Cubs

Cubs: Is Anibal Sanchez the right player at the right time?

962945.png

Cubs: Is Anibal Sanchez the right player at the right time?

All along, Theo Epstein said the Cubs were going to wait for the right player at the right time before making a splash in free agency.

That was the big idea when Epstein took on this rebuilding project some 14 months ago: The team president and his value-minded lieutenants in the front office would acquire as many talented young players as possible, enough core pieces that theyd feel comfortable buying the big-ticket item.

That appeared to be way off on the horizon until conflicting reports popped up across Twitter on Thursday. Within minutes, the Cubs were either close to signing Anibal Sanchez, or the pitcher had already agreed to a five-year, 75 million contract, or the negotiations were going back to the Detroit Tigers for the final chance to match.

Team officials remained silent, but an overall impression emerged: No done deal, with the waiting game going late into the night. USA Todays Bob Nightengale who broke the story before backtracking reported that talks would continue Friday morning.

This came from the blind side. There was said to be a sense of quiet at the Clark Street headquarters on Thursday morning, but this is why they want to keep such a tight lid on information.

Remember that the first piece added to the rotation this offseason was supposed to be Dan Haren until the Cubs had medicalfinancial concerns and pulled the plug on a trade with the Los Angeles Angels and held onto closer Carlos Marmol.

But the Cubs had already beaten the rush last month and signed two starting pitchers Scott Baker and Scott Feldman to one-year deals that matched up with all the other reasonable, incremental moves this front office had made with free agents.

While standing by the home dugout at Wrigley Field last week, surrounded by reporters during the Kyuji Fujikawa press event, general manager Jed Hoyer said the Cubs would continue to look for depth, but offered no hints they were close on a game-changer like Sanchez.

Were certainly not done, Hoyer said, but we certainly feel better about where we are looking at the offseason now. Were certainly not even halfway (in), but were really glad that we went in right away and added two starters in Baker and Feldman given the way the markets acted since. We feel like that (was) a wise move.

Well continue to try to add, but weve been building to be a little more discerning now, because we added two guys we wanted right away.

Those talking points plus the rising cost for free agents didnt suggest that the Cubs were going after perhaps the best pitcher on the board after Zack Greinke, who just got a six-year, 147 million contract from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In the battle for Los Angeles, the Angels swooped in on Thursday and landed Josh Hamilton with a five-year, 125 million contract. The Cubs were known to be opposed to that kind of megadeal. They didnt have to win headlines or fight for attention within their market. They dont particularly care what the fans or the media think.

But industry sources familiar with the teams thinking say dont focus so much on the price range just analyze whether its a smart long-term investment.

The Cubs go through those exercises all the time even last winter with Prince Fielder, who didnt make perfect sense and wound up getting a nine-year, 214 million deal with the Tigers.

Sanchez checks off many of the boxes Epstein and Hoyer talk about when they evaluate free agents. Hes on the right side of 30 and will turn 29 during spring training. They also must know something about his makeup, from their time together in the Boston Red Sox organization.

As Bostons co-general manager in 2005, Hoyer helped engineer a huge trade with the Florida Marlins while Epstein briefly left the organization and went on a sabbatical. Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez were among the Red Sox prospects heading to South Florida in exchange for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota.

Sanchez developed into a reliable middle-of-the-rotation piece with the Marlins and only enhanced his value after last summers trade to the Tigers. He performed on the big stage, going 1-2 with a 1.77 ERA in three postseason starts.

Sanchez has made at least 31 starts in each of the last three seasons, though he hasnt reached the 200-inning mark yet. His career numbers are solid if not spectacular a 48-51 record with a 3.75 ERA but the Cubs would be betting that hes just entering his prime.

Sanchez will come close to getting paid like an ace, but he wouldnt necessarily have to be one if the Opening Day rotation includes Jeff Samardzija, Matt Garza, Baker and Feldman. That would be an interesting way for the Cubs to start 2013 ahead of schedule.

It certainly got the attention of Garza, who posted this message on his Twitter account: I'm at the edge of my seat also with the Sanchez supposed deal... waiting.

SportsTalk Live Podcast: Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

cubs-stl-pod-525.jpg
USA TODAY

SportsTalk Live Podcast: Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

On this episode of SportsTalk Live, Fred Mitchell, Seth Gruen and Jason Goch join David Kaplan on the panel.

The Cubs bats come alive against the Giants while Theo says there have been plenty of trade rumors but no trade talks. Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

Plus, Ray Ratto joins Kap to talk about the Warriors struggles and the guys debate if LeBron is playing his final game in a Cavaliers uniform.

Listen to the full episode at this link or in the embedded player below:

The Cubs are ahead of the game in MLB's brand new world

The Cubs are ahead of the game in MLB's brand new world

"BINGO!"

Joe Maddon couldn't contain his glee as he was told there is actual scientific evidence that proves the Launch Angle Revolution has not had any impact on the uptick in homers over the last couple seasons.

The reason MLB players were hitting the ball into the bleachers more than ever before in 2017 was because of the way baseballs are made now, reducing the wind resistence and causing balls to carry more.

But all these players changing their swing path to get more lift on the ball? Not a thing for the group as a whole (h/t MLB.com):


But in analyzing Statcast™ data from the measurement tool's 2015 inception through 2017, the committee found no evidence that batter behavior, en masse, has been a contributing factor toward the homer surge. In fact, exit velocities decreased slightly from 2016 to 2017, spray angles from the time studied were stable and a small increase in launch angles was attributable primarily to, as the study refers to them, "players with lesser home run talents."

Basically, the long-ball surge was global, affecting players from all spectrums of homer-hitting ability and irrespective of their approach.

"Going into this, I thought that was going to be the magic bullet, the smoking gun," Nathan said. "But it wasn't."


Hence the "BINGO!" cry from Maddon, who has been very vocal in the fight against the Launch Angle Revolution this season.

The end result is the study will eventually lead to baseballs being returned to normal levels and a more uniform way of storing the balls moving forward. Thus, homers figure to eventually return to normal levels, too, and everybody who was caught up in the Launch Angle Revolution may be left behind.

It's the changing landscape of baseball and we've already seen the after-effects this year: April was the first month in MLB history where there were more strikeouts than basehits.

Why? Because strikeouts are a natural byproduct of the Launch Angle Revolution as players are swinging up on the ball more and sacrificing contact for power and lift.

That, coupled with an increase in velocity and higher usage of relievers, has led to more strikeouts.

It makes perfect sense — it's tougher for a player to try to catch up to 98+ mph at the top of the strike zone with an uppercut swing.

"It's one of those things that sounds good, but it doesn't help you," Maddon said of launch angle. "There's certain things that people really want to promote and talk about, but it doesn't matter. When a hitter's in the box, when you're trying to stare down 96 or a slider on the edge, the last thing you're thinking about is launch angle.

"Now when it comes to practice, you could not necessarily work on angles — your body works a certain way. Like I've said before, there's guys that might've been oppressively bad or they just had groundballs by rolling over the ball all the time So of course you may want to alter that to get that smothering kind of a swing out of him.

"But if you're trying to catch up to velocity, if you're trying to lay back and I could keep going on and on. It sounds good."

The idea of hitting the ball hard in the air has been around for decades in baseball, pretty much ever since Babe Ruth on some level. It just wasn't able to be quantified or accessed by the public as easily until Statcast came around and made it all mainstream.

The Cubs, however, have been anti-launch-angle to a degree this season. They let go of hitting coach John Mallee (who liked players to hit the ball in the air and pull it) and replaced him with Chili Davis (who teaches the full-field, line-drive approach).

The effects haven't yet yielded results in terms of consistently plating runs or having a better performance in the situational hitting column, but the contact rate is, in fact, up.

Here is the list of Cubs hitters who currently boast a career best mark in strikeout rate:

Kris Bryant
Javy Baez
Willson Contreras
Addison Russell
Jason Heyward
Kyle Schwarber

Even Ben Zobrist is very close to his career mark and Anthony Rizzo is right at his career line.

Some of that jump in contact rate can be attributed to natural development and maturation of young hitters, but the Cubs are buying into the new way of doing things and it's paying off.

It's also probably the way the game is going to shift, with an emphasis on contact going to become more important the less balls are flying out of the yard.

The Cubs have seen firsthand how to beat the best pitching in the postseason and they know that cutting down on strikeouts and "moving the baseball" (as Maddon likes to put it) can help manufacture runs in low-scoring, tight affairs in October.

Now science is supporting those theories and Major League Baseball teams will have to adjust. 

The Cubs, however, are at least a step ahead of the game.

It's a long game — the offensive strides will take time to fully take effect even for the Cubs, who are at least a full offseason and two months ahead of the curve in terms of bucking the Launch Angle Revolution.

Maddon concedes that launch angle is a cool stat to see on the video board after homers, but other than that, he doesn't see much of a use for it, pointing to Kyle Schwarber's laser-line-drive homers having the same effect as Kris Bryant's moonshots.

However, Maddon does believe there's a place for launch angle and exit velocity in the game, though mostly for front offices trying to acquire players (think "Moneyball").

"As a teaching tool, you either come equipped with or without," Maddon said. "It's like you buy a new car, you either got this or you don't. Sometimes you can add some things occasionally, but for the most part, this is what you are.

"I like inside the ball, top half of the ball, inner half of the ball, stay long throughout the ball, utilize the whole field. I still think that's the tried and true approach and I'm not stuck in the mud on this by any means.

"The harder pitchers throw the baseball, the more laying back is going to be less effective."