Bears

Here's how the Bears will finish 10-6 in 2016

Here's how the Bears will finish 10-6 in 2016

OK, let’s get this out of the way right now: 2016 Bears record, per “View from the Moon (VFTM),” will be 10-6.

Now, before going into specifics, if this sounds vaguely familiar, that would be because your humble and faithful narrator has posited a 10-6 mark for several of the past half-dozen Bears seasons, with good reason, and with some degree of reasonable accuracy, with extenuating circumstances.

(Those would include 2010, when the Bears won the NFC North at 11-5; the 2011 season when the Bears were 7-3 and pulling away when Jay Cutler broke his thumb; Lovie Smith’s 2012 season, when the Bears finished precisely 10-6; the second Marc Trestman 2014 year, when the Bears were near-universally expected to take the next step from their 8-8 first Trestman year; and last season, when the Bears reached 5-6 and were favored to win the next two before Robbie Gould’s surprise misses and the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Pernell McPhee were damaged).

But enough about the past, except to say that safe predictions between 7-9 and 9-7 are boring, like kissing your pillow good night.

The time-honored methodology behind VFTM analysis has three chief components.

1. Grading on a curve

VFTM begins with grading on a curve, not vapid assessments of whether the Bears are “good” or “bad.” Those don’t matter. What matters is whether the Bears have gained on their rivals, particularly the divisional ones, via free agency, trade and the draft, or those rivals slipping. Or both.

By unofficial measure, the Bears have made up ground on each of the three NFC North members that finished above them in 2015. Two starting linebackers, defensive lineman and tackle mean already the Bears are better at nearly 25 percent of their positions, not including Kevin White at one wide receiver and a healthier Jeffery at the other.

More significant: Five of the six Bears-NFC North games last season (all but Minnesota II, which followed the San Francisco and Washington demoralizers) were decided by one touchdown or less, and the combined margins of those five games totaled 14 points. Meaning: The Bears did not finish beyond the reach of the division.

2. Schedule-tracking

Finishing last in the division sets the Bears up with last-place finishers San Francisco and Tampa Bay in their only two games not set by NFL schedule formula. Both teams were in enough disarray to get their coaches fired.

Not only do the Bears draw those two bottom-feeders; they get the Bucs and 49ers at home, which cannot again be the problem it was for the Bears last year.

The Bears’ 2015 season came unhinged with those consecutive losses at home against seeming foils San Francisco and Washington, which took the Bears from the high of reaching 5-6 after a Thanksgiving Day win at Green Bay.

Those two games epitomized a colossal problem: winning at home. The Bears were a franchise-worst 1-7 at home, including L’s to all three NFC North rivals. That won’t happen again.

3. Intangibles

These are the miscellany that aren’t quantifiable numerically or with personnel moves. In this case, John Fox stands as most notable.

Fox improved the Carolina Panthers from one win in 2001 before he came, to seven in 2002, to 11 in 2003, his second year there. The Denver Broncos went from 4-12 in 2010, before Fox, to eight wins in 2011 to 13 wins in his second year with the Broncos. Based on Fox Math, teams improve by 4.5 from his year 1’s to year-2’s.

That would place the Bears at…10-6.

(There – that wasn’t so hard, was it?)

Why Leonard Floyd is the key to the Bears' defensive success

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USA Today Sports Images

Why Leonard Floyd is the key to the Bears' defensive success

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — For all the attention heaped on Roquan Smith in the last 48 hours, he’s not the most important player to determining the success of the Bears’ defense in 2018. 

Rightly, the Bears feel good about their depth at inside linebacker, especially now that the No. 8 overall pick is in the mix. Smith, Danny Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski being at the top of the depth chart is solid at worst; John Timu is entering fourth year in Vic Fangio’s defense, and rookie Joel Iyiegbuniwe has some promise. 

This isn’t to diminish the importance of Smith, who represents the biggest (and, arguably, only major) addition to the Bears’ defense made in the 2018 offseason. But if you’re looking for the guy whose performance will be the most critical to the success of this defense, look toward the last Georgia product the Bears took with a top-10 pick. 

Given the upside of Leonard Floyd and where the Bears stand at outside linebacker three and a half weeks before the start of the regular season, that’s your guy. And over the last few weeks, Floyd has practiced and played better and better, providing an encouraging sign for a guy the Bears are betting big on this year. 

“He’s feeling more comfortable,” Trevathan said. “So I’m just happy with the direction he’s heading. It’s just going to make our defense better with Flo flying around.”

The Bears have seen flashes from Floyd in the past, but he’s yet to put together much in the way of consistency when it comes to affecting the quarterback. His 11 1/2 sacks in 1,118 career snaps come out to an average of one sack every, roughly, 102 snaps in 22 career games. For a guy that’s averaged 51 snaps per game his first two years in the league, that averages out to about one sack every two games. 

If you factor in quarterback hurries, of which he has 21 in two years, Floyd is affecting the quarterback once every 34 snaps. Pernell McPhee, who the Bears released earlier this year, averaged a sack or a hurry once every 24 snaps, abeit in a small sample size. Von Miller, who Floyd is sharing practice fields with this week, averaged a hurry or sack once every 26 snaps in the last two years over 1,828 snaps. 

These numbers don’t factor in a lot of things, like coverage assignments or flat-out statistical misses of hurries (for instance, Floyd wasn’t credited with a hurry in last week’s preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals, despite his pressure on quarterback Andy Dalton forcing a throw Kyle Fuller picked off and ran back for a touchdown). But the overall point is this: The Bears need Floyd to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and be that double-digit-sack guy they envisioned when drafting him two years ago. 

Floyd isn’t putting that pressure on himself, though, and stuck to the usual one-day-at-a-time answer when asked how he achieves better consistency and what his goals are for the season. 

“Going out and practicing and just going as hard as you can, fixing your corrections and just continuing to be better every day,” Floyd said. 

If Floyd was a little reserved about his own expectations for the season, his teammates are more than willing to do the talking for him. 

“Even if he’s not flashy in the way you would want to see your outside linebacker flashing, he’s scaring offenses, you know what I’m saying?” defensive end Akiem Hicks, who tabbed Floyd as a Pro Bowl favorite as early as April, said. “So he already put that intimidation factor in there, and then to come up with the plays on top of that, the sky’s the limit for that guy. You just look at the body of work that he’s had as far as putting it in the past couple years, you’re waiting for that moment where he just takes over the league, and I think it’s this year.”

“He’s more disruptive,” Trevathan said. “I see a sense of him trying to create more big plays. Instead of just a sack, more to it. Sack/caused fumble. Getting the quarterback’s (vision). He’s guarding, dropping back. He’s doing everything that Flo is supposed to do even better now.”

Another positive point in Floyd’s favor is outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley seeing him talking more in meetings and growing more comfortable with his role and position on this defense. While Floyd isn’t going to be a vocal leader in that room — that role is ably filled by Sam Acho — his teammates are starting to notice his performances in practice. 

“I think our guys know that Leonard can do so many things for us,” Staley said. “They lean on him by his example — how he is in the practice field, how he is in the meetings. He's been doing a good job.”

But the most important point on Floyd may be this: The Bears bet big on him, and are betting big on him, based on how they addressed outside linebacker in the offseason. Aaron Lynch was brought in on a one-year, prove-it deal, but the injury issues that dogged him in San Francisco have returned during training camp (he’s only participated in one practice due to a hamstring injury). Acho was re-signed to a two-year deal, rewarding him for the stable play he’s provided over the last few years, but he’s only recorded four sacks in 47 games with the Bears. Ryan Pace waited until the sixth round before drafting an edge rusher, giving a flier to Kylie Fitts. Isaiah Irving, an undrafted rookie from a year ago, has flashed in a few preseason games dating back to last year but didn't record a sack in his 41 snaps on defense in 2017. 

Those moves screamed one thing: The Bears believe in Floyd, and believe if he has the kind of season they think he can have, they didn’t need a massive addition to their group of edge rushers. That doesn’t mean Pace won’t make a move for an edge rusher before or after cut-down day in September, but unless he were to pay an exorbitant price to trade for Khalil Mack, whoever is brought it won’t be viewed as the team’s No. 1 edge rushing option. 

That would be Floyd, who’s shown in the last few weeks that he’s past his season-ending knee injury from 2017. It’s now on the third-year player to make that leap in production and play a major role in the success of a Bears’ defense that, other than Smith, largely stood pat this spring. 

Under Center Podcast: Takeaways from the Bears’ joint practice in Denver

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AP

Under Center Podcast: Takeaways from the Bears’ joint practice in Denver

JJ Stankevitz and The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain break down the Bears’ joint practice with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday, including how Roquan Smith looked, some encouraging signs for the offense and an enjoyable sequence of pass-rushing drills involving Von Miller.

Listen to the full Under Center Podcast right here: