Cubs

Jon Lester delivered for Cubs in Year 1 of megadeal

jon-lester-absolutely-delivered-insider-slide.png

Jon Lester delivered for Cubs in Year 1 of megadeal

Jon Lester’s World-Series-or-bust mentality softened at the end of this unreal season.

Lester had been signed for the parade down Michigan Avenue, and fair or not, that’s how his time in Chicago will be ultimately judged. But after the New York Mets swept the Cubs out of the National League Championship Series, Lester stood at his locker and looked at the bigger picture.

“You can only take positives (from this),” Lester said inside Wrigley Field’s home clubhouse. “And I would hope that everybody in here harps on the positives (and) thinks about all the good things we did this year, all the strides that we made to get to this point. It’s hard to get to this point.”

Momentum can shift so fast in this game – the unbeatable Mets entered this weekend at Citi Field down 0-2 to the Kansas City Royals in the World Series – but Lester is anchored here through at least the 2020 season with full no-trade rights.

[RELATED - After tough season, Javier Baez expects big things in 2016]

To get back to this point, the Cubs will need more than Lester and Jake Arrieta at the top of their rotation, and pitching will be the No. 1 priority for Theo Epstein’s front office this winter.

Lester understood that $155 million would follow him for the rest of his career, and he wouldn’t get defensive when the Chicago media pointed out his salary, “the yips” and how much he means to the rise of this franchise.

You didn’t have to look too far beneath the surface or dig too deep into the numbers to see that Lester lived up to his end of the bargain in Year 1, even with a losing record (11-12) on a 97-win team.

Lester finished with a 3.34 ERA and set the franchise’s new single-season record for strikeouts by a lefty (207). He made 30-plus starts for the eighth straight year and put up more than 200 innings for the seventh time in his career. His WHIP (1.122) and Fielding Independent Pitching (2.92) only trailed his outstanding 2014 walk year with the Boston Red Sox and Oakland A’s.

Lester also admitted it was an up-and-down season that didn’t leave him completely satisfied. The newness for such a routine-obsessed pitcher and that “dead arm” in spring training probably contributed to a 6.23 ERA in April. 

[RELATED - Unfinished business: Epstein built Cubs into World Series contender in Year 4]

Lester got distracted when he looked over to first base and had trouble replicating the throws he could make in practice, leaving him vulnerable at times in the running game, even when he varied his times to home plate and threw thinly veiled pitchouts. 

Opponents stole more bases off Lester (44) than any other pitcher in the majors. Even if that’s like a strong NFL defense that gives up chunks of yardage while minimizing points, it will become a point of emphasis again in Mesa, Arizona.

“I probably didn’t pitch to the full (level) I expected to pitch this year,” Lester said. “But I’ll go into the offseason and work on the things I need to work on, and come back to spring training ready to go. And, hopefully, get off to a better start than I did this year. Hopefully, we won’t have any setbacks.”  

The Cubs also lost both of Lester’s playoff starts, and while he didn’t pitch poorly, he also didn’t quite live up to his reputation as a big-game performer.

Still, no regrets: The Cubs and Lester would do this megadeal all over again. (But it might take closer to – or north of – $200 million to land David Price.)

“I never look back,” Lester said. “Regardless of what the outcome was this year – if we won the World Series or if we finished out of the playoff race – we spent a lot of time making sure that this was the right decision.

“Obviously, I came here to try to win a World Series. We came up a little short this year. But regardless of the outcome of this year, (it’s) been nothing but a pleasure to play here (and) be a part of this community.”

[SHOP CUBS: Get your Cubs gear right now]

Chicago can be a strange place for a big-name free agent – and eventually Lester will hit a wall and begin the decline phase of this contract – but the Cubs should feel good about the direction this is heading in Year 2.

“There is obviously a different comfort level now than there was then,” Lester said. “This clubhouse is really tight. I feel like everybody feels like family. Everybody pulls for each other. It’s still the cliché of great chemistry and all that stuff, (but) I do believe this clubhouse is a special clubhouse.

“It’s been a fun year to see (how the fans have) embraced us as a team in the city. It’s just been a great year for us all, (and) especially (for me) being able to kind of relax a little bit more and settle in and call Chicago home.”

Maybe the early exit was just what the Cubs needed

Maybe the early exit was just what the Cubs needed

A year ago, the Cubs world was in essentially the exact same place — trying to find answers for a season that ended earlier than expected.

There was only one difference: Time.

The 2018 Cubs woke up on the morning of Oct. 22 having been out of action almost three full weeks. That's a long time in terms of decompressing, letting your body heal and evaluating what went wrong.

A year ago today, Ben Zobrist was in the midst of trying to heal his ailing wrist after a third straight trip deep into the postseason.

A year ago today, Theo Epstein was roughly 48 hours removed from his annual end-of-season eulogy.

A year ago today, Kris Bryant was trying to catch his breath after what he called the most draining campaign of his life.

Yet we woke up Monday morning 19 full days removed from the latest iteration of Epstein's end-of-season eulogy, Zobrist is making light-hearted Instagram videos and Bryant is already nearly three weeks into the process of letting his left shoulder heal completely and adding strength.

Of course, that trio of Cubs figures would gladly trade in these extra few weeks of time off for another shot at the NL pennant, even if they fell short in the NLCS again.

Still, there's a lot of value in extra time off, especially after three straight falls where they went deep into October playing high-stress baseball. The Cubs absolutely will go in 2019 much fresher than they went into this year's spring training.

For example, Jon Lester threw 8.1 fewer innings this October than 2017 and 29.2 fewer innings than 2016. Zobrist played 8 fewer games this October than 2018 and 16 fewer than 2016 (he also won the World Series in 2015 as a member of the Kansas City Royals). That matters when players' ages start creeping up into the mid-to-late 30s.

It shouldn't take the sting out of the disappointing end to 2018 for the Cubs or their fans, but extra time off for these guys is certainly not a bad thing. 

The Cubs have already gotten the ball rolling on offseason changes, including replacing Chili Davis at hitting coach with Anthony Iapoce

On top of that, each individual player has now had enough time to evaluate why or how they went wrong offensively down the stretch.

"A full winter — especially this extra month that we unfortunately have — is a luxury in baseball," Epstein said. "There are things that come up all the time during the course of the season with teams and with individual players that you say, 'We'd love to address.' But that's so hard to address during the season because there's always another game tomorrow. 

"Guys are surviving. We have to wait 'til the offseason, then we can get right physically, then we can wade into the mental game, then we can address this swing change, then we can handle this fundamental. Well, we now have that luxury — unfortunately — of a full offseason. How do we take full advantage of this so we're never in this position again?

"We don't want to be a part of an offensive collapse in the second half again. We don't want to be part of losing a division lead late again. We don't want to be part of looking back and recognizing that, gosh, maybe a greater sense of urgency from Game 1 through 162 would've led to one more game and then we're still playing. We don't want to be part of that ever again, so we need to make good use of this time."

The early exit also helps to create a chip on the shoulder for each member of the organization. It's hard to see the Cubs spending much time in 2019 lacking the same "urgency" they had this summer. The painful NL Wild-Card loss will leave a bad taste in their mouths that can carry over all the way until next October. 

Like Lester said, sometimes you "need to get your dick knocked in the dirt in order to appreciate where you're at." 

We saw that play out on the North Side of Chicago from 2015 into 2016 and Cole Hamels has seen this script before with a young core of players in Philadelphia.

In 2007, the Phillies made the playoffs, but were swept out of the NLDS by the Colorado Rockies. They rebounded to win the World Series the next fall over Joe Maddon's Tampa Bay Rays.

"That [2007 sweep] really kind of taught us what the postseason experience was and what it was to not just play to the end of the season and instead to play to the end of the postseason," Hamels said. "This is a tremendous experience for a lot of guys and you have to go through the hardships before you get to enjoy the big moments.

"I know there's a lot of players here that have won a World Series, but there's also a lot that didn't have that sort of participation that you would kind of look towards, so I think this is great for them. 

"It's exciting to see what they're gonna be able to do next year and the year after that because this is a tremendous team here with the talent that they have. It's gonna be a great couple years."

Should the Cubs bring Daniel Murphy back in 2019?

Should the Cubs bring Daniel Murphy back in 2019?

With MLB Hot Stove season about 10 days away, Cubs fans are on the edge of their seats waiting to see how Theo Epstein's front office will reshape an underperforming lineup this winter.

The first step in that will be determining if there is a future with Daniel Murphy in Chicago and if so, what that future might entail. 

Murphy's introduction to the North Side fanbase was rocky, but he drew rave reviews from his teammates and coaches for how he conducted himself in the month-and-a-half he wore a Cubs uniform. 

He also filled a serious hole in the Cubs lineup, hitting .297 with an .800 OPS in 35 games (138 at-bats) while spending most of his time in the leadoff spot, helping to set the tone. Extrapolating Murphy's Cubs tenure over 550 plate appearances, it would be good for 23 homers, 86 runs, 49 RBI and 23 doubles over a full season. That would be worth 3.4 WAR by FanGraphs' measure, which would've ranked third on the Cubs among position players in 2018 behind only Javy Baez (5.3 WAR) and Ben Zobrist (3.6). (By comparison, Baseball Reference rated Murphy a -0.2 WAR player with the Cubs due to a much worse rating on defense.) 

Murphy's performance defensively at second base left quite a bit to be desired, but it's also worth pointing out he had major surgery on his right knee last fall. The procedure wasn't just a cleanup — he had microfracture surgery and cartilage debridement and wasn't able to return to the field until the middle of June this summer despite an Oct. 20, 2017 surgery.

The Cubs will begin the 2019 season without a clear, everyday choice at second base and the lineup can use a guy like Murphy, who has a great approach each time up and leads baseball with a .362 batting average with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2016 season.

So could a reunion be in the cards?

"I wouldn't rule anything out," Epstein said the day after the Cubs' 2018 campaign ended prematurely. "It was a pleasure having Daniel here. He did a lot to right our offense right after he got here and contribute while being asked to play a bigger role than we envisioned when we got him because of some other injuries, because of our lack of performance offensively and then because of the schedule. He was asked to play a lot more than expected, than probably he was ready to based on the proximity to his knee surgery.

"So I think he's gonna have a real beneficial offseason, get even stronger and be ready to contribute next year. Which league that's in and for what team remains to be seen. But I certainly think he acquitted himself well here, was REALLY respected by his teammates. Our guys loved talking hitting with him. It was a daily occurrence. Long discussions about hitting with him, picking his brain. 

"We look a lot better with him than without him, so I wouldn't rule anything out."

There's a lot to unpack here. Epstein was refreshingly honest throughout his whole press conference and that continued with regards to Murphy.

For starters, notice how Epstein first said he wasn't sure "what league" Murphy will be playing in. The Cubs president of baseball operations is typically extremely measured when speaking with the public and he almost never says anything by accident.

Murphy will turn 34 April 1 and was never renowned as an elite fielder even before that major knee surgery. Meaning: The writing has been on the wall for over a year that the veteran may be best suited for a designated hitter role with his new contract and Epstein is clearly well aware of that perception/narrative.

The other aspect of Epstein's comments is how he began and ended his statement on Murphy — that he wouldn't rule anything out and the Cubs obviously thought it was a successful pairing.

It's hard to argue with that on the offensive side of things and his impact was also felt off the field, where he was praised often by his teammates and coaches for talking hitting with younger players like Ian Happ and David Bote. 

Imagine how the final 6 weeks of the season would've looked had the Cubs not acquired Murphy in the middle of August to agument the lineup. The Brewers would've probably nabbed the division lead well before a Game 163.

Still, Murphy's hitting prowess both on and off the field wasn't enough to help the Cubs lineup avoid a slide that led to a date with the couch before the NLDS even began. Epstein's statement about how the Cubs "look a lot better" with Murphy than without is probably more about how fresh the sting was from the inept offense that managed just 2 runs scored in 22 innings in the final two games of the season.

Given his consistency the last few years, his advanced approach at the plate and his (recent) unrivaled ability to come through in key spots, Murphy's bat would be a welcome addition to any Cubs lineup moving forward. 

But it would still be tough to fit Murphy on the Cubs' 2019 roster for a variety of reasons. 

For starters, if the Cubs truly have a desire to write out a more consistent lineup next year, it's tough to add another aging veteran to a mix that already includes Ben Zobrist (who will be 38 next year), especially when they both spend a majority of their time at the same position (second base) and shouldn't be considered everyday players at this stage in their respective careers.

Murphy's defense/range also doesn't figure to get much better as he ages — even with an offseason to get his knee back up to 100 percent health — and second base is a key spot for run prevention, especially in turning double plays with a pitching staff that induces a lot of contact and groundballs.

Offensively, Murphy isn't perfect, either. He's never walked much, but in 2018, he posted his lowest walk rate since 2013. He also struck out 15.7 percent of the time in a Cubs uniform and while that's a small sample size, it still represents his highest K% since his rookie 2008 season (18.5 percent). 

Then there's the splits — the left-handed Murphy hit just .238 with a .564 OPS vs. southpaws in 2018, a far cry from the .319 average and .864 OPS he posted against right-handed pitchers. That was a steep drop-off from the previous three seasons (2015-17), in which he put up a .296 average and .810 OPS against lefties.

Add it all up and Murphy's potential fit with the 2019 Cubs is questionable at best, especially if an American League team hands him more money and years to come DH for them and hit near the top of their order.

But like Epstein said, don't rule anything out.