White Sox

John Danks' best start comes at critical time for White Sox

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John Danks' best start comes at critical time for White Sox

The White Sox didn’t have to pull the rip cord Sunday afternoon and deploy the emergency parachute, which in this analogy would’ve been Hector Noesi or Jose Quintana.

Against the backdrop of a taxed bullpen from Saturday’s doubleheader, John Danks turned in seven innings of one-run ball in the White Sox 4-3 walk-off win over Cincinnati Sunday afternoon. Long relievers Scott Carroll and Carlos Rodon were unavailable after combining to throw 10 2/3 innings Saturday, while lefty Dan Jennings labored through 39 ineffective pitches in a ninth-inning meltdown in the first game of the doubleheader.

So if Danks were lit up — as he was over 2 1/3 innings against Minnesota in his last start — the White Sox might’ve been forced to use Noesi after he threw 1 2/3 innings before exiting Game 1 Saturday due to a lower back contusion. Sunday was Quintana’s bullpen day, too, which could’ve turned into actual game action in relief if necessary.

[MORE: Gordon Beckham bails out Robertson as White Sox walk off Reds]

The preferred, and probably necessary, option was for Danks to have just the start he did.

“I like knowing that it’s your game when you’re out there,” Danks said. “Obviously performance dictates how long you’re in the game but go out there for a while and give us a chance to win.”

Danks scattered six hits and three walks, with Cincinnati’s damage off him coming on Devin Mesoraco’s RBI triple in the fourth. He held the top of the Reds’ order — Billy Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, Joey Votto and Todd Frazier — to just two walks and no hits in 12 plate appearances.

“We knew he was going to go out there for around 105 to 120 pitches,” manager Robin Ventura said. “It was big. You saw him today, he was mixing in a little bit, you probably saw a little speeding up on guys and the quick movement. He was just trying to create some deception and it worked for him. He was around the zone, he was throwing strikes. We needed that today more than any day.”

[NBC SHOP: Gear up, White Sox fans!]

Not only did Danks mix his fastball and changeup effectively, but he worked at a quick tempo and threw a few Reds hitters off with it. In one instance, Danks quick-pitched Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips, who was still twirling his bat in his pre-stance routine as the pitch whizzed into Tyler Flowers’ mitt for a strike.

It was Danks’ longest start of the year by a full inning and his third quality start in six games. The 118 pitches he threw were his highest total since July 2, 2014. Sunday was the first time in 2015 Danks threw more than 100 pitches, too.

“We’ve been trying to do certain things just to give me a better chance,” Danks said. “Messing up timing’s one of them. I think it’s very effective. We’re going to continue to work on things but it’s basically doing whatever you gotta do to get that guy out and fortunately it worked.”

After White Sox bullpen shuts down Twins, who's in and who's out for 2020?

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USA TODAY

After White Sox bullpen shuts down Twins, who's in and who's out for 2020?

The White Sox bullpen did a splendid job Wednesday night.

A “bullpen day” against the Minnesota Twins’ high-powered offense had potential disaster written all over it. Instead, Ivan Nova and a parade of relievers held those Twins hitless through five innings and to just one run in a sweep-avoiding win.

It’s actually the second time a “bullpen day” went better than expected against one of the best teams in baseball, Wednesday’s effort joining the one back in May against the Houston Astros. The White Sox lost that night but gave up just three runs to the kings of the AL West.

While nearly every pitcher that trotted out from the visitors’ bullpen Wednesday night in Minnesota pitched well, it doesn’t mean that the White Sox will carry this exact unit into a 2020 season that could be one in which they make the long awaited transition from rebuilding to contending.

Certainly Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer have been among the many bright spots for the White Sox this season, and the retention of both at the trade deadline provides confidence in what the back end of the bullpen can be in a potentially contending season. But while the eighth- and ninth-inning jobs are easily projected, what does the rest of the White Sox bullpen look like heading into 2020?

While starting pitcher is definitely on the winter wish list for Rick Hahn’s front office, it would be no shock to see relief pitching get addressed, too. It’s hard to predict which of the tons of relievers could wind up in a White Sox uniform before the team heads to Arizona for spring training. But we can try to guess at the fortunes of the relief arms currently on the roster, many of whom appeared in Wednesday night’s game.

Late-inning arms for 2020

Even if the White Sox make no additions to their bullpen this winter, the back end is pretty easy to project.

Colome has one more year of team control after being acquired in a trade with the Seattle Mariners last winter. He’s been allowing more base runners as the season has wound down — including a walk-off homer to Omar Narvaez, the guy he was traded for, last weekend in Seattle — but he’ll finish the campaign with excellent numbers, still having blown only one save. That’s the best save percentage in baseball. He’s got 124 saves over the last four seasons.

Bummer, meanwhile, has emerged from a host of internal candidates to grab a pretty tight hold on the eighth-inning job. He has a 2.31 ERA on the season with a week and a half to play, and he’s a guy who could be a back-end reliever and a potential closer for years to come.

As for other late-inning guys, Jimmy Cordero seems to be a diamond in the rough uncovered in season. He’s got a 3.34 ERA since joining the White Sox and has been an oft-used arm by Rick Renteria. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the White Sox put even more high-leverage situations on his plate next season.

Evan Marshall, too, figures to be back next season. He was another quality addition to the ‘pen, and he’s actually been better in the second half, with a 2.59 ERA since the All-Star break compared to the still-very-good 2.86 ERA before it.

Is that a fearsome foursome at the back end of a contending bullpen? Certainly all four of those guys have been good to very good this season. The White Sox would probably express a great deal of confidence in that quartet, but adding another late-inning arm to that mix in free agency would make that confidence level even higher.

What do you do with these guys?

If those four are very likely to be in key spots in the 2020 bullpen, what about some of the guys’ whose futures aren’t so obvious?

Jace Fry threw 1.2 innings without giving up a run Wednesday, dropping his season ERA to 4.96. That’s not a very pretty number, and there have been stretches this season that haven’t been very pretty, either. In a five-outing span in late May and early June, he walked six of the 19 batters he faced and gave up four earned runs in just 3.1 innings. Over a 13-outing span in August and September, Fry gave up 12 runs in 10.2 innings, walking nine and giving up 13 hits to the 53 batters he faced. But the White Sox love Fry’s potential. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him a part of the Opening Day relief corps. But if the White Sox are in contention mode, how long could they afford his inconsistencies?

Kelvin Herrera is almost certain to be back in 2020, considering the White Sox inked him to a two-year deal last offseason. But he’s going to need to improve dramatically from what he did in his first campaign on the South Side. He’s got a 6.51 ERA right now in 53 appearances. That’s obviously not good enough, and the White Sox will be hoping for something close to the kind of guy who mowed them down when he was a key piece on those back-to-back World Series teams for the Kansas City Royals. Another season removed from the foot injury that ended his 2018 season early ought to help.

Have the White Sox seen enough of Jose Ruiz and Carson Fulmer? Again, these guys have upside the team is excited about. Ruiz can throw the ball pretty hard, and Fulmer is a former top-10 draft pick. But the results have not been good, to say the least. Ruiz has a 5.87 ERA in 39 games. Fulmer, who threw 2.1 scoreless innings Wednesday, has a 5.33 ERA in 18 big league appearances. If there are free-agent additions to be had, these two could be squeezed out of the picture. But for right now, the White Sox aren’t done with them just yet.

Where art thou, minor leaguers?

If you cast your mind back to last season, you’ll remember a bunch of young arms that looked like candidates for the bullpen of the future. For various reasons, those guys didn’t do much impressing in 2019.

Injuries are to blame in certain cases. Ryan Burr was one of the many White Sox pitchers to have Tommy John surgery this season, wiping out an audition of a 2019 season for him. Ian Hamilton was similarly knocked out for the year with a pair of freak injuries. He was hurt in a car accident during spring training and then suffered a number of grisly facial injuries when he was struck with a foul ball while sitting in the dugout at Triple-A Charlotte.

Under-performance struck, too. Caleb Frare only made 31 combined appearances between the majors and Charlotte, but he posted a 10.13 ERA at the big league level and a 7.66 ERA with the Knights. Thyago Vieira had a 10.29 ERA in six major league games and a 6.27 ERA in 39 games at Triple-A.

But all four remain on the 40-man roster, for now.

Then there are three other guys who were highly thought of a year ago who didn’t help their cases for a major league promotion. Zack Burdi, the former first-round pick, was routinely rocked pitching in only 20 games at Class A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham, with a 6.75 ERA in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Johnson had good numbers but only pitched 31.1 innings in 22 games. Zach Thompson had a 5.23 ERA in his 45 appearances with Brimingham and Charlotte.

None of that screams must-include pieces of the 2020 major league bullpen. A lot can change between now and Opening Day, as well as now and any later point in the season when reinforcements to the relief corps could still make a big difference. But as we stand here right now, it’s hard to say any of these guys will be in the Opening Day ‘pen.

Unlikely bullpen arms?

The other internal options for relief arms in 2020 might come from an unlikely spot: the starting rotation.

There are only five spots on the 2020 starting staff, and Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease figure to have three of them spoken for. The White Sox will make at least one offseason addition, speaking for a fourth spot. And despite a bumpy 2019 season, it would not be surprising to see Reynaldo Lopez in that rotation, too, come Opening Day.

That doesn’t mean he’ll stay there all season, though. A contending White Sox team might not be able to put up with the kind of inconsistent results Lopez has delivered in 2019. Similarly, there’s a possibility Kopech could have to start the season in the minor leagues if the White Sox think he needs more time to work himself into game shape following a long layoff while recovering from his Tommy John surgery. Whether it’s multiple offseason acquisitions or simply Kopech returning and claiming a spot, Lopez might be squeezed out, in which case the bullpen would be a possible destination for him. The White Sox see him as a starter now, but there’s no reason that a squeezed-out Lopez, should it happen, couldn’t still help the team from the ‘pen.

Also, what becomes of other Tommy John recoverers when they return to full health? What happens if Carlos Rodon or Dane Dunning or Jimmy Lambert is available late in the year? Could they help in the bullpen even if they’re destined to be long-term starters? Maybe. It’s just speculation, but time will tell.

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Was Lucas Giolito's 2019 a fluke? One stat-based projection system says not at all

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USA TODAY

Was Lucas Giolito's 2019 a fluke? One stat-based projection system says not at all

The White Sox had a number of key players in the team’s young core show positive growth in 2019.

Despite heading toward what looks like another 90-plus loss season, the strides Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito made this season revitalized hope for the future of the White Sox.

In an early review of the White Sox season, FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski compared preseason projections to the nearly-finished product.

Giolito’s season, which ended two weeks early due to a lat strain, featured an All-Star Game appearance and improvement across the board. Giolito finished with a 3.41 ERA with 228 strikeouts and 57 walks in 176 2/3 innings. 

That level of performance wasn’t considered in the realm of possibility by Szymborski’s own ZiPS (sZymborski Projection System), which predicts future production based on stats. Szymborski calls Giolito’s 2019 projection among the worst in the system’s history.

“ZiPS was a ginormous digital fan of Giolito as a prospect, but fell completely out of love in 2018, turned off as you would be if your dining companion on a first date mostly wanting to describe the details of their colonoscopy,” he wrote. “A Cy Young-level season from Giolito was past the 99th percentile; it was closer to the 99.9th percentile.”

A deeper dive into his numbers show no reason for regression either. Updated ZiPS projections for the next four years show the system has bought back into Giolito.

As the White Sox hope to take a next step forward in the team’s rebuild in 2020, most of the talk is about the team’s young players adding quality to the team and continuing to improve. For example, Eloy Jimenez is on track for a 30-home run rookie season, but still hasn’t consistently shown the all-around hitter most expect him to be. However, one big thing that can’t be taken for granted is players like Giolito, Anderson and Moncada at least maintaining their impressive 2019 seasons. At least there is reason for optimism that Giolito’s 2019 is no fluke.

 

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