Bears

Miller: Who will be the next Bears GM?

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Miller: Who will be the next Bears GM?

With another potential general manager for the Bears now off the list, lets focus on some potential candidates in president Ted Phillips league-wide search for the Bears' next GM. Eagles Director of Player Personnel Ryan Grigson has agreed in principle today to become the next general manager of the Indianapolis Colts. Here are some names worth noting before the Bears potentially settle for Tim Ruskell.

Bill and Chris Polian
Former Chairman and GM of the Indianapolis Colts respectively.
It is hard to argue with Bill Polians track record. Polian built the Buffalo Bills into a powerhouse in the late 80s-early 90s. The Bills represented the AFC in four consecutive Super Bowls. After Buffalo, Polian put the Carolina Panthers on the map before directing the Colts to unprecedented success. Bill was grooming his son Chris to take over day to day operations of the Indianapolis Colts before 2011s devastating injury to Peyton Manning which derailed a decade of success. The Colts achieved seven years of 12 win seasons with two Super Bowl appearances. One of them being a World Championship by defeating the Chicago Bears. Chris is a tireless worker always on the road evaluating talent. The one caveat is the Polians services were no longer needed due to not having a backup plan for Manning. Peyton had not missed one game his entire NFL career. Potentially, the Polians could be hired in the same capacity for the Bears or Bill Sr as consultant with Chris Polian as GM. The positive is the Polians have drafted for a Tampa 2 defense numerous seasons in Indianapolis.

Tom Telesco
Director of Player Personnel of the Indianapolis Colts.
Telescos name has popped up on numerous teams radar. Most likely, because of Bill Polian and the Colts' unprecedented success in the AFC South. Telescos resume starts and stops with the Polians.

Nick Casario
Director of Player Personnel of the New England Patriots.

Nick is in his 11th season with the Patriots. Casario is another tireless worker who spent a number of seasons under GM Scott Pioli (now Chiefs GM). Nick understands day to day operations and works in close concert with Bill Belicheck on personnel decisions.

Steve Kiem
Director of Player Personnel of the Arizona Cardinals.

Kiem is in his 13th season with the Cardinals elevating from College Player Personnel to the pro side of things. Kiem is also well taught under current GM Rod Graves tutelage. The Cardinals have been one of the better drafting teams in terms of talent and finding diamonds in the rough that fit their scheme. Dont go by the Cardinals record this season! They were 8-8, but won seven out of their last nine games. The Cardinals were overhauling their team, restocking from a Super Bowl appearance two years ago. Off the current Cardinal 53 man roster, 51 new Cardinals were signed after the lockout.

John Dorsey
Director of College Scouting Green Bay Packers

Eliot Wolf
Asst. Director of Pro Personnel Green Bay Packers

They are good names, but not quite groomed completely in day to day operations like what Reggie McKenzie was doing alongside Ted Thompson before leaving to take the general manager position of the Oakland Raiders.

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be


How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives.

The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. 

But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. 

It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview:

“First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective.

“In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.”

The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. 

And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. 

The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully.

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. 

The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. 

So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. 

The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). 

If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019. 

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Under Center Podcast: State of the Bears: Defense

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USA TODAY

Under Center Podcast: State of the Bears: Defense

JJ Stankevitz, Cam Ellis and Paul Aspan are back with their training camp preview of the Bears' defense, looking at if it's fair to expect this group to take a step back without Vic Fangio (2:00) or if it's possible to repeat as the league's No. 1 defense (10:00). Plus, the guys look at which players the Bears need to improve to remain one of the NFL's best defenses (15:15), debate if Leonard Floyd can be better (20:00) and look at the future of the defense as a salary cap crunch looms after 2019 (25:00). 

Listen to the full podcast here or via the embedded player below: