Bears

Moon: Bears defense can stop Vick

Moon: Bears defense can stop Vick

Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2010
12:45 PM

By John Mullin
CSNChicago.com

Dropped in for the weekly chat with Mac and Spiegs on The Danny Mac Show on WSCR-AM 670 a little while ago and theres no shortage of things to visit on when something like the Michael Vick Experience is coming to town.

But I threw out with the guys the fact that while Vick is leading the NFL with a passer rating of 108.7, and has thrown 11 TD passes vs. zero INTs, this is a player who has never had a full-season rating above 82 or a completion percentage even as high as 56.

Vick may indeed be nothing like the athlete he was in those sometimes-erratic years but he is not going to go through 2010 without an interception, nor completing 63 percent of his passes. The Bears are good enough defensively to trouble Vick into mistakes and my early guess is that he will give the Bears one or two on Sunday.

Spiegs raised the specter of the Philadelphia defense, which has gotten totally short shrift amid VickMania. Check the next item here in the blog for why the Eagle defense vs. Jay CutlerMike Martz may be the bigger key to the outcome.

Well talk again next week and Danny wondered if well be talking about the 8-3 Bears or the 7-4 Bears preparing for a trip to Detroit. I dont feel overly good about making a call against an Eagles team that has been increasingly solid as this season has worn on but I like what the Bears have been doing defensively with gap integrity, which is the absolute needed for dealing with Vick.

Early call: Bears in a surprisingly low-scoring game against Philadelphias 28.4-ppg offense.

Ominous numbers

CSNPhilly.com colleague Reuben Frank has some analysis that should seriously concern the Bears. Reuben notes that the Eagles were among the NFLs poorest at stopping the run through the first quarter of the season but have since been one of the best at stopping what has become a critical part of the new Mike Martz offense.

Philadelphia was giving up 139 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry through its 2-2 start. Over the last six games the Eagles have allowed only 74 yards per game and 3.6 per carry. Just for purposes of comparison, the Bears defense that has drawn so many plaudits of late has given up an average of 78.7 over its last six games.

As notable inside the numbers, Reuben points out that the run-committed New York Giants, who average 32 rushes per game, gave up running the ball in last Sunday nights loss to the Eagles and ran the ball just three times in the second half.

The Bears have run the ball 30-plus times in the last three games, a rare stretch for a Martz offense. The Bears stayed with the run despite modest per-carry success against Miami, Minnesota and Buffalo whether Martz and Mike Tice, whose input is more than apparent in the game plans and execution, have the resolve to stay with the run against an elite run defense might be the key to the Bears keeping Michael Vick in an Eagles cape on the sideline rather than the Superman cape hes suspected of wearing on the field
Face time

Looking forward to sitting in with William Jackson on Bears Blitz today at 5 p.m. Billy Jack is a long-time football guy and always good to swap thoughts with.

John "Moon" Mullin is CSNChicago.com's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

First and Final thoughts: Are the Bears really a playoff team?

First and Final thoughts: Are the Bears really a playoff team?

Welcome into First and Final Thoughts, one of our weekly columns with a title that's a little too on the nose. Here we'll have Insider J.J Stankevitz, Producer Cam Ellis, and a rotating cast of NBC Sports Chicago's Bears team give some insight into what's on their minds between games.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Stankevitz: From a pure talent perspective, the Bears look like they have what it takes to make a run at the playoffs...so long as they get better play out of their quarterback. What this defense did in the second half against Arizona was remarkable: Interception, interception, forced fumble, interception, game-ending sack. Khalil Mack really is making an already-talented group of players that much better. We know what the Bears have in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, and Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel have done well to get open. So it comes down to if Trubisky can play better than he has in the first three weeks of the season. If he does, the Bears are legitimate contenders in the NFC. If not, there's a ceiling on how good 2018 really can be. 

Ellis: While the Bears’ front seven gets most of the attention, their secondary has had their share of impressive performances so far. Both of the Bears’ wins this year have been sealed by interceptions: Prince Amukamara’s backbreaking pick-six vs. Seattle and Bryce Callahan’s pick of Josh Rosen just outside of field goal range. They still give up too many big plays, but Football Outsiders ranks them as the 5th best pass defense in football. Callahan looks particularly good this year, which is well-timed considering Kyle Fullers’ relative struggles to start the season. 

FIRST THOUGHTS

Stankevitz: No matter who's playing quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they're going to provide quite a test for the Bears' secondary. Wide receivers Mike Evans (23 catches, 367 yards, 3 TDs) and DeSean Jackson (12 catches, 312 yards, 3 TDs) are playing like the best 1-2 combo in the league, and then add in tight end O.J. Howard (11 catches, 222 yards, 1 TD) and receiver Chris Godwin (13 catches, 171 yards, 3 TDs) and it's clear how many weapons the Bucs have for Ryan Fitzpatrick or, if he gets the nod, Jameis Winston. The status of Prince Amukamara (hamstring) will be critical to watch this week, as Marcus Cooper (who didn’t play against Arizona) has been picked on when he's played in a Bears uniform and undrafted rookie Kevin Toliver II had some issues against the Cardinals. But hey, it's just as we all predicted in August, right? The first-place Bears face the first-place Bucs in Week 4. It'll be a fun one. 


Ellis: Keeping on the theme of tests, this week provides a strangely unique one for the Bears. Reports out of Tampa currently are that the Buccaneers won’t announce who their starting quarterback is until Sunday morning. Whether it’s Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bears have to spend time this week preparing for both; it’s not like their styles of play overlap much, either. It’s an interesting wrinkle to the usual week of pregame practices and meetings. My guess is that they’d rather prep for one of the Winston/Fitzpatrick combo than Aaron Rodgers (or Tom Brady later in October) but still. 

Assessing misperceptions about Bears' Mitch Trubisky – the young QB is trending where Bears want him

trubisk.jpg
USA TODAY

Assessing misperceptions about Bears' Mitch Trubisky – the young QB is trending where Bears want him

First things first, getting some ancient history out of the way but also looking at it in a different light….

Turns out Dowell Loggains may not have been an idiot or John Fox an offensive restrictor plate, either, in the matter of using and developing Mitchell Trubisky. They in fact appear to have known some things that Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich are finding out about one young NFL quarterback: that Trubisky simply isn’t particularly accurate or effective going downfield with his passes. At least, not yet.

The Bears did their ongoing due analytics through Trubisky’s rookie year. In the requisite pursuit of putting a player in the best chance to have success, they determined what he wasn’t good at, and trimmed back much of the field from his scripting and play rolodex early. The sense now is that Nagy also may be doing just that with Trubisky.

Something never made complete sense, that Loggains, had thrown the ball around Soldier and other Fields more than 61 percent of the time with Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley. Yet with a talent like Trubisky, he was calling only a more-balanced 53 percent passing. The accuracy reality helps you understand some of the reason why; The young QB just hadn’t really thrown accurately down the field, or anywhere, for that matter, looking at his 59.4-percent completion rate even with the top of the field dialed back.

Downfield accuracy can be a quirky thing. Rex Grossman, for instance, was quixotically more accurate when passes were directed longer than 15 yards, yet maddeningly scattershot on, say, bubble screens. Trubisky is not that, most quarterbacks aren’t, but positive plays are the objective, wherever they lie for the particular thrower.

But all of that’s not really important now, just looking at Trubisky with some perspective; the downfield accuracy that’s a true work in progress wasn’t there then. And best guess is that Fox, Loggains and the rest of the staff weren’t going to tell Charles Leno, Bobby Massie, Cody Whitehair or anyone else on offense to get their bodies pounded just so the kid could learn how to throw deep. The point was, and is, to win the game (thank you, Herman Edwards).

More to matters of more recent perspective….

Using the right evaluation scales

One simple (well, maybe not completely simple) fact is that Mitch Trubisky is improving, and in many respects, substantially, even as frustration and dissecting continue.

First, a note of explanation: Evaluating Trubisky against expectations, even for a No. 2-overall pick, isn’t useful. Neither is evaluating him strictly vis’a’vis other young quarterbacks.

What is useful is evaluating Trubisky vs. Trubisky, No. 1, and No. 2, more important, is the team winning with him?

The answer to No. 2 is “yes.” Two wins in three games, being within on defensive stop of having his team 3-0—that’s a “yes.” He had his team 2-1 last year after three starts, albeit against better competition (Minnesota, Baltimore, Carolina), so he is at least as win’ish as he was as a rookie.

As to No. 1, the footwork isn’t where he or his coaches want it. Neither is his decision-making. Nor the accuracy thing.

But evaluating Trubisky against Trubisky and not Allen, Mahomes, Watson or anyone else, the point is signs of improvement. Consider:

In his first three starts last season, Trubisky barely qualified for “inaccurate” or “productive.” In his first three starts this season, he’s earned both, even with his distance issues:

 

                           2017                                    2018

 

                  Cmp.     Yards                    Cmp.      Yards

 

Gm 1         48.0%       128                    65.7%       171

 

Gm 2         50.0%       113                    73.5          200

 

Gm 3         57.1%       107                    68.6          220

 

Even with a couple of untoward throws and interceptions, his INT rate is still a respectable-if-not-great 2.9 percent.

Trubisky’s meaningful arrows are pointing up when compared to where he finished that rookie season, when he went out 1-2 with declining performances:

Gm 14      67.4%       314

 

Gm 15      60.9%       193

 

Gm 16      55.6%       178

Putting a final assessment of Trubisky is still quite some weeks off for 2018, and quite sometime longer for what he is big-picture. But in the meantime, comparing Mitch Trubisky ’17 to Mitch Trubisky ’18, the new one is better.