Cubs

Jake Arrieta knows the score with Cubs: ‘If I have to leave, I don’t want to leave without another ring’

Jake Arrieta knows the score with Cubs: ‘If I have to leave, I don’t want to leave without another ring’

BALTIMORE – Jake Arrieta didn’t throw a baseball while relaxing at home in Austin, Texas, during an All-Star break the Cubs absolutely needed.

Walking the streets of Baltimore this weekend triggered memories, seeing where he used to live (when he wasn’t getting shuttled back to Triple-A), eating at one of his favorite restaurants, interacting with old Orioles teammates and appreciating the classic look and feel of Camden Yards.

Jose Quintana arriving here on Friday pointed to the Cubs filling a big hole in their 2018, 2019 and 2020 rotations and moving in another direction once Arrieta becomes a free agent after this season.

All these forces – decompressing from an all-consuming game, reminders of the struggling pitcher a Cy Young Award winner used to be and the dominos falling from the Quintana trade with the White Sox – made it seem like a good time to think about Arrieta’s future and how this could be his last chance to make history (again) with the Cubs.

“If I have to leave, I don’t want to leave without another ring,” Arrieta said after Saturday night’s 10-3 win set Quintana up for the sweep on Sunday afternoon.

The Cubs have scored 19 runs in their first two games after the All-Star break, but any sustained momentum will revolve around starting pitching. Arrieta kept an American League lineup off-balance for 6.2 innings in a steamy, hitter-friendly park, mixing in his cutter and changeup while limiting the Orioles to two runs (one earned) in the kind of controlled, efficient performance the Cubs desperately need if they are going to break out of their 45-45 pattern and make up those 5.5 games against the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies in the division and wild-card races.

It doesn’t even have to be the Bob Gibson/Sandy Koufax/Dwight Gooden/Randy Johnson-esque push that catapulted the 2015 Cubs and transformed the franchise’s identity. It won’t be Max Scherzer money. But super-agent Scott Boras will get Arrieta paid for his raw stuff, durability, big-game performances and good clubhouse reputation.

“I would love to stay,” Arrieta said. “That would be cool. But if it doesn’t work out, that’s the nature of professional sports.

“We’re all on the same page here. Regardless of how we played the first half, that’s the end goal – to get back to the playoffs and then just have the chance to roll the dice and see what happens in October. And hopefully we get to play in November.”

Arrieta (9-7, 4.17 ERA) is starting to look more and more like the guy who beat the Cleveland Indians twice on the road during last year’s World Series. The thing is, Arrieta always thought he was The Man, even when he couldn’t stick in Baltimore.

“I joke with my friends,” Arrieta said. “I kind of tell them how I think I’m going to finish the second half. I don’t know if I’ll verbalize that to you guys, but I’m very confident.

“We didn’t perform the way we would like – all the way around – (in the first half). We expect better things from ourselves as a team overall. That’s the competitive nature of all these guys in this clubhouse. We want to get back to where we were last year. We want to get to the playoffs and have a shot to play into November again. It’s still within reach.”

SportsTalk Live Podcast: Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

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USA TODAY

SportsTalk Live Podcast: Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

On this episode of SportsTalk Live, Fred Mitchell, Seth Gruen and Jason Goch join David Kaplan on the panel.

The Cubs bats come alive against the Giants while Theo says there have been plenty of trade rumors but no trade talks. Do the Cubs need to make a deal?

Plus, Ray Ratto joins Kap to talk about the Warriors struggles and the guys debate if LeBron is playing his final game in a Cavaliers uniform.

Listen to the full episode at this link or in the embedded player below:

The Cubs are ahead of the game in MLB's brand new world

The Cubs are ahead of the game in MLB's brand new world

"BINGO!"

Joe Maddon couldn't contain his glee as he was told there is actual scientific evidence that proves the Launch Angle Revolution has not had any impact on the uptick in homers over the last couple seasons.

The reason MLB players were hitting the ball into the bleachers more than ever before in 2017 was because of the way baseballs are made now, reducing the wind resistence and causing balls to carry more.

But all these players changing their swing path to get more lift on the ball? Not a thing for the group as a whole (h/t MLB.com):


But in analyzing Statcast™ data from the measurement tool's 2015 inception through 2017, the committee found no evidence that batter behavior, en masse, has been a contributing factor toward the homer surge. In fact, exit velocities decreased slightly from 2016 to 2017, spray angles from the time studied were stable and a small increase in launch angles was attributable primarily to, as the study refers to them, "players with lesser home run talents."

Basically, the long-ball surge was global, affecting players from all spectrums of homer-hitting ability and irrespective of their approach.

"Going into this, I thought that was going to be the magic bullet, the smoking gun," Nathan said. "But it wasn't."


Hence the "BINGO!" cry from Maddon, who has been very vocal in the fight against the Launch Angle Revolution this season.

The end result is the study will eventually lead to baseballs being returned to normal levels and a more uniform way of storing the balls moving forward. Thus, homers figure to eventually return to normal levels, too, and everybody who was caught up in the Launch Angle Revolution may be left behind.

It's the changing landscape of baseball and we've already seen the after-effects this year: April was the first month in MLB history where there were more strikeouts than basehits.

Why? Because strikeouts are a natural byproduct of the Launch Angle Revolution as players are swinging up on the ball more and sacrificing contact for power and lift.

That, coupled with an increase in velocity and higher usage of relievers, has led to more strikeouts.

It makes perfect sense — it's tougher for a player to try to catch up to 98+ mph at the top of the strike zone with an uppercut swing.

"It's one of those things that sounds good, but it doesn't help you," Maddon said of launch angle. "There's certain things that people really want to promote and talk about, but it doesn't matter. When a hitter's in the box, when you're trying to stare down 96 or a slider on the edge, the last thing you're thinking about is launch angle.

"Now when it comes to practice, you could not necessarily work on angles — your body works a certain way. Like I've said before, there's guys that might've been oppressively bad or they just had groundballs by rolling over the ball all the time So of course you may want to alter that to get that smothering kind of a swing out of him.

"But if you're trying to catch up to velocity, if you're trying to lay back and I could keep going on and on. It sounds good."

The idea of hitting the ball hard in the air has been around for decades in baseball, pretty much ever since Babe Ruth on some level. It just wasn't able to be quantified or accessed by the public as easily until Statcast came around and made it all mainstream.

The Cubs, however, have been anti-launch-angle to a degree this season. They let go of hitting coach John Mallee (who liked players to hit the ball in the air and pull it) and replaced him with Chili Davis (who teaches the full-field, line-drive approach).

The effects haven't yet yielded results in terms of consistently plating runs or having a better performance in the situational hitting column, but the contact rate is, in fact, up.

Here is the list of Cubs hitters who currently boast a career best mark in strikeout rate:

Kris Bryant
Javy Baez
Willson Contreras
Addison Russell
Jason Heyward
Kyle Schwarber

Even Ben Zobrist is very close to his career mark and Anthony Rizzo is right at his career line.

Some of that jump in contact rate can be attributed to natural development and maturation of young hitters, but the Cubs are buying into the new way of doing things and it's paying off.

It's also probably the way the game is going to shift, with an emphasis on contact going to become more important the less balls are flying out of the yard.

The Cubs have seen firsthand how to beat the best pitching in the postseason and they know that cutting down on strikeouts and "moving the baseball" (as Maddon likes to put it) can help manufacture runs in low-scoring, tight affairs in October.

Now science is supporting those theories and Major League Baseball teams will have to adjust. 

The Cubs, however, are at least a step ahead of the game.

It's a long game — the offensive strides will take time to fully take effect even for the Cubs, who are at least a full offseason and two months ahead of the curve in terms of bucking the Launch Angle Revolution.

Maddon concedes that launch angle is a cool stat to see on the video board after homers, but other than that, he doesn't see much of a use for it, pointing to Kyle Schwarber's laser-line-drive homers having the same effect as Kris Bryant's moonshots.

However, Maddon does believe there's a place for launch angle and exit velocity in the game, though mostly for front offices trying to acquire players (think "Moneyball").

"As a teaching tool, you either come equipped with or without," Maddon said. "It's like you buy a new car, you either got this or you don't. Sometimes you can add some things occasionally, but for the most part, this is what you are.

"I like inside the ball, top half of the ball, inner half of the ball, stay long throughout the ball, utilize the whole field. I still think that's the tried and true approach and I'm not stuck in the mud on this by any means.

"The harder pitchers throw the baseball, the more laying back is going to be less effective."