Bears

Presented By Mullin
Bears

Of all the variables surrounding the Bears' trade to get into position for the drafting Mitch Trubisky, here is arguably the most meaningless (or is it "least meaningful?" grammarians, weigh in):

Based on just the numbers, the Bears’ giving the San Francisco 49ers third- and fourth-round picks this draft and a third in 2018, for the right to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 in round one may have been about the right price to pay for what they believe will be their franchise quarterback. A good price, actually.

Here's the “deal:”

ProFootballTalk.com tracked down the new draft-trade chart put together by Rich Hill at PatsPulpit.com, which is an excellent effort at collating information from NFL executives and examples of deals into a revised chart reflecting various market factors that have changed since Jimmy Johnson his in use with the Dallas Cowboys, including the tweaks based on the 2011 CBA implementation.

Rich’s conclusion to me: “The Bears get edge, but…” and here’s his math:

Bears get: No. 2 (717.17)

49ers get: No. 3 (514.33), No. 67 (74.59), No. 111 (28.22) and 2018 third round (38.02) = 655.16

That gives the Bears a delta of +62.01, which is the value equivalent to the 75th overall pick (third round).

The huge obvious qualifier (both in the trade and in the future) lies in the value of the quarterback; Trubisky was not as highly regarded as either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, who went 1-2 in the 2016 draft to teams (Los Angeles, Philadelphia), that traded massive hauls to move up for them. Washington mortgaged its future in 2012 to move up to No. 2 for Robert Griffin III, another prospect rated considerably higher than Trubisky.

 

[RELATED: If Mitch Trubisky develops well, 'No one's ever going to care what they gave up for him']

A specific parallel, sans “table numbers?” San Diego trading with Arizona to swap places from No. 3 to No. 2 in the 1998 draft. The Chargers gave the Cardinals two No. 1’s and a No. 2 plus two players. As far as a No. 2, Leaf wasn’t Donovan McNabb (no trade) or Wentz. If Trubisky is closer to the latters, the deal (and Bears scouting under Pace) was probably a good thing.

Considerable debate has swirled over whether the Bears were the only team bidding, whether the 49ers actually had other offers or if the Bears were just the only team willing to meet San Francisco’s price. The last issue isn’t really an issue; of course the Bears were the only one to meet the price, which is why they got the No. 2 pick.