Beyond the Box Score: Analyzing Tony Snell vs. Doug McDermott


Beyond the Box Score: Analyzing Tony Snell vs. Doug McDermott

Welcome to the first edition of Beyond the Box Score! In this series, we will use advanced metrics and unique statistics to provide deeper analysis on the Bulls.

To start, we'd like to explore how the team has fared at the Small Forward position. This is one of the positions Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg has experimented with the most this season, interchanging Tony Snell and Doug McDermott while Mike Dunleavy recovers from offseason surgery.

Since Hoiberg focuses so much on the flow of the offense, let's take a look at each of their contributions on that side of the court. Luckily for Hoiberg, both Snell and McDermott are making significant contributions scoring the ball.

  Pts/Shot Open FG% Contested 3FG%
Doug McDermott 1.42 61.5% 56.8%
Tony Snell 1.05 61.1% 44.8%

According to Vantage Sports - a site which tracks thousands of basketball actions for every NBA game - McDermott holds the edge over Snell on offense.

As we can see, McDermott scores 1.42 points per shot, to Snell's 1.05, meaning McDermott scores more efficiently, and makes the most of his chances. In fact, McDermott's 1.42 pts/shot lead the whole team.

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We have to delve a little deeper to find out why McDermott is scoring at a better clip, however. The first thing that comes to mind, is to check how each shooter fares when they're wide open. Neither player has shot enough open 3's to show any true trend, so let's focus on their overall shooting when there's no defender in sight.

Bulls fans are happy to see that each man shoots very well when they're wide open, at over 61 percent. But since there's no real difference here, we have to look elsewhere to explain why McDermott boasts such a high pts/shot number.

We find one major factor when we explore how well each player shoots the 3, when a defender is contesting, or pressuring the shot. A defender contests, or pressures, a shot when he either gets a hand in the shooter's face, or runs late to challenge the shot, forcing the shooter to react quickly.

Here, McDermott shines, shooting a remarkable 56.8 percent lead the team. That's not to say Snell struggles. In fact, his 44.8 percent rate is second best on the Bulls. However, McDermott's impressive ability to knock down baskets, despite solid defense, separates him from Snell. 

But what about the defensive side of the ball? In addition to experimenting with the starting lineup, Hoiberg has mixed up the defensive rotations at the ends of games. According to Vantage Sports, Snell outperforms McDermott when guarding the ball handler.

  Pts/Shot DEF Contest % Foul %
Doug McDermott 1.00 37.5% 13.0%
Tony Snell 0.81 44.8% 8.3%

We can see that Snell outperforms McDermott in some major defensive categories, including points allowed per shot against. This doesn't meant that McDermott is letting the team down, by giving up one point per shot. But Snell's stout defense gives him the second best pts/shot against number on the team.

To explain this, again, we need to delve deeper into the data. One number that jumps out is the Contest%. This metric illustrates how often a defender contests, pressures, or forces the shooter to alter their release. Here, McDermott only manages a paltry 37.5 percent, which is the worst among all Bulls forwards.  Snell fares much better, with a 44.8 Contest%.

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What's more troubling is the fact that McDermott actually fouls more than Snell, even though he contests fewer shots. Conventional thought would say Snell should commit more fouls, since he challenges more shooters, however his 8.3 Foul% is fourth best on the team. Now that is good D.

So it's clear that each player brings his own special skill set to the court, and not surprisingly, Hoiberg has played each man situationally. What will be interesting to see, is how Hoiberg uses these two role players once Dunleavy returns from injury. Until then, it's fun watching these two do what they do best.

Bulls defense costs them late but showing 'competitive spirit' a step in right direction


Bulls defense costs them late but showing 'competitive spirit' a step in right direction

The Bulls defense is nowhere near where it needs to be, and it cost them dearly on Saturday night. But in a season that’s still about seeing progression both individually and collectively, the Bulls took a step in the right direction with their effort and what Fred Hoiberg called “competitive spirit.”

That won’t change the standings when they wake up Sunday morning, now facing an 0-2 hole in the early season. And while better effort and tougher defense helped them stage a second-half comeback they weren’t able to manage on Thursday, it was a defensive miscue that cost them the game.

Ish Smith split a double screen at the top of the key and sliced his way past Jabari Parker for a wide open go-ahead layup with 5.4 seconds left. Zach LaVine, who 20 seconds earlier had tied the game with the last of his 33 points, was unable to get a shot off after a timeout. Better than Thursday for 47 minutes and 50 seconds. But still costing them when it mattered most.

“We can’t give up a layup for the last play,” said LaVine, who was guarding Smith. “We just got to get our defense right. That’s why it’s really upsetting because we played so well, we came back but we can’t give up a layup. We at least have to make him take a tough one. That was as easy a layup as you can get. It’s really upsetting.”

Fred Hoiberg defended his decision to leave Parker in the game instead of inserting rookie Wendell Carter Jr. He opted to ride the group that helped the Bulls erase a fourth-quarter deficit when it appeared the Bulls were spiraling toward another double-digit loss.

But the Pistons were ready to find the weak link in the Bulls defense and expose it, like they did much of the fourth quarter while attacking Parker with Blake Griffin. As the screen was set Parker jumped outside to cut off Smith, who then made a cut inward and made a dash to the rim. Parker was a couple steps late, allowing the 5-foot-9 Smith to score with ease to give the Pistons their lead and the eventual game-winner.

Bobby Portis, whose shot wasn’t falling but played admirable defense against a talent like Griffin, was on the other side of the double screen and didn’t have a great view of the play. But he said allowing a layup with the game on the line is inexcusable.

“It’s a tough play but at the same time you don’t want to give up a layup at the end of the game,” he said. “You want to make him take a tough shot. That’s something we’ve got to work on, is late game execution on defense.”

But again, it’s about baby steps. The Bulls will want that final possession back, and Hoiberg might also want it back after leaving Parker in the game over Carter. But from where the Bulls were on Thursday, this was better. Granted, allowing 118 points and 18 3-pointers to the Pistons isn’t a recipe for success, it’s improvement nonetheless. Detroit got a career-high five triples from Griffin, four from Reggie Jackson (a career 32 percent 3-point shooter) and a pair from Stnaley Johnson (a career 29 percent 3-point shooter). The Bulls will be able to live with some of those makes.

On Thursday the Bulls trailed by just six early in the third quarter before the Sixers ripped off a 19-3 run to put the game out of reach. On Saturday the Pistons got out to a six-point lead on two different occasions, and then a seven-point lead with just 2:01 to play. All three times the Bulls came roaring back, using timely spots and clutch baskets from LaVine, Park and even Cameron Payne, who tied a career-high with 17 points.

Ultimately it wasn’t enough, but it’s a positive sign that they were able to battle back and show some fight defensively. They’ll certainly need that when they travel to Dallas to take on a Mavericks team that scored 140 points on the Jimmy Butler-less Timberwolves on Saturday. They should get Dunn back, which will help,  and now have a close contest under their belt on which to build. It didn’t result in a win, and the late-game cross-up was the cause, but the Bulls finished Saturday in a much better place than they were in on Thursday.

“Yeah but obviously we want to get the win. I feel like we fought hard,” Portis said. “Even when adversity hit everybody stuck together. We did our thing tonight. You want to win the game but I felt like we did our job tonight. We just gave up a bad play at the end of the game.”

Denzel Valentine suffers setback on injured left ankle, will be reevaluated in 2 weeks


Denzel Valentine suffers setback on injured left ankle, will be reevaluated in 2 weeks

Denzel Valentine’s troublesome left ankle is going to keep him on the sideline for at least the next two weeks. Fred Hoiberg said Saturday before the Bulls’ home opener against the Detroit Pistons that Valentine is suffering from a bone bruise in the ankle he sprained on the second day of training camp. Valentine will be evaluated in two weeks.

“It sucks because of all the work I put in this summer and being around the guys you want to be out there so bad,” he said. “Things happen for a reason, and now that we know what’s going on I at least have a time frame and be patient with it; it’s bad news but good news at the same time as it gives me time to get ready.”

Valentine had been practicing earlier in the week and appeared close to a return after spraining the ankle on Sept. 25. But the third year wing complained of discomfort in the ankle and missed practice on Friday. A scan of the left ankle revealed the bone bruise, and Hoiberg wouldn’t speculate on when exactly Valentine might return.

It’s the same ankle Valentine had surgery on in May 2017. Valentine also missed the last two weeks of last season after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. The injury couldn’t come at a worse time for Valentine or the Bulls, who are in desparate need of help both in the backcourt and on the wing.

Though Valentine isn’t a true point guard, he averaged 3.2 assists per game off the bench last season. The Bulls could use that kind of production when Kris Dunn returns on Monday, as Cameron Payne and Ryan Arcidiacono haven’t exactly showed promise in the early going.

Instead, Valentine is on the mend and it’s unclear when he might return. Given he’s had surgery on the same ankle before, the Bulls will be cautious upon his return.

“I’m a fighter, I’m not going to quit; just deal with the hand dealt," Valentine said. "I can’t sit here and be negative, I just got to fight, stay mentally strong and this will be bittersweet when I come back and have a great year.”