Jon Lester breaks down Jose Quintana trade and where Cubs go from here

Jon Lester breaks down Jose Quintana trade and where Cubs go from here

BALTIMORE – Jon Lester decided to sign with a last-place Cubs team during the 2014 winter meetings, taking a leap of faith while still expecting to be in the pennant race every season on that six-year, $155 million megadeal.

As much as anyone in the clubhouse, Lester understands how team president Theo Epstein operates and what a huge hole there will be in the rotation if/when Jake Arrieta and John Lackey leave as free agents after this season.

That’s why “until 2020” jumped out at Lester after the initial shock from the blockbuster Jose Quintana trade with the White Sox wore off quickly.

“I know Theo,” Lester said before watching Arrieta shut down his old team during Saturday’s 10-3 win at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. “I know his track record. I know what he’s all about. That wasn’t going to go unaddressed.

“I was a little surprised that it happened now. Usually, a trade like that happens kind of last minute. So that’s good for us – we get those extra couple weeks with him here and get him comfortable.

“That’s probably a win-win for everybody. You don’t see trades where you don’t have to move houses. He’s pretty well-set and established, knows his way around the city. And now he’s just got to drive north instead of south.”

As much as Epstein made this deal for the future, the 2017 Cubs needed Quintana to: reinforce a rotation pushed through back-to-back playoff runs; protect an overworked bullpen; and change a clubhouse vibe that’s been off. Quintana can finish off a three-game sweep of the Orioles – and create a real sense of momentum for a .500 team – when he makes his Cubs debut on Sunday afternoon.

“Any time you make an acquisition, it’s a boost,” Lester said. “It just means that the front office and ownership believe in this team and they want us to go further. They think whatever piece it is (will) make us go.

“Any time you make a trade like that, obviously the belief is there. That just kind of gives you a little shot in the arm to say: ‘Hey, let’s get going and make this mean something.’

“As opposed to making a trade and you waste prospects for nothing, kind of like the (Aroldis) Chapman deal last year. If we don’t win the World Series, you waste prospects for basically nothing.”

Epstein made it clear that how the Cubs respond after the All-Star break will influence how aggressive he will be leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

[MORE: Joe Maddon knows it's time to start pushing Cubs harder - except Wade Davis

Selling isn’t an option, because the Cubs are still within striking distance of the Milwaukee Brewers in a bad division and have too much on-paper talent. There is real value in all these young players experiencing more meaningful games and building up that competitive culture.

But if the Cubs get hot, then Epstein can look harder at a veteran catcher, another reliever and a starting pitcher – Sonny Gray seems out of reach – instead of sitting out the deal-making frenzy.

“That’s on us to play well,” Lester said. “Whatever he decides that we need, we need. But at the same time, the guys in this clubhouse can’t worry about what’s going on up there and who’s talking about what.

“I was part of those talks for a long time as a young guy. And it can be distracting sometimes when you see your name on the bottom line or they’re talking about it on MLB (Network) saying a team put your name into this trade.

“Nine times out of 10, it’s not even true. I know that’s difficult for a young guy sometimes. But the biggest thing is, like I’ve always said: Man, just stay in your lane. Do your job. It’s not your pay grade to worry about what Theo does.”

Cubs Talk Podcast: Schwarber, Baez on night to remember at the Home Run Derby

Cubs Talk Podcast: Schwarber, Baez on night to remember at the Home Run Derby

On the latest Cubs Talk Podcast, Kelly Crull spoke with Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber after an electric and entertaining Home Run Derby in Washington D.C.

Listen to the full Cubs Talk Podcast right here:

Who Knew? Cubs at the All-Star Break

Who Knew? Cubs at the All-Star Break

With a break in the action, let’s take a look at the season so far.

Today, I’ll focus on the first 57.4% of the Cubs’ 2018 season. Which is to say, the 93 games before the All-Star Break. Clearly more than “half.”

In all seasons with an All-Star Game (1933-present, minus 1945)

This is the fifth time the Cubs have had the National League’s best record at the All-Star Break.

Here is the entire list (note – 2016 is NOT on this list. They trailed the Giants by 3 games at the Break in 2016):

1937 44-25 +2.0
1969 61-37 +5.0
2001 51-35 +0.5
2008 57-38 +4.5
2018 55-38 +2.5

Which is incredible since:

• Anthony Rizzo has a wRC+ of 100, which is league average

(he was at 131 – 31% better than league average - through the All-Star break last season)

• Kris Bryant has missed 23 games and has only 10 home runs

• The Cubs as a team have 30 fewer Home Runs through 93 games than they did last season

(100 this season, 130 last season)

• The Cubs have had six pitchers make 8 or more starts this season and only one (Jon Lester – 2.58) has an ERA under 3.90

• Cubs pitching has an MLBhigh walk percentage of 11.0%

(Tyler Chatwood’s 9 starts with 5 or more walks is most in a season by a Cubs pitcher since Dick Drott’s 13 in 1957)

• Cubs have outscored their opponents by only one run in the first inning (5251)

This includes being outscored 18-13 in the first inning in Kyle Hendricks’ 19 starts

• Cubs are 57 against the Reds

(they were 27-11 against Cincinnati in 2016-17)

That being said, it's not so incredible since...

• The Cubs have scored at least 10 runs 15 times this season. No other team has done it more than 12 times.

• Jason Heyward has a wRC+ of 109 (he’s 9% better than league average)

This is notable because in 2016 he was at 71 (29% worse than league average) and 88 in 2017 (12% worse than league average).

• The Cubs have EIGHT qualified players with at least a .340 OnBase pct. (and Ian Happ, who is eight PA short of qualifying, is at .379)

The only qualified Cub with a SUB-.340 OBP is Javier Báez (.326 – a career-high). However…

• Javier Báez has 50 extrabase hits in 91 games. Last season he had 49 extra-base hits in 145 games.

Báez is the first player in Cubs history with 15 Doubles, 5 Triples, 15 HR and 15 Stolen Bases before the All-Star Break**.

Báez is the first player in MLB history with 18 Doubles, 6 Triples, 18 HR and 18 Stolen Bases before the All-Star Break**.

**seasons with an All-Star Game – 1933-present (minus 1945)