Bears

Two years to evaluate a Bears draft? Not if you’re paying attention

Two years to evaluate a Bears draft? Not if you’re paying attention

While it is conventional (and convenient) to hold that it takes at least two full years to evaluate a draft, NFL teams can’t take that long and don’t take that long. A full evaluation of a player or players might take time, but if anyone needs two years to know whether a draft was fruitful or left glaring needs unfilled, they need to pay closer attention to rookie performances.

This is absolutely not to say that draft grades done immediately after the weekend’s selections have any meaningful value whatsoever. Personally, waiting until at least the first couple weeks of training camp, when pads and hitting happen, makes a bit more sense.

But does anyone really need two more seasons to know whether Eddie Goldman is an NFL nose tackle? Or that Adrian Amos is a safety of some significance? Really? Or Jeremy Langford at running back? Hroniss Grasu needs to take a major step up in Year 2, but Jarron Gilbert and Juaquin Iglesias, third-round picks in 2009, were clearly what they were by the end of a half-season or so that year.

Was anyone not sure about Kyle Long by mid-2013, his rookie season? Or about Dan Bazuin by halfway through the 2007 training camp?

Some drafts might put players into lineups simply because there are no better options at the time (Russell Davis in 1999, Al Afalava in 2009, Jordan Mills in 2013, Brock Vereen in 2014). But typically those players are not going to be confused with Pro Bowl talents (Long, Alshon Jeffery), and the Bears did not need two or three years to conclude that.

Using an analogy from another industry altogether: Wine makers know long, long before a vintage is bottled whether the wine will be good or bad. They might not know how good, but anyone who has ever experienced a barrel tasting knows that experts can tell from a pipette of wine from a barrel what the outlook for that wine is. A wine might reach unanticipated heights ultimately, but they do not need three years to know if it is a hit or miss.

At the end of the 2012 season, it was apparent what the Bears had — or didn’t have — in Shea McClellin. The change to a 3-4 scheme and move of him to inside linebacker improved the “vintage,” but within reasonable parameters, what McClellin was showed itself that first season. Lovie Smith refused to move McClellin to middle linebacker.

By comparison, Jeffery had flashed enough at the end of that year to win a starting job outright and to make clear that the Bears had something special.

As specific points of comparison, Brian Urlacher was a bust as a “Sam” linebacker even before the 2000 season started. By the end of that rookie season, however, maybe even by mid-2000 when he had supplanted Barry Minter as middle linebacker, knowing what Urlacher and Mike Brown were did not take anything close to two years to evaluate.

Cade McNown in 1999 — same thing. The Bears wanted him to be a huge hit, but by mid-1999, his limitations were evident, confirmed in 2000.

Injuries and other factors can create exceptions to every rule. But based on the “barrel tasting” of last season, best guess here is that general manager Ryan Pace already has a pretty good take on what his 2015 draft did or did not produce.

Which Bears have the highest player rating in Madden 19?

Which Bears have the highest player rating in Madden 19?

The time has come to start counting down to the release of Madden 19. The most popular football video game franchise of all-time is set to release in early August and as is a tradition with the weeks leading up to the game appearing on store shelves, leaks about features and player ratings have started.

Here are the highest rated Bears players in this year's edition:

Adrian Amos leads the way with an 88 rating, followed by Akiem Hicks (85) and Allen Robinson (85). 

Chicago's offense received a 75 overall rating, which should result in a significant challenge for Bears fans trying to score virtual points later this summer. The defense, however, will be stout, coming in with an overall rating of 81. Amos and Hicks have a lot to do with that.

Ratings are subject to change due to injury. Madden 19 is scheduled for release on August 10.

Bears, Matt Nagy working at work-rest balance equation to pull back from annual injury abyss

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USA TODAY

Bears, Matt Nagy working at work-rest balance equation to pull back from annual injury abyss

The Bears are at rest right now. The weeks between the end of the final minicamp and the start of the “season” that runs from the start of training camp through the final game represent the last time most if not all players will be truly 100 percent until early 2019.

In not too many days the Bears will begin their training camp, upshifting the pace, depth and urgency of formation of the 2018 team. Along with that comes the annual dilemma, not unique to the Bears, of balancing practice and strength training to achieve the football maximum while simultaneously staying within a plan calculated to minimize what has become a Bears curse since the departure of the Lovie Smith staff:

Injuries.

Injuries not confined to camp and practices, but also to creating a landscape that results in minimizing injuries throughout the season. And it is a complex equation that the Bears are trying to balance, one that reaches beyond football and involves complicated factors.

Matt Nagy is putting a small fingerprint of his own, instituting an 8:15 a.m. start time for the vast majority of Bourbonnais practices, “to keep guys out of the heat for the most part,” Nagy said.

Practice limitations have been mandated by virtue of collective bargaining agreements. The quirk for the Bears has been that as practice intensity has been legislated downward, injury totals (using players on IR as an apples-to-apples measure) have risen. The debate then has gone to whether lessened practices in fact saves players or ironically results in more injuries in games because players have not been sufficiently hardened for the intensity spike that games are.

Along with that is the need to truly learn schemes and plays in live action.

“I think football is a game, like many games, that you have to get calloused to,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said during minicamp. “It’s like when we go out the first day of training camp with pads on, and guys are hitting a little bit. You’re going to be taken aback and get mad that the guy just hit you too hard. But then by a week or two later, you’re getting hit like that and don’t even realize it. You gotta get calloused.

“So I do believe, even though you couldn’t prove it objectively or quantify it, I do believe that it’s a problem.”

Do the Bears need to rest more?

Nagy has seen the value of rest. Andy Reid, the head coach when Nagy worked in Philadelphia and Kansas City, is a lofty 16-3 in games after off-weeks during his coaching career. Last year his Chiefs did lose a road game post-bye, but Reid was 4-0 in Kansas City’s other games coming off more than the normal six days between games.

Other than the Bears, the five teams with the greatest number of schedule-created off days in the 2017 season appeared to put the time to good use:

Team Off days 2017 record (*playoffs)
Kansas City 12 10-6*
Buffalo 8 9-7*
Chicago 8 5-11
San Diego 8 9-7
Philadelphia 7 13-3*

A case can be made that recovery days are often as important as the effort days, that athletes perform better after their bodies have had even a brief window to heal. Coaches, too. As one Tour de France cyclist told this writer, people go too hard on the easy days, so they don’t fully recover, and too easy on the hard days.

Two-a-day, padded full-go practices were once the norm. Now consecutive padded practices don’t happen in-season, and even in camp, the objective is not as it once was, to weed out, but to develop. “I think back in the day you could say that it was ‘super-hard,’” Nagy said. “Now I’m not sure you’d consider it ‘super-hard.’”

The correlation between rest and results is far from exact. Marc Trestman was adamant about players getting off their feet after practices, and yet few teams sustained the level of injury, particularly on defense, that his Bears did. Lovie Smith’s practices were in the heat of the days, camp and other, with occasional night practices as prep for night games.

Year Coach Camp practice Year-end IR
2012 Lovie Smith 2/2:30 p.m., 7 p.m. (three) 6
2013-14 Marc Trestman 9 a.m., 3:15 p.m. (three) 6, 10
2015-17 John Fox 9:35/11:15 a.m. 12, 21, 19

Apart from any empirical or other scientific information, anecdotal evidence suggests that rest is a significant factor in influencing outcomes. The most elementary casual indicator is the importance teams, coaches and players universally assign to in-season off-weeks. The break period is utilized for self-scouting, which is going on constantly anyway, but also for getting healthy.

If the cluster of a few days off (players are routinely given the off-weekend plus the preceding day or two to themselves) has some demonstrable physical benefits, then any structuring of normal weeks to build in recovery time stands to reason as a step toward healing during a 17-week stretch that leaves no one completely healthy.

But it’s not that simple, particularly in-season. “They’ll have off on Monday, then be back on Tuesday,” Nagy said. “And with the game-planning, you have to build that in, obviously.”

Positive offseason

At the risk of installing a jinx here, the Bears came through the offseason program without apparent severe injuries, and with key players (Leonard Floyd, Kyle Long, Allen Robinson) being brought along conservatively in their returns from ’17 season-ending injuries. At the same time, the requisite work was put in installing a new offense and reigniting a returning defense.

Training camp and preseason now are next-level intensity, and the Bears lost offensive linemen Eric Kush and Jordan Morgan, receiver Cam Meredith and long snapper Pat Scales in the time frame between the start of camp and the start of the regular season.

The objective moves to another level of managing the balance between preserving bodies for when it matters and getting done the work that has to be covered. Some of that was accomplished with some understandings of historical perspectives.

“I told the guys the analogy the other day, the history of training camp in the NFL where there was no such thing as OTA’s years ago,” Fangio said. “But years ago there were six preseason games and two-a-days for all that time. Then it went down to four preseason games and two-a-day’s. And when I say ‘two-a-days,’ they were two-a-days several days in a row.

“Now we’re to one-a-day’s with some legislated days off in there. These [offseason] practices are those practices that we’re missing that teams from the past had gotten. We view them as very, very important, and our guys have had good focus. So we’re working on the same stuff we always have, but I try to tell them that this isn’t an ‘OTA practice;’ this is a training camp for the guys of yesteryear without pads on.”