Moon's game-by-game predictions for Bears in 2016

Moon's game-by-game predictions for Bears in 2016

Week 1: at Houston Texans (9-7) Sun., Sept. 11 at 12 p.m.

Mediocre team slipped into playoffs for mauling by Chiefs, then went after Brock Osweiler to fix QB issues for (they hope) at least next four years and added offense with RB Lamar Miller from Miami, G Jeff Allen from Kansas City and C Tony Bergstrom from Oakland. J.J. Watt says he’s beat-up but he’s more the beater than the beaten.

Moon's call: L

Week 2: Philadelphia Eagles (7-9) Mon., Sept. 19 at 7:30 p.m.

Iggles gambling that Doug Pederson can do what Chip Kelly couldn’t, which would surprise most of the NFL. Sam Bradford got a huge ($20 million per) two-year extension and Eagles traded away DeMarco Murray, so what inexperienced coach who was once Brett Favre’s backup does with this offense will be interesting.

Moon’s call: W

Week 3: at Dallas Cowboys (4-12) Mon., Sept. 25 at 7:30 p.m.

Wheels and entire drivetrain fell off when Tony Romo hurt last season, and few teams capable of underachieving as well as Cowboys (one winning season since 2009). Still one of NFL’s elite OL’s but Jay Cutler has 118.0 career passer rating vs. Dallas.

Moon’s call: L

Week 4: Detroit Lions (7-9) Sun., Oct. 2 at 12 p.m.

Bears hemorrhaged yardage to lose in OT at Detroit and turned the ball and the game over in Soldier Field in game 16. Both of those problems should be fixed when Bears and Lions convene in 2016. Expect the Bears to take both games this year from a Detroit team that loses Calvin Johnson, was NFL’s worst rushing team and has issues winning up front with either line.

Moon’s call: W

Week 5: at Indianapolis Colts (8-8) Sun., Oct. 9 at 12 p.m.

Andrew Luck had career-worst INT percentage (4.1) amid injury speckled year and starting just seven games, going just 2-5 in those. Colts settled organization with Grigson, Pagano extensions, don’t have WR Andre Johnson or TE Coby Fleener back for Luck targets, but the Colts are very good at home with a healthy No. 1 QB.

Moon's call: L

Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Sun., Oct. 16 at 12 p.m.

Jags dumped Lovie Smith pal Bob Babich as defensive coordinator and upgraded with Malik Jackson on DL and Tashaun Gipson at S. Getting RB Chris Ivory via free agency will help offense but the Jags were 1-7 on road last year and haven’t won more than five games since 2010 or had winning season since 2007. Their draft pick at No. 5 will help somewhere but too much needed.

Moon’s call: W

Week 7: at Green Bay Packers (10-6) Thurs., Oct. 20 at 7:25 p.m.

The Packers were the one NFC North opponent that the Bears managed a win against in 2015. Green Bay gets wideout Jordy Nelson back from a knee injury that cost him for the year but the defense loses nose tackle B.J. Raji to retirement after Raji missed just five games total over six NFL seasons. But this is still the team to beat in the NFC North as long as No. 12 is in place. Aaron Rodgers had worst passing year in seven seasons as starter and Packers still won 10 games. Bears of John Fox should be beyond automatically losing both to Packers every year.

Moon’s call: L

Week 8: Minnesota Vikings (11-5) Mon., Oct. 31 at 7:30 p.m.

When Green Bay stumbled even a little, the Vikings behind Teddy Bridgewater slipped ahead of them with a 5-1 division mark, including two W’s vs. the Bears, who squandered multiple game-winning moments in meeting 1. Vikings still have OL issues with Bears ramping up their front-seven, and Bears won’t give up 10 points in final 1:49 of a game the way they did to lose in Soldier Field last November.

Moon’s call: L

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: at Tampa Bay (6-10) Sun., Nov. 13 at 12 p.m.

Slimy handling of Lovie Smith-to-Dirk Koetter coaching change unlikely to improve internal chemistry but Bucs aggressive in talent upgrades at all three levels of “D” plus adding G J.R. Sweezy to block for Jameis Winston and new-contract’ed RB Doug Martin. Bears needed four FGs to beat Bucs last year but should score more this time.

Moon's call: W

Week 11: at New York Giants (6-10) Sun., Nov. 20 at 12 p.m.

Do the Giants get better replacing Tom Coughlin with Ben McAdoo, who’s never been a head coach at any level, including high school, and just last two years as an offensive coordinator? Or with losing 2/5 of starting OL? Not likely.

Moon’s call:   W

Week 12: Tennessee Titans (3-13) Sun., Nov. 27 at 12 p.m.

Mike Mularkey has the “interim” tag removed and the Titans deal for RB DeMarco Murray to give QB Marcus Mariota some help. But only the woeful Browns scored fewer among AFC teams last year. The Titans’ draft trade-down with the Rams gave them a huge basket of picks, clearly looking beyond just 2016. Not good enough yet, though.

Moon’s call: W

Week 13: San Francisco 49ers (5-11) Sun., Dec. 4 at 12 p.m.

Jim Tomsula accomplished next to nothing in his one year as coach but he did manage the 49ers’ lone road win, at Chicago. Since Tomsula’s firing, Chip Kelly has been sorting through QB issues and there are major questions about 49ers’ scheme choices on defense. The Bears cannot unravel vs. San Francisco again…can they?

Moon’s call: W

Week 14: at Detroit Lions, Sun., Dec. 11 at 12 p.m.

Moon's call: W

Week 15: Green Bay Packers, Sun., Dec. 18 at 12 p.m.

Moon's call: W

Week 16: Washington Redskins (9-7) Sun., Dec. 24 at 12 p.m.

The Bears helped Kirk Cousins’ bid for franchise-tag money, allowing 24 completions in 31 attempts, and being annihilated by TE Jordan Reed (9-120-1). Defense allowed touchdown drives of 80, 83 yards on first two possessions in one of too many slow starts, and the offense got 290 passing yards and two TD’s from Cutler. The Redskins stayed conservative in free agency with GM Scot McCloughan tilting toward draft.

Moon’s call:   W

Week 17: Minnesota Vikings, Sun., Jan. 1 at 12 p.m.

Moon's call: L

Final record: 10-6

Akiem Hicks makes Pro Football Focus Team of the Week after strong game against Dolphins


Akiem Hicks makes Pro Football Focus Team of the Week after strong game against Dolphins

The Bears defense was not its usual self in their overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The pass rush was minimal and tackling looked optional, and Brock Osweiler threw for almost 400 yards.

There was plenty of blame to go around, but a few individual defenders had success while their teammates struggled.

Defensive lineman Akiem Hicks made the Pro Football Focus Team of the Week for Week 6 with a 92.2 overall grade.

He recorded seven tackles that resulted in a defensive “stop,” the most of any defensive lineman according to PFF.

Chicago’s next highest-graded player was cornerback Kyle Fuller (78.2), who intercepted Osweiler twice but also missed two tackles.

Offensively, wide receiver Taylor Gabriel led the way with a 76.9 mark. PFF credited four of his five catches coming against Dolphins cornerback Torry McTyer in coverage.

Meanwhile, outside linebacker Khalil Mack had the lowest-graded game of his career (47.8), while linebacker Danny Trevathan (29.9) and safety Adrian Amos Jr. (47.5) each had their second-worst games.

Some of the Bears’ best players were at their worst in Miami. They’re going to need to get their act together for the New England Patriots on Sunday.

Drilling further down on Matt Nagy after Bears OT loss to Miami Dolphins


Drilling further down on Matt Nagy after Bears OT loss to Miami Dolphins

The 31-28 overtime Bears loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday had myriad authors on the Chicago side of the ledger. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky correctly assessed the defeat as a team loss, which is pretty much the case in any NFL loss, but particularly so in this case.

“Growing pains” only goes so far in explaining the variety of problems that befell all three Bears phases in the heat of south Florida. And while devastating mistakes are inevitable for young, inexperienced head coaches and players, it falls to those coaches and players to demonstrate that Sunday in Hard Rock Stadium was an anomaly.

Because after five 2018 games, it is not clear that the Miami missteps are indeed exceptions, on the parts of players or coaches, both in fact. Regardless of whether the fault lies with offense or defense (special teams get a pass; Sunday should never come down to Cody Parkey needing to make a field goal from 53 yards).

The Bears have gone into four 2018 fourth quarters with leads and lost two of those games. The late-game defensive collapses at Green Bay and Miami should suffice to put a sock in mentions of the ’85 Bears defense and the ’18 iteration in the same conversation.

And the fact that the Bears offense has not scored more than 7 points in any of the five 2018 fourth quarters says that more than just the defense lacks a consistent finishing kick.

Coaching not to lose?

There is a fourth “phase,” and not the one (fans) that Lovie Smith once cited. It is coaching, which is intricately interwoven with each of the three main units but is its own phase. How well this fourth phase performed in Miami is a matter of some hazy perspectives.

“I’m a big boy; I can handle criticism,” Nagy said Monday. “You talking about the 53-yard field goal? No, I’m fine with that. I have no issue at all with the criticism. That’s where people are? That’s their own opinion. I felt good with what we did and, shoot, we’re all in this thing together and I trust our guys.”

Beginning with relative minutiae: Two flags were thrown (one declined) in Miami for illegal formations, in both cases for leaving the right tackle uncovered. A delay-of-game penalty on a second-and-3 at the Miami 44, led to a punt when the offense only made up seven of the resulting eight yards. That sloppiness pointed to issues on the sideline rather than in the huddle.

On multiple occasions coach Matt Nagy strongly defended Trubisky during training camp when interceptions occurred, the coach considering those acceptable temporary losses in the greater quest for his quarterback learning to stay aggressive in learning his limits and capabilities.

Yet in more than one situation Sunday, it was Nagy who dialed back the aggressive edge that he’s spoken of seeking to install in his quarterback and team. It left at least a small question as to whether Nagy lacked confidence in himself or his quarterback or his team to deliver in a critical moment.

Did Nagy second-guess himself the morning after? “Nope.”

Shaky confidence?

Whether the Bears were properly prepared coming into Sunday was an issue. A team on a three-game high came out of an off week with its poorest first-half performance of the season.

But it is what happened, or didn’t happen, later that warrants the some scrutiny.

As in: Nagy’s playcalling with the game there for the winning – the overtime possession starting from the Chicago 20, needing only a field goal for a win.

The point is not second-guessing a specific call or calls, but rather what may be at work with Nagy’s overall thinking and propensities.

After a short, high-percentage throw to Trey Burton on first down, Nagy called five straight runs. The first two, runs of 19 and 15 yards by Jordan Howard, worked. Howard went out for a two-snap break, then was back for a final run on third-and-4, which failed, leaving the ball at the Miami 35, Nagy’s minimum for attempting a field goal.

Beyond the obvious conservatism, the overall put the Bears in position of not only needing to convert a 53-yard field goal, but also leaving the Dolphins with field position at their 43 if the kick missed, which it did, although NFL kickers convert from 50-plus yards at a rate approaching 62 percent.

“To me, that 35-yard line [was the minimum], a 53-yard field goal, I have ultimate trust in [kicker Cody Parkey] making that,” Nagy said. “But at the same time, every yard that you get brings the percentage up a little bit.

“We just hit a [19]-yard run, we just hit a 15-yard run, and then we had a couple more runs right behind that. That’s just the decision we ended up making. Now, [if] he makes that kick and we’re good. He doesn’t and it’s ‘could you get a little bit closer?’ It would have helped, but at the same time I think Cody would be the first to tell you that he knows he can make that.”

One problem: Were Nagy’s defense playing at the level it had in the three previous games, he could be excused for trusting his defense to deliver a stop even with the Miami starting point. But the Dolphins had pushed the defense backwards for 344 total yards over the prior six possessions. There should have been no reasonable expectation that the defense, which already had driven backward 74 yards before a fumble on the first overtime possession, would suddenly rise up for a stop.

Nagy’s tactics also hint a lack of convinced confidence that his quarterback and offense could pull off an aggressive, under-control possession at that point. Exactly what Nagy is likely to stay in-house. His offense had scored touchdowns on four of its first five possessions of the second half, when the Bears never punted.

But Trubisky had thrown an inexplicable interception from the Miami 13 and Tarik Cohen had lost a fumble at the Chicago 45 on the fourth-quarter possessions on either side of the final Bears touchdown. So by the time the overtime possession arrived, Nagy had seen turnovers by all three principle members of his backfield – Cohen, Howard and Trubisky.

Whatever his reasoning, Nagy flashed defensive in the face of questions on his calls – “You go ahead, you throw it and then [media] are here asking me why you took a sack” – a response loosely suggests that Nagy either cares what people think (unlikely) or that he was mad at himself and/or his players (more likely).

That Nagy alluded to Trubisky taking a sack recalls sacks that the quarterback has taken that cost his team yardage before a missed field goal (Arizona) and other sacks incurred trying to force a play. Nagy sidestepped a question as to whether he would play that situation differently at such time as when Trubisky and his offense are more mature.

An erudite non-answer answer.

Fatigue factor

Running back Tarik Cohen mentioned his own failure to deal sufficiently with fatigue in Sunday’s second half, mentioned it in connection with his lost fourth-quarter fumble. Whether fatigue being allowed to reach a red-line level falls on coaches or player is debatable; players owe coaches honest self-assessments, and coaches had balanced snaps reasonably well for Cohen (34) and Howard (36) for the game.

Cohen is a young player. Nagy and most of his staff are young, and heat-management is not usually at the top of game-planning sheets. The last time (1994) the Bears played a day game in Miami, Cohen was still a year away from being born and Howard was two weeks old. Trips to Tampa the past three years don’t qualify for carryover conditioning; besides, one of the three was in December, a second in November.

But in the absence of player restraint/moderation/discretion/whatever in the face of in-game physical decline, it falls to Bears staff to monitor conditioning. The clear fall-off by the defense was more than apparent in the form of ebbing effort, missed tackles and generally flagging performance.

“I want to say that I’m not sure that our training staff and sports science staff could have done a better job in that situation,” Nagy said. “It was absolutely phenomenal. They were unbelievable, with how they handled the hydration and the cramping with our players. It was unreal. And so, that’s a credit to them for being prepared and getting our guys right.

“That was a long game. And when you play an extra period, or extra quarter in that heat, that’s a lot. For our guys to do that, that’s another part of the challenge that they battled through and that was everybody collectively — not just the players, but our staff as well.”