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The Daily Line Podcast: The Bears head into week 10 as 6.5-point favorites

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NBC Sports Chicago

The Daily Line Podcast: The Bears head into week 10 as 6.5-point favorites

The Bears head into Week 10 as 6.5-point favorites against the Lions. Sam Panayotovich of VSIN and Joe Ostrowski of the Early Odds podcast join Paul Aspan and Ryan McGuffey to discuss why that line looks like too many points for the Bears (3:15).

Plus, we look into the future to see how Vegas would handicap an NFC title game between the Bears and the top teams in the NFC, the Rams and the Saints (13:00).

The guys make their weekly picks (16:00) and what are the chances that baseball’s biggest free agent lands in Chicago (27:00)?

Listen to the full episode at this link or in the embedded player below:

The Daily Line: Week 9 Football Picks

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NBC Sports Chicago

The Daily Line: Week 9 Football Picks

The best pieces of advice I can give you are: #1 Don’t bet what you can’t afford #2 If it feels too good to be true, it probably is. And #3 If it feels ugly when you place it, good. Other than that, let’s have some fun and hopefully have some success along the way.

YTD record: 23-11 against the spread (13-5 in last 18)

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings 11/4 - 12:00pm CT

Line: Vikings -5 
Betting Percentages Split: 76% of the tickets on the VIkings
The play: Lions +5

The last two weeks were two of the best weeks in recent memory for public players betting NFL games. Last weekend was the first losing Sunday/Monday of the year for Vegas. Call me crazy, but this trend will not continue. I love this week to be a spot that swings back in the contrarian direction and rewards players who hold their nose to make these picks. So, why not start with a game that makes absolutely 0 sense. Lions +5 on the road in the Minnesota. In fact, this line actually opened at +6 in many places but has since moved to +5 despite HEAVY public action on the Vikings. What does that tell you? Pros are betting the Lions heavy. People tend to overreact to single player acquisitions in the NFL and they rarely influence the outcome of single games. The trading of Golden Tate was not because the Lions are tanking, but instead because they weren’t going to re-sign him and wanted to get some value in return. Fade the public and take the Lions. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns 11/4 - 12:00pm CT

Line: Chiefs -9
Betting Percentages Split: 85% of tickets on Chiefs 
The play: Browns +9

Remember what I said about holding your nose? Well, here we go. We are betting the Browns, and honestly, I love this spot. The Chiefs are due for some regression and I love the Browns with Gregg Williams at the helm to be one of the first teams to slow down this high-powered Chiefs offense. From everything coming out of Cleveland, players are fired up about Hue Jackson being ousted and I think Williams will give the Browns the spark they need to keep this game close. The Browns have played nearly every opponent close this year and I bet they do the same again this week. Call me crazy, sprinkle the money line too. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens 11/4 - 12:00pm CT

Line: Ravens -2.5
Betting Percentages Split: 78% of tickets on the Steelers
The play: Ravens -2.5

Buy low, sell high time people. Just a few weeks ago, the Ravens were a trendy Super Bowl sleeper pick. Fast forward after two losses and everyone seems to forget that not too long ago they were the consensus best defense in the NFL. Conversely, everyone seems to have forgotten about the problems the Steelers had at the beginning of the year and have penciled them in to be in the AFC championship hunt once again. Not so fast my friends, I love this spot for some regression to the mean for two teams that at the end of the day are probably fairly even. In a divisional game, I’ll take the contrarian home team with a short line. Take the Ravens laying 2.5. 

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos 11/4 - 3:20pm CT

Line: Broncos -1
Betting Percentages Split: 72% of tickets on the Texans 
The play: Broncos -1

This is my favorite game of the week, by a pretty wide margin. It has every single one the indicators I look for when handicapping an NFL game. First, it’s a perfect sell high spot for the Texans who are now right in the midst of the playoff hunt. Secondly, it’s a great buy low spot for the Broncos, who are better team than their record indicates (they’ve had the misfortune of already playing the Chiefs twice). Thirdly, we have a public overreaction to the trading of Demariyus Thomas, a move that has nothing to do with this Broncos team, they simply were not going to resign him and wanted to extract some value (stop me if you’ve heard that before). And lastly, we have HEAVY public action on a small road dog, public dogs have fleas ladies and gentlemen and I’ll take the Broncos giving 1 at Mile High all day.

Bonus College Game: Missouri vs. Florida 11/3 - 3:00pm CT

Line: Florida -6
Betting Percentages Split: 80% of tickets on Florida
The play: Missouri +6

Missouri is the best 4-4 team in the country. Period. They should not have lost to Kentucky last week, they understandably lost to Alabama and they actually outgained Georgia in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated (Missouri was plagued by a few costly turnovers and still covered). I loved them last week at Kentucky and they let me down after a late kick off return for a touchdown by the Wildcats and I am going back to the well here. Florida’s defensive strength in their run stopping ability, not on their back end, and I love this to be a breakout spot for Drew Lock to put up some big numbers and Missouri finally get the big win they deserve this year.

The Daily Line Podcast: Should 9.5 point favorite Notre Dame be worried about Northwestern?

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NBC SPORTS CHICAGO

The Daily Line Podcast: Should 9.5 point favorite Notre Dame be worried about Northwestern?

Another week, another Bears line with a lot of movement. Sam Panayotovich is in studio from Vegas joining Joe Ostrowski, Paul Aspan and Ryan McGuffey. Will the Bears cover -10 in Buffalo against Nathan Peterman? (2:15). Plus when are the best times to ‘buy the hook’ ? (10:00) “Fraud or For Real” returns with two NFC contenders under the microscope (12:30). Does Notre Dame have anything to worry about as a 9.5 point favorite against Northwestern under the lights in Evanston – plus just how much of an underdog the oddsmakers think the Irish are in a potential playoff game against Alabama (17:30). And of course, the guys make their weekend picks. (24:20)

Listen here or in the embedded player below!