Bears and Cutler are to a point where the quarterback needs to find ways to win with the tools at hand - in this case, his wide receivers. And most of all, not give the football away, something he’s managed to avoid through wins over Miami and Indianapolis.

Cutler is being paid like Brady and Rodgers. The Bears are entitled to see a return on the investment. And a third preseason game is an exquisite opportunity for Cutler to show whether he’s learned anything, conceptually or technically, from Gase and QB coach Dowell Loggains.

The Brady Model

Brady won his first Super Bowl with his top two receivers standing 5-foot-10 (Troy Brown, David Patten). Brown, an eighth-round draft pick, didn’t become a starter until his eighth season and didn’t reach lone Pro Bowl until 2001 – the year Brady took over from Drew Bledsoe as the starter. Patten was a castoff from the Giants and Browns through his first four seasons before catching 51 passes in 2001.

Brady won his second Super Bowl, over Fox and the Carolina Panthers, with Brown, Deion Branch (5-foot-9) and David Givens (6-feet). No Patriot caught more than Branch’s 57 passes.

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What Brady didn’t do was throw interceptions, with an INT rate of 2.3 percent both years. Bill Belichick may indeed be among the great defensive minds of this era, but his defenses have had the advantage of a quarterback who let them stay off the field and not be forced to defend short fields after quarterback giveaways.

Cutler has only once in his career been that secure with his passes, and then only in 2011 when a superb season (2.2 percent) was derailed by his broken thumb after 10 games.

That was the year of Cutler’s lowest single-year completion percentage (58 percent) but the Bears were winning in large part because he wasn’t completing passes to wrong uniforms. And his top three wide receivers were Johnny Knox, Dane Sanzenbacher and Devin Hester. 

The Rodgers Model

When the Green Bay Packers got past the Bears on the way to winning the 2010 Super Bowl, they were doing with a roster that had 13 players on IR by mid-December, 16 by season’s end. Rodgers himself suffered two concussions and missed a game.

He also lost running back Ryan Grant, tight end Jermichael Finley, right tackle Mark Tauscher, and no Green Bay receiver or back started all 16 games with the exception of Greg Jennings.

Rodgers suffered through the second-highest interception rate of his seven seasons as a starter – and that was all of 2.3 percent, a huge boost for a defense that was so riddled with injuries that coordinator Dom Capers was forced to take certain calls out of his playbook.

It falls to Cutler more than any other individual Bear to find ways to solve issues involving the paucity of wide receivers, injuries and shaky play on the offensive line, even the questions around the defense.

For Cutler, it’s time to win with efficiency, ball control and what he’s got on hand. 

Three reasons why the Bears' offense should have success against the Patriots' defense

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USA Today Sports Images

Three reasons why the Bears' offense should have success against the Patriots' defense

Every team will try to scheme against what its opponent does best. Not every team does it as well as Bill Belichick consistently has in his Hall of Fame tenure as the coach of the New England Patriots. 
 
This is what Belichick is famous for, beyond the five Super Bowl trophies and historic partnership with Tom Brady. That thing your team’s offense does best? He’s going to take it away. 
 
That can create a mental challenge for an opposing coach during the week. Do you focus on doing something other than what your offense does best because Belichick is going to identify and scheme against it, or do you try to accentuate what you do best so it can’t be taken away? 
 
“That’s that whole chasing the cat’s tail thing,” Bears coach Matt Nagy said. “All of the sudden you start out-thinking to yourself, ‘What the heck?’ That’s the mystique, and that’s what they do. They’ve earned that over time because of the success they’ve had. 
 
“When you don’t go too crazy with that and balance it and control what you can control. Then in the end, win, lose or draw, no matter what, you at least feel good you approached it the right way, and you weren’t, ‘Oh shoot, I should have done this. Shoulda, coulda, woulda.’”
 
When Taylor Gabriel and the Atlanta Falcons faced the Patriots in Super Bowl LI, everybody on that team knew Belichick would do what he could to take Julio Jones out of the game. But that didn’t make preparations any easier. 
 
“We knew he was going to take away Julio, but we didn’t know how he was going to do it,” Gabriel said. “So it’s just just something you kind of have to adjust to when you get in the game.”
 
Jones only had four catches in that game, and the Falcons were able to quickly adjust to how he was taken away — though it wasn’t enough to keep them from a historic collapse and ultimate overtime loss. 
 
Tight end Dion Sims played New England eight times during his four years with the Miami Dolphins, and came away with a healthy respect for the scheme and the players on that defense. 
 
“They’re fundamentally sound, they got good coaching over there, a good staff,” Sims said. “You gotta be prepared because they come out and they play their ass off.” 
 
But what should give the Bears confidence they can mentally and physically beat New England’s defense?
 
1. The Patriots’ defense isn’t what it once was
 
The way Bears coaches and players have talked about New England’s defense this week has been with reverence and respect. But lately, the Patriots’ defense production hasn’t quite equalled its reputation. 
 
Maybe it started with Nagy’s Kansas City Chiefs launching 42 points and over 500 yards of offense against New England in 2017’s nationally-televised season opener. Maybe Super Bowl LII, in which the Philadelphia Eagles ripped off 41 points with a backup quarterback, was another turning point. Or maybe the Patriots’ 43-40 win over the Chiefs on Sunday night, which looked more like a Big 12 game than an NFL game, further chipped away at that mystique. 
 
New England’s defense heads to Chicago ranked 18th in points allowed (24.7) and has allowed 400 or more yards of offense in four of six games this year. They’re 19th in defensive DVOA, though Pro Football Focus’ grades do peg this group fourth, behind only the Bears, Rams and Eagles. 
 
What this defense does well is take the ball away, with eight interceptions and four fumble recoveries critical in propping up a defense that isn’t good on third down (44 percent conversion rate, 25th) or in the red zone (68 percent, 26th). But as long as the Bears' ball security is better than its two-turnovers-inside-the-five-yard-line showing in Miami on Sunday, an offense that scored 48 and 28 points in its last two games should be in good shape. 
 
2. Multiple weapons
 
How Belichick schemes against a Bears offense that’s been explosive and productive in its last two weeks will be fascinating to see on Sunday. Maybe it’ll be Tarik Cohen, who Belichick said is “a special player that you gotta know where he is at all times.” Maybe it’ll be making sure Taylor Gabriel doesn’t beat them deep (“The execution on that was like 99 out of 100,” Belichick said of Mitch Trubisky’s 54-yard deep ball to Gabriel against Miami). Or maybe it’ll be dropping seven or eight guys into coverage, spying Trubisky and forcing the second-year Bears quarterback to make good decisions and fit passes into tight windows. Or maybe it’ll be something else entirely. 
 
This goes back to the guessing game, though, and it’s one the Bears can’t allow themselves to play. 
 
“I think you can spend too much time on that,” Nagy said. “I look at that and I think I've said it before, it can be kind of like chasing the cat's tail. You've got to be careful of that and when you just start worrying about what you do — and of course here or there you might so something a little bit different — but if you just start doing things different because of one coach, now you've stopped worrying about just controlling what you can control and I haven't found too much success with that.”
 
The good news for the Bears, though, is they seem to have the multitude of weapons necessary to have success against a Belichick defense. Kansas City showed it on Sunday — when the Patriots took away Kelce, Kareem Hunt racked up 185 yards from scrimmage, while Tyreek Hill gouged New England for 142 yards on seven catches with three touchdowns.
 
So if the plan is to take away Cohen, that could lead to opportunities for Gabriel, or vice versa. Or if the plan is to drop seven or eight into coverage, that would give Jordan Howard an opportunity to carve out yards on the ground.  
 
“They utilize all their players, the backs, the tight ends, the receivers, the quarterback, they all have production, so if you take one away, they just go to the next guy, and that’s hard to defend,” Belichick said. “There are a lot of options on some of those plays, which guy is going to end up with the ball based on a quarterback’s decision, if it’s a check-with me type of play, bubbles and look passes and RPOs and things like that, it’s up to the quarterback to make the right decision and Trubisky’s done a good job of that. I think all those things, they keep getting better and they’re hard to defend.”
 
3. History repeating itself
 
In Nagy’s only meeting with New England as Kansas City’s offensive coordinator, his offense scored 42 points — and that’s a number that has resonated in the Bears’ locker room and practice fields this week.  
 
“You have to go into this game with confidence and know that we’re playing against a great group of guys who’ve been there, been to the Super Bowl and then they also have Tom Brady on the other side,” Sims said. “It’s important that we capitalize on everything and try to be mistake-free.” 
 
“What the defense is giving you is what the offense will take — what good offenses will do,” Gabriel said. “I feel like we have those type of minds up there in the booth and on the field with us to figure out what those guys are doing and how we want to attack it.”
 
The Bears’ offense is young, from the coach to offensive coordinator to most of the players that populate it. Beating New England, even if its defense isn’t what it used to be, would send a message around the league that the Bears are for real. Until the Patriots are dethroned in consecutive years, or even finish a season with fewer than, say, 12 wins, they’re still the Patriots.  
 
But while this team is young, it does have a handful of guys who’ve competed against New England on some of the NFL’s biggest stages. So expect guys like Gabriel, Burton and even Nagy to not allow this team to let facing the Patriots become daunting on Sunday. 
 
“It’s not difficult at all,” Gabriel said of avoiding thinking about that mystique. “Just like this team, we have the weapons to take advantage of those one-on-one matchups. I don’t care what defense you are, you’re going to have a one-on-one matchup somewhere unless you’re dropping everybody. So as long as you’re staying the pace and being confident in what you’re doing, I feel like we’ll be okay.” 

Bears return to Soldier Field as home underdogs against the Patriots

Bears return to Soldier Field as home underdogs against the Patriots

The Bears were getting used to life in the big chair. Chicago was favored in each of their last four games, but it all came crashing down at the hands of Brock Osweiler in overtime last week.

The Miami Dolphins pulled off the upset, and now the Bears return home to take on one of the best teams in the league.

Even if they had won in Miami, Chicago likely still would have been underdogs to the New England Patriots on Sunday, but as it stands, Bill Belichick and company are favored by three on most major sportsbooks, according to Vegas Insider.

The line initially opened at Patriots by 2.5, but it would seem that money placed on New England pushed the spread a little more in the Bears’ favor.

Vegas is expecting another higher-scoring game for both teams, with the over/under sitting at 49. Given that the Patriots have scored at least 38 points in each of their last three games, the Bears’ defense may have some trouble keeping this game low on the scoreboard.

In Week 6, home underdogs went 4-1 against the spread and 3-2 straight up. According to Bet America, home underdogs have covered in 20 of their 30 games this season, which bodes well for a Bears team facing a tough task at Soldier Field.