White Sox

Can the Sox contend, Part 2: Dunn's rebound

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Can the Sox contend, Part 2: Dunn's rebound

In part one of this all-hope-is-not-lost series, we looked at how the Sox rotation will set up nicely if Jake Peavy can stay relatively healthy in 2012. Some may think keeping Peavy fresh is a daunting task, but perhaps not as much as the next key to a run at the division next year:

Get Adam Dunn back on track.

Dunn fell into the abyss last year after a decade of consistent tater-mashing, hitting fewer home runs (11) than in any season of his career -- including his 66-game rookie campaign. He was only a handful of at-bats away from posting the lowest single-season batting average in the history of Major League Baseball. And he was rated by FanGraphs as the worst player in the majors by a wide, wide margin.

So what reasons are there to think that Dunn can do much of anything in 2012?

The best statistical argument is that Dunn will experience a simple regression to the mean next season. That is to say, his 2011 season will continue to stand as an outlier. Even now, it's an outlier on Dunn's career trajectory, one that could still have Dunn angling for a Hall of Fame bid.

In plenty of cases, those outlier seasons remain just that -- outliers. Just ask Brady Anderson's 50 home runs in 1996 or Paul Konerko's .704 OPS in 2003. Sometimes, though, an seemingly innocuous outlier turns into a trend, either for good (Jose Bautista) or bad (Richie Sexson).

From a non-statistical standpoint, there are a few things working in Dunn's favor for next season. A new manager and hitting coach can't hurt. An entire offseason to clear his head should help as well. And now that he has a full year of DH'ing under his belt, perhaps Dunn will enter 2012 with a better plan of attack toward the mental aspect of not playing the field.

Consider how different the 2012 White Sox lineup could look like with a mildly successful (we're not talking about 40 home runs and a .380 OBP, think more like 25 home runs and a .340 OBP) Dunn hitting in the middle:

3. Paul Konerko 3. Paul Konerko
4. Adam Dunn 4. Dayan Viciedo
5. Dayan Viciedo 5. Alexei Ramirez? Alex Rios? A.J. Pierzynski?

Essentially, the team's No. 5 hitter -- one of the most important run-producing positions in the lineup -- goes from a hitter with enormous power potential to a handful of low-OBP guys with varying amounts of less-than-15-home-runs-per-season power. It's like replacing a potentially good No. 5 hitter with a bat more suited to hit seventh. That amounts to a huge difference when it comes to supporting a pitching staff.

2012 will be the most important season of Dunn's career. It's his chance to save his legacy and stay on Cooperstown's radar. It's also a chance for him to redeem himself with the White Sox -- because if performs well, maybe, just maybe, the Sox can make some noise in the AL Central.

If the White Sox success next season in pinned on Adam Dunn, that makes you _________. But before defaulting to responding with "horrified," at least consider the optimist's viewpoint.

James McCann leads charge for White Sox in running for starting spots in MLB All-Star Game

James McCann leads charge for White Sox in running for starting spots in MLB All-Star Game

Major League Baseball released a second voting update for All-Star Game starters and three White Sox players are still in the mix.

The top three spots at each position (and top nine in the outfield) are all that matter for now, with those players advancing to MLB’s new Starters Election. James McCann is the only member of the White Sox to sit in one of those spots for now.

McCann is second at catcher behind Gary Sanchez of the Yankees. He is nearly 800,000 votes behind the Yankees backstop.

Jose Abreu was in third in the last update at first base, but has fallen behind Carlos Santana of the Indians. Luke Volt, another Yankee, leads with C.J. Cron of the Twins in second. Santana is just under 43,000 votes ahead of Abreu.

Tim Anderson is still in fourth at shortstop. Jorge Polanco of the Twins and Carlos Correa of the Astros are comfortably in the top two spots. Gleyber Torres, yet another Yankee, is just over 45,000 votes ahead of Anderson for third.

There aren’t any other White Sox within striking distance of the top three. Yoan Moncada remains in eighth among third basemen.

Polls close Friday at 3 p.m. CT.

 

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Breaking down Eloy Jimenez's improvement

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USA TODAY

Breaking down Eloy Jimenez's improvement

When Eloy Jiménez returned from the Injured List in late May and rejoined the White Sox lineup, he went on the road to Houston and Minnesota and he struggled to the tune of a .148 batting average and .148 on-base percentage, with four hits (three went over the fence), 11 strikeouts and no walks.

For the season, his slashline was .217/.259/.406 with five walks and 36 strikeouts. He was swinging at 49.8 percent of all the pitches he saw (a bit above the 46.7 percent league average); he was swinging at 38.8 percent of pitches outside the zone (quite a bit above the 30.9 percent league average).

He returned to the comfort of Guaranteed Rate Field on May 27 and took a pair of walks. From that point forward, things started to look a lot better… and the results were in line with that observation.

Eloy Jiménez this season:

  PA AVG OBP SLG BB K Swing % Outside zone swing %
Through May 26 112 ,217 .259 .406 5 36 49.8 38.8
Since May 27 71 .297 .366 .594 7 18 45.9 30.8

Not only has he improved quite a bit, but that 30.8 outside the zone swing percentage is second only to Yonder Alonso’s 29.9 percent mark among White Sox with at least 40 plate appearances since May 27. Jiménez hasn’t been chasing nearly as many bad pitches lately.

Those pitches he has been laying off of have for the most part been the low and away stuff, as indicated by his swing charts below. First, his swing rates before getting hurt and then since he came back from injury.

These charts are from the catcher’s perspective, and from what you can see, he has done a much better job of laying off the low and away pitches. Look at the three zones furthest low and away. There’s a big difference.

Start of the year through May 26:

Since May 27:

Through May 26 he swung at 33.8 percent of pitches (51 of 151)  low and away and out of the zone. Since May 27 he has swung at 14.5 percent of those pitches (10 of 69).

It’s only an 18-game sample, so there will certainly be more adjustments made to combat Jiménez, but I believe we’re watching Eloy begin to mature into the middle of the order force as he was advertised.

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